US embassy cable - 05CAIRO6939

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 006939 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S SEPTEMBER 7 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: FIRST 
TAKE 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
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Summary 
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1. (SBU) Egypt held the first competitive presidential 
election in its history on September 7. Key themes from 
today's voting, as observed by contacts and emboffs in the 
field, have been an apparently low turnout, a predominantly 
calm atmosphere, with scattered exceptions, and often 
disorganized and inconsistent procedures inside polling 
stations.  Observers were startled by the Presidential 
Election Commission's late-breaking reversal, two hours into 
the voting, of its long standing prohibition on access to 
polling stations by domestic election monitors.  Predictably, 
at polling sites across the country, the presence and 
organization of the ruling NDP dwarfed all of the 
competition.  There have been several reports of problems 
between police and domestic monitors, but those we have 
looked into have turned out to be minor incidents.  Polls 
officially remain open until 10PM tonight.  Counting will 
begin sometime thereafter.  Official results are not expected 
until late Thursday at the earliest.  Egypt appears to have 
cleared an important hurdle in staging elections that 
featured no major instances of violence or unrest.  However, 
the results, in which Mubarak will inevitably prevail, will 
be controversial.  Official turnout figures, should they be 
far at odds with independent assesments, could be 
particularly contentious.  End summary. 
 
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Turnout 
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2. (SBU) We continue to have an overall, anecdotal impression 
of a low turnout, although a few polling stations we have 
seen during the day had long lines.  An Embassy team visiting 
Nasr City, a crowded suburb east of Cairo, reported in the 
late afternoon that polling stations there had been virtually 
deserted.  Polls, which opened at 8 this morning, officially 
remain open until 10PM.  Some have speculated that turnout 
could pickup as the weather cools after dusk, although it 
would not be surprising if many polling stations close 
earlier, especially if the stream of voters appears to be 
petering out. 
 
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Election Commission's Late-Breaking Reversal 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) In a very surprising move, the Presidential Election 
Commission (PEC), announced on State TV at approximately 1030 
local, more than two hours after polls had opened, that 
domestic election monitors could be admitted to polling 
stations.  The announcement reversed the PEC's previously 
steadfast position against the admission of monitors to the 
polling sites, an issue which had been the subject of much 
domestic and international criticism and several legal cases. 
 Leaders of domestic monitoring groups we spoke with were 
scathing of the PEC in reaction, describing the move as a 
cynical gesture for international consumption that came too 
late to have practical benefit at home.  (Comment:  While it 
is not yet clear how many domestic monitors were able, in 
light of the late decision, to enter polling places, the move 
set an important precedent.  It will now be difficult if not 
impossible for the GOE to refuse domestic monitors access to 
polling places in November's legislative elections and in 
future polls.  End comment.) 
 
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Observers 
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4. (SBU) Embassy teams visited dozens of polling stations 
around Cairo and in eight provinces across Egypt.  In many 
cases, police and local elites welcomed Emboffs to polling 
stations and gave them coffee and a tour of the facility. 
However, an Emboff in eastern Sinai was taken to a police 
station and questioned at length by a local State Security 
representative.  Inexplicably, however, the same police who 
had marched him to the station subsequently took him on a 
tour of local polling stations, and they parted on friendly 
terms. 
 
5. (SBU) Despite the mid-morning decree by the Presidential 
Elections Commission reversing their earlier prohibition on 
admitting domestic monitors to polling stations, it is still 
unclear, as noted above, how many of these monitors 
ultimately gained access to the polling places.  There have 
been scattered reports of problems between police and 
monitors (see paras 11 and 12), but we do not currently have 
any confirmed or detailed information on serious incidents. 
 
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Procedures 
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6. (SBU) In keeping with Egyptian electoral traditions, many 
of today's voters arrived at the polls in buses and minivans 
provided by their employers and/or local political elites, 
often decorated with pro-Mubarak banners and slogans.  The 
majority of polling stations we saw today were also plastered 
with Mubarak paraphernalia, and many poll workers were 
themselves sporting Mubarak T-shirts, buttons, and hats 
supplied by the ruling NDP. 
 
7. (SBU) Contacts in the opposition Wafd and Ghad parties, 
whose candidates No'man Gom'a and Ayman Nour were Mubarak's 
most serious, if distant, competitors, told us they felt 
hampered by their inability (due to lack of personnel) to 
post representatives in all of the polling stations.  A Wafd 
party representative also told us their complaints about 
Mubarak posters in the polling places were rebuffed by 
electoral officials, who said that, as head of state, his 
portrait must be displayed in public facilities such as 
schools. 
 
8. (SBU) In many (but not all) polling stations, voters' 
thumbs were dipped in phosphoric ink as a safeguard against 
multiple voting (an apparently widespread problem in the May 
25 constitutional referendum).  However, Gameela Ismail, wife 
of candidate Ayman Nour, asserted in a widely broadcast 
mobile phone text message that the ink was easily removed 
with deodorant. (Note: We have not had the opportunity to 
test this assertion.  End note.) 
 
9. (SBU) Across Egypt, chaotic and disorganized voter lists 
appeared to be the rule rather than the exception.  Numerous 
anecdotes from the field suggest that many who turned out to 
vote left frustrated after being unable to locate their name 
or designated polling station.  Officials at a Cairo police 
station, where many went to search for their names on the 
voters' lists, opined that the rolls were particularly 
disorganized due to the hasty consolidation of polling 
stations to allow for judicial coverage.  On the other 
extreme were reports, particularly in Alexandria, that 
polling stations were admitting anyone with a national i.d. 
card, in violation of published procedures, and with 
implications for fraud. 
 
10. (SBU) In several instances, both in Cairo and in the 
provinces, Emboffs noted groups of voters gathered near 
polling stations, carrying LE 20 notes (about USD 3.50), - 
perhaps financial enticements to come down and vote.  In 
other areas, such as the Shubra district of Northern Cairo, 
local elites put out tables of complimentary fast food and 
soft drinks near polling stations to induce local citizens to 
come to the polls. 
 
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Violence/Voter Intimidation 
--------------------------- 
 
11. (SBU) The protest group Kifaya staged a demonstration of 
800-1000 persons in Cairo's Tahrir Square midday.  A Kifaya 
statement released subsequently confirmed our observations 
that police had allowed the event to proceed without 
incident.  However, a smaller group of Kifaya members 
reportedly clashed with unidentified thugs, possibly ruling 
NDP supporters or, according to an unconfirmed report, 
plainclothes police.  Several Kifaya members were lightly 
injured. 
 
12. (SBU) A report that four domestic monitors were beaten 
and detained in Assiyut, Upper Egypt, appears to have been 
exaggerated - a representative of the domestic monitoring 
coalition confirmed to us that one of its volunteers in 
Assiyut was slapped by police, and several briefly detained, 
but noted that following an intervention with State Security, 
the situation was resolved and all four had been allowed to 
resume their monitoring activities.  There are several other 
reports of incidents involving domestic monitors in Upper 
Egypt and the Delta, but details remain sketchy.  Another 
contact advised us of report that a judge in Minya 
supervising a polling station had been injured in an 
altercation with an unidentified party candidate 
representative.  Our Embassy observer in the city later 
determined that there had indeed been a shoving match between 
a judge and an NDP representative, when the latter tried to 
interfere in the process.  The judge emerged unscathed in a 
prevailed in the dispute. 
 
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Next Steps 
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13. (SBU) Polls officially close at 10PM local.  Some have 
speculated that turnout could pickup after dusk, when the 
weather cools, although many polling stations will probably 
close early, should turnout remain low.  Only after 10PM will 
counting begin.  We are unlikely to have any official results 
or statistics until late Thursday at the earliest. 
 
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Comment 
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14. (SBU) As of early evening, Egypt appears to have cleared 
a key hurdle in avoiding any major instances of violence or 
unrest associated with the elections.  The results, in which 
Mubarak will certainly prevail, will be controversial - and 
opposition candidates will inevitably cry fraud.  Official 
turnout statistics will also be closely and skeptically 
scrutinized.  It seems likely that the findings of domestic 
monitors will track with our impression of a low voter 
turnout.  The GOE will seek to present as high a 
participation figure as they can in order to confer 
legitimacy on Mubarak's reelection, but should the official 
figure be far at odds with the estimates of domestic 
monitors, and even the increasingly assertive and bold 
Egyptian judges who supervised the polls, it will risk 
achieving the opposite result.  End comment. 
 
 
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