US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS3276

S E C R E T BRUSSELS 003276 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, SY, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU WILL NOT MEET SYRIA AT THE UNGA; WANTS TO KNOW 
LONG TERM STRATEGY 
 
REF: STATE 159137 
 
Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Kyle Scott for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (S) SUMMARY.  Syria has not yet approached the EU for 
possible meetings during the UNGA, but officials assure us 
they will send a unified position against high level 
meetings.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 1.  (S) Mission drew on reftel points in a September 6 
discussion with EU Special Representative for the Middle East 
Peace Process, Marc Otte.  He said that he is not surprised 
by Syria's attempt to conduct a "charm offensive" at the UNGA 
summit.  Although the EU has not yet been approached, Otte is 
certain the Syrians will approach all EU member states.  In 
fact, the Austrian government has already asked Otte for his 
guidance, following presentation of our demarche in Vienna. 
Otte confirmed that the EU will continue in the same line, 
sending unified messages to the Syrians, using the 
Roed-Larsen channel.  Otte said he has not been in Damascus 
since before the Hariri assassination.  Since then the EU has 
abstained from meeting and their only contact has been 
through the Barcelona Process. 
 
2.  (S) Otte cautioned that this unified message cannot last 
forever.  Otte wants us to develop a long term strategy 
assessing the reasons for the isolation and defining what we 
would consider progress.  There are social currents in Syria 
that want to see things change.  We need to support those 
currents, and that will require some kind of engagement at 
some time in the future. 
 
3.  (S) Regarding Barcelona, Otte asked for U.S. views on 
Syrian participation at the Barcelona 10th anniversary 
meeting.  It would be difficult to try to exclude member 
states from this heads of state level meeting.  Otte also 
asked for U.S. views on coordination with other Arab 
countries.  The Arab League, for example, continues to have a 
Syrian delegation. 
 
4.  (S) In a separate meeting, Wolfgang Barwinkle, from the 
Council's Middle East Directorate, agreed the Asad regime has 
an abysmal record.  However, he opined that Syria has the 
potential to develop into another Iraq and suggested the 
current regime might be better than what could replace it. 
He labeled Asad a weak dictator, and suggested it is 
potentially more dangerous to isolate his regime.  That said, 
Barwinkle confirmed that the EU would remain on message 
regarding Syria.  He promised to advise us if the Syrians 
approach the EU. 
.