US embassy cable - 05MINSK1062

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001062 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KIEV FOR USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, BO 
SUBJECT: Regional Opposition Malaise 
 
Refs: (A) Minsk 838, (B) Minsk 728 
 
Classified by Charge Constance Phlipot for Reasons 1.4 
(B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: In the past month Poloffs visited three 
mid-sized Belarusian cities, each an hour or two from 
Minsk, to the west, northeast and southeast.  In each we 
found a shrinking and demoralized opposition struggling to 
stay alive.  Most were at a loss as to how to promote 
themselves to the populace, in the face of fears of 
government repression.  Contacts between pro-democracy 
forces and local independent newspapers were surprisingly 
poor.  Based on past travel, Post unfortunately believes 
the picture presented in these three cities is typical of 
that across Belarus.  When asked what could change their 
fortunes around, all asked for increased access to 
independent information, including radio broadcasting from 
abroad.  End summary. 
 
 
Bobruisk: Pressure Up, but Hope Remains 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Emboffs met August 10 with representatives of 
political parties and civil society in Bobruisk, two hours 
southeast of Minsk.  Political parties were represented by 
the UCP, BNF, and Kozulin Social-Democrats; NGOs by 
Partnership, Malady Front and the Belarus Free Trade Union. 
The opposition in Bobruisk is more united than is the norm 
and, unlike in many other regional cities, these groups all 
have worked together for some time.  [Note: the pro- 
democracy Communists were noticeably absent.]  In fact, all 
these groups are working with Aleksandr Kozulin's Social- 
Democratic party to collect signatures for Kozulin's 
People's Will movement.  Such unity is lacking on the 
national level. 
 
3. (C) All agreed that repression and fear tactics against 
civil society are increasing.  The local UCP leader was 
recently fined USD 600 for organizing an ABA/CEELI seminar 
in Bobruisk, and most of the civil society members at the 
meeting had been fired from their job in the past year. 
They said that five years ago the typical fine for civil 
disobedience was USD 15, now it is over USD 1,000.  They 
claimed everyone in Bobruisk who ran as an independent 
(i.e.- anti-Lukashenko) candidate in the 2004 parliamentary 
elections has been fired.  Malady Front reported MF 
member's parents have been threatened with the loss of 
their jobs and student members have been ordered by the GOB 
to work in Chernobyl contaminated areas after graduation 
[note: Emboffs have heard the same from youth groups in 
other cities].  No party or NGO in Bobruisk has been able 
to find or register legal office space, so these groups 
have no place to meet (Emboffs met them in a park).  Almost 
all claimed their organizations have not been able to 
attract new members for several years.  The only exception 
was the local social democrat, who said her party benefited 
from its recent ouster of former party leader Nikolay 
Statkevich. 
 
4. (C) Despite this pressure, the group expressed some 
hope.  They had recently succeeded in hosting two local 
conferences to choose delegates for the opposition's single 
candidate process.  Although police came and filmed the 
events, they allowed them to proceed.  All our 
interlocutors agreed that the people in rural areas and 
small towns near Bobruisk do not support Lukashenko, but 
rather vote for him from a lack of information.  Malady 
Front regularly sends members to nearby villages and towns 
to speak to people about alternatives to Lukashenko; the 
local MF leader claimed these people are usually excited to 
talk to his group.  The party leaders said they wished they 
had resources to pass out fliers to inform citizens of 
their legal rights and to highlight the growing price 
discrepancies in basic foodstuffs and commodities between 
rural areas and Minsk (they claimed the GOB is keeping 
prices low in Minsk).  All felt the local independent press 
is too timid and afraid to cover political issues. 
However, the party leaders admitted their parties did 
little to publicize the GOB's election fraud in 2004 
elections. 
 
 
A Timid Bobruisk Press 
---------------------- 
 
 
MINSK 00001062  002 OF 003 
 
 
5. (C) On August 10 Emboffs also met with three members of 
Bobruisk's independent press.  Bobruisk has four 
independent papers: the weekly Bobruisk Courier (5,000 
copies), the weekly Telegraf (20,000), and the bi-weekly 
Commercial Courier (15,000) and Vcherniy Bobruisk (12,000). 
In contrast, the two local state papers have a total 
circulation of 15,000 copies.  Despite this advantage in 
numbers, all agreed the independent press operates at a 
disadvantage.  They complained they do not have access to 
government officials or the ever-popular crime reporting 
from police; at times the city government tells them to 
avoid certain stories; and in November the mayor's 
ideological office warned all businesses not to advertise 
in the independent press, but especially not in Bobruisk 
Courier.  Because of this they are losing circulation. 
Moreover, the independent papers are charged twice as much 
as the state papers for use of the post office for 
distribution, further limiting their circulations. 
 
6. (C) All admitted to practicing self-censorship and being 
much less critical of the government since October's 
elections.  Of the four independent papers, Bobruisk 
Courier is considered the most "oppositional" because once 
a month they run one page of news on the local parties and 
NGOs.  However, during the parliamentary campaign not even 
Bobruisk Courier reported on any local campaigns, either 
pro-government or independent, "because no one asked us 
to."  The editor from Vcherniy Bobruisk said he is 
"careful" and avoids provocative issues.  While the other 
three avoid politics, they said they can get away with 
careful reporting on the local economy and society, even if 
it is mildly critical of government.  Some popular stories 
they printed covered rising rent and utility prices, and 
local unemployment. 
 
 
Luckless in Lida 
---------------- 
 
7. (C) On July 29 Poloffs met with local party leaders in 
Lida, western Belarus.  Three people, representing the UCP, 
BNF and Kozulin's BSDPNG met Poloffs on the street and led 
them to a nearby cafe, as they have no offices in that city 
of 200,000.  They lamented the fact few in Lida even know 
political parties exist.  Lida has no independent 
newspapers, and all expressed frustration their party 
leaders rarely if ever visit the city.  The BSDPNG is 
planning to go door-to-door, on behalf of former Respublika 
MP Valeriy Frolov, with a petition calling for changing the 
electoral law.  The other parties had no plan on how to 
promote themselves, but complained about GOB repression and 
how party candidates in the 2004 elections lost their jobs 
because of their political activities.  The only success 
civil society has had in Lida was in registering a local 
branch of the Belarus Language Society.  The local BLS now 
has 200 members, mostly from the Lida Pedagogical 
University, and is growing.  They have not had any trouble 
with the regime and local government has allowed them to 
meet regularly, unobstructed. 
 
 
Borisov's Mayor: Its all Great!! 
-------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) On August 17 Ambassador met the mayor of Borisov, 
who lauded the city's growing economy, low unemployment, 
high pensions, and many private (and solvent) businesses. 
The average income is increasing and the economy is 
attracting large investment.  The mayor told Ambassador the 
local opposition parties are filled with "unlucky, 
unsuccessful people who complain about the government but 
do nothing more."  He dismissed the parties as having no 
influence on society.  When Ambassador asked if the mayor 
had any dialogue with the opposition, he replied that it 
was minimal and not constructive. 
 
 
Borisov's Opposition: Things are Bad!! 
-------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) On August 17 Ambassador met with local parties in 
Borisov, northeast of Minsk.  Present were members of the 
BNF, Kozulin's BSDPNG, and two youth NGOs. All were 
optimistic that once a single opposition candidate is 
chosen, they would have a chance to prevail, but only if 
the public actually notices the "unjustness and 
fabrications in society."  Contrary to the mayor's 
 
MINSK 00001062  003 OF 003 
 
 
statements, the activists claimed Borisov's economy is 
worsening because large scale, high-level theft is rampant. 
The authorities are trying to modernize bankrupt 
industries, but have no money to do so.  At least 38 
percent of Borisov enterprises are bankrupt and there is no 
large-scale investment. 
 
10. (C) The party members informed Ambassador that their 
main setback is the lack of an independent press.  One 
activist spoke of his newspaper, the last remaining 
independent paper in Borisov.  [Note: The mayor told 
Ambassador that the town had five newspapers, four of which 
were independent.]  Unfortunately, the paper was being 
liquidated that day for allegedly printing editorials that 
insulted the editor of the local government newspaper. 
Seventy percent of his newspaper's profits are from 
advertisements, but, as in Bobruisk, businesses are afraid 
to pay for advertising for fear of losing their enterprise. 
 
11. (C) The activists explained how the GOB successfully 
controls society using softened "Stalin-era" tactics. 
Teachers must preach the government's ideology to the 
students and make sure they behave.  If a student is caught 
promoting or practicing ideas not supporting the GOB, then 
the teacher will be blamed and sometimes fired.  Local 
judges must rule in accordance with GOB orders or lose 
their job.  Bosses who do not fire their employees when so 
ordered by the GOB risk losing their own jobs.  One 
activist presented the medical application he received when 
he went to the doctor.  The application, to be filled out 
by patients before their appointment, did not concern 
itself with the patient's health.  Rather, all the 
questions centered on the patient's personal life and 
activities, such as "What countries have you been to?", 
"What was the reason for the trip?", and "Are you a member 
of a political party?" 
 
12. (C) More alarming, these pro-democracy activists said 
their parties are losing members, as most people are tired 
of protesting without seeing any change.  These leaders 
feel most Belarusians believe no alternative to Lukashenko 
exists, and that little will ever change in Belarus.  The 
party members criticized the national opposition leaders 
for wasting all their money on pointless seminars, which 
they viewed as helpful, but attended by only the "elite" of 
the parties. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
13. (C) Unfortunately, the situation in these three cities 
appears typical of that across Belarus, and mirrors what 
Emboffs saw earlier this summer in Molodechno and Grodno 
(reftels).  Part of the opposition's doldrums is that they 
are currently between election campaigns.  Borisov's pro- 
democracy forces, in particular, were active and impressive 
during the 2004 parliamentary campaign.  Hope remains that 
their activities and morale will improve once a single 
opposition candidate is chosen and the opposition starts 
challenging Lukashenko for the presidency.  However, much 
of the current malaise is also a reflection of the growing 
hopelessness of their situation.  After years of struggle 
the opposition appears no closer to achieving democracy. 
Over the past 12 months especially the GOB has increased 
its repressive acts, so much of the opposition now 
struggles to feed their families, let alone fight for 
democracy.  It is uncertain whether they can rally their 
forces for the 2006 presidential campaign. 
 
 
PHLIPOT