US embassy cable - 05FRANKFURT6748

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 006748 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, GM 
SUBJECT: Lafontaine - a Man to Watch in Home State of 
Saarland 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for Internet distribution 
 
REF: A) Berlin 3011, B) Berlin 2988 and Previous, C) Leipzig 
30 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Polls suggest that Germany's new Left 
Party (Linkspartei) could post a breakthrough performance in 
Saarland -- the home of party Co-Chairman (and former 
Minister-President) Oskar Lafontaine -- further compounding 
the SPD's decline in a former stronghold.  By splitting the 
Social-Democratic/SPD vote, Left Party candidates including 
Lafontaine (who is running in hometown Saarbruecken) could 
throw one or more seats to Christian Democrats (CDU). 
Having lost the 2004 state elections, a poor showing on 
September 18 could put SPD state chairman Heiko Maas' 
position in jeopardy.  State Finance Minister Peter Jacoby 
(CDU) appears the favorite to succeed Saarland Minister- 
President Peter Mueller (CDU) should Mueller take a cabinet 
position in Berlin.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) Founded in July, the Linkspartei/Left Party (reftels) 
combines elements of the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS 
-- successor to the east German communist party) and the 
much smaller WASG (Election Alternative for Work and Social 
Justice) based in western Germany.  With the alliance, the 
party has gained a foothold in western Germany and appeals 
to disenchanted and protest voters (including some who 
traditionally favor conservatives). 
 
3. (SBU) Polls and party insiders in Saarland predict the 
Linkspartei will receive over 10% of the state vote (earlier 
polls put the party as high as 20 percent), posing a threat 
to SPD candidates who won all four Saar Bundestag electoral 
districts in 2002.  SPD party manager Stephan Schweizer told 
us the SPD was unlikely to match its 2002 showing in the 
state.  Saarbruecken, usually a safe SPD seat, is in play 
this year since Oskar Lafontaine is running against SPD 
incumbent Elke Ferner.  Although Consulate contacts believe 
that Lafontaine is unlikely to win the seat outright, he is 
likely to split the left vote and throw the seat to the CDU. 
Schweizer notes that SPD candidates avoid attacking 
Lafontaine directly because of his continuing hometown 
popularity and because many SPD members sympathize 
ideologically with their former party chairman. 
 
SPD Chairman Rejects Coalition, Future Uncertain 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
4. (SBU) SPD State Chairman Heiko Maas, who has ruled out a 
coalition with the Linkspartei in media statements, could 
lose his job if the SPD showing in Saarland (a former 
stronghold) falls significantly below the national average. 
On the other hand, Maas remains personally popular and 
Saarland insiders tell us he remains a strong potential 
challenger to any successor of CDU Minister-President Peter 
Mueller, should Mueller take a position in a Merkel cabinet. 
(NOTE: Sources in Saarland speculate that state Finance 
Minister Peter Jacoby is the strong favorite to succeed 
Mueller at this point.  END NOTE). 
 
Grassroots Success 
------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) SPD representatives are concerned that the 
Linkspartei is gaining grassroots support within labor and 
civil society.  Schweizer pointed out that at companies like 
Ford (which has a large facility in Saarlouis) the 
Linkspartei recently gained works council majorities.  The 
Linkspartei has also done well in recruiting disenchanted 
SPD members in Saarland.  Schweizer and others have 
conjectured that the Linkspartei might also poll well in 
areas (such as Voelklingen) where the far-right National 
Democratic Party (NPD) has had success.  (NOTE: The NPD 
received 4% of the vote in 2004 Saarland state elections. 
END NOTE).  The SPD still enjoys the largest membership of 
any party in Saarland and (according to Schweizer) has 
reportedly stopped the erosion of its membership base there. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (SBU) In sum, the enduring popularity of Oskar Lafontaine 
in Saarland may well give the Left Party its best showing in 
western Germany, hurting SPD candidates.  Although the newly 
formed party may not win a direct seat, a strong showing in 
western Germany as a whole would boost the party in its neck- 
and-neck race with the Greens and the FDP -- and potentially 
give Lafontaine added clout within a new Bundestag caucus. 
END COMMENT. 
 
BODDE