US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1391

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 001391 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN GOVERNOR UNSEATED BY ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary. Following the Anambra State electoral 
tribunal's overturning of the 2003 gubernatorial election on 
August 12, the state's political climate continues to seethe. 
 Electoral tribunal loser, current Governor Ngige had 
signalled his willingness to step down to aides of 
Governor-designate Obi.  However, when Ngige and Obi met, the 
former performed a volte face and disclaimed a willingness to 
step down.  Ngige swore to pursue his appeal, while Obi and 
All Peoples Grand Alliance (APGA) party national chairman 
Victor Umeh responded by hurling sharp public statements at 
Ngige.  Meanwhile, the Independent National Electoral 
Commission (INEC), perhaps spurred by the third protagonist 
in this enveloping drama Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 
strongman Chris Uba, is also appealing the tribunal's verdict 
in hopes of calling a new election.  The quadrille being 
played by Ngige, Obi, INEC, and Uba has begun to reheat 
Anambra, which has already experienced an unhealthy portion 
of political violence.  We are advising all sides toward 
conciliation, the rule of law and for keeping verbal arrows 
in their quivers for the time being.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) Immediately after the electoral tribunal threw out 
Anambra's 2003 gubernatorial election, governor Chris Ngige 
filed a twenty-two page appeal, listing twelve grounds, 
including lack of jurisdiction.  Ngige hopes the appeal will 
reverse the tribunal decision, thus allowing him to keep his 
seat.  INEC has joined the appeal, but INEC wants a new 
election.  INEC may be acting in favor of Chris Uba, a PDP 
heavy and ally of President Obasanjo.  Uba was formerly 
Ngige's patron, but the two have become mortal enemies and 
Uba has been after Ngige's position ever since. 
 
3.  (C) Over the August 27-28 weekend, Ngige met new APGA 
national chairman Victor Umeh.  During this meeting, Ngige 
seemed conciliatory and suggested he was amenable to a 
settlement with Obi provided Ngige could remain "politically 
relevant," Umeh told the Consul General during their August 
29 meeting.  "Ngige has always wanted to be a senator, and we 
are willing to offer this to him for 2007," Umeh told the 
Consul General.  Because of Ngige's apparent flexibility, 
Umeh arranged a meeting between Ngige and Obi. 
 
4.  (C) At the meeting with Obi, a different Ngige attended, 
lamented Umeh.  Seeing Obi was like casting the red flag 
before a wounded bull, Umeh recounted.  Instead of speaking 
about a settlement, an animated Ngige asserted he had 
discovered additional grounds for appeal, that he would win 
the appeal and would not entertain any thought of political 
compromise.  At that point, both Obi and Umeh erupted, and 
the meeting quickly turned vituperative and ended frostily. 
Obi and Umeh carried the spirit of the meeting with them in 
their most recent press encounters where they literally 
excoriated Ngige.  Ngige has publicly returned the insults. 
 
5.  (C) During his conversation with the Consul General, Umeh 
feared the failed meeting between Obi and Ngige would provide 
space that Chris Uba might exploit.  At the end of the day, 
Obi and Ngige have more in common than either of them with 
Uba who wants to politically obliterate both from Anambra. 
Umeh said that he would try to bring envoys of Obi and Ngige 
back together to see if they can pick up the shattered glass 
from the meeting of their principals.  If the relationship 
between obi and Ngige were allowed to degenerate and if Uba 
tried to wedge himself into the gap, Anambra would spit into 
three strong competing camps.  Political violence would be a 
near certain, Umeh feared.  At that point, the Consul General 
counselled patience, further dialogue and respect for the 
rule of law.  He also stressed the need for the major players 
to holster their tongues in public lest their statements 
inflame followers to commit acts no responsible person wants 
to see. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.   (C) Anambra is uneasily quiet for now.  However, the 
state is roiling under the surface.  Both Obi and Ngige will 
have to show greater restraint and statesmanship for Anambra 
to remain at ease during the period.  Notwithstanding the 
court battle, Obi and Ngige could possibly strike a deal -- 
after all, Ngige needs a party to belong to if he is going to 
play politics in 2007.  He cannot return to the PDP.  Obi's 
APGA is the only real alternative in Anambra.  Moreover, both 
men have to be looking over their shoulders at Chris Uba.  If 
they reach an accord, it could pacify Anambra politics.  If 
not, expect another round of tension and more in Anambra. 
End Comment. 
BROWNE