US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI3643

UNCLAS NAIROBI 003643 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT: KENYA CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM SET FOR 21 NOVEMBER 
 
REF: A. (A) NAIROBI 3593 
     B. (B) NAIROBI 3499 
     C. (C) NAIROBI 3487 (D) NAIOBI 3444 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Kenyan authorities have set 21 November 
as the date for the national referendum on the proposed new 
constitution.  With a date in sight, both sides of the debate 
are gearing up their campaigns, even while the election 
officials warn both sides about campaigning and conducting 
civic education, and admonish the Government for 
partisanship.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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A Date is Set and the Clock Starts Ticking 
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2.  (SBU)  Samuel Kivuitu, Chairman of the Electoral 
Commission of Kenya, announced on September 5 that the 
national referendum on the proposed new constitution will be 
held on November 21.  Results should be announced on November 
23.  The one question to be put before the people:  are they 
for or against ratification of the new draft.  Following 
Kivuitu,s announcement, new voter registration was suspended 
and voter registries will be inspected for irregularities 
from September 19 to October 18.  Kivuitu also designated 
October 21 to November 19 as the period for campaigning on 
the referendum, although it is evident that both sides of the 
debate have been busy rallying supporters to their cause 
since the August 24 release of the draft.  Kivuitu gave no 
indication of what constitutes &campaigning8 nor of 
possible sanctions for violating the official campaigning 
period. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Kivuitu stressed that responsibility for 
conducting civic education, focusing on educating voters 
about the content of the draft constitution, rests primarily 
with the (independent) Constitution of Kenya Review 
Commission (CKRC).  The CKRC is itself divided on the draft 
constitution (ref D).  Kivuitu warned the Government against 
delegating these responsibilities to the (Ministry-directed) 
provincial administration.  Any attempts to delegate 
responsibility for civic education may be perceived as a 
method to ensure the content of that education leads voters 
to support the Government,s position.  Kivuitu even went so 
far as to admonish the Government for taking a side in the 
debate and warned against making promises in return for 
support of the draft as a possible abuse of state resources. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Kivuitu,s remarks may have been made in response 
to the September 4 announcement that a team of 27 MPs had 
been formed to spearhead the government,s &Yes8 campaign 
in civic education.  The &Yes8 camp is gearing up for the 
fight ahead, with President Kibaki having already addressed 
several public rallies throughout the country.  A major 
&Yes8 rally is planned for Nairobi,s Uhuru Park in two 
weeks time, significantly before the October 21 start of the 
official campaigning period. 
 
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COMMENT: The Gloves are Off 
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5.  (SBU)  Funding of the &Yes8 and &No8 campaigns will 
play a critical role, especially if one side (the &No8 
campaign) is disadvantaged by its limited access to 
resources.  Opponents of the draft expressed concern over Sh4 
billion set aside for civic education.  Shadow Finance 
Minister Billow Kerrow warned the government against using 
those and other public resources to finance the &Yes8 
campaign, while the Education Minister George Saitoti raised 
questions about the sources of funding for opponents to the 
draft.  Accusations of misuse and other such attacks by both 
sides are likely to increase as both campaigns struggle to 
gain supporters in the ten weeks leading up to the 
referendum.  END COMMENT. 
BELLAMY