US embassy cable - 05MINSK1055

UNCLAS MINSK 001055 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR DRL, INR 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID/E&E/DGST PETER GRAVES 
KIEV FOR AID 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, BO 
SUBJECT: Media Polling: Most Watch, Distrust State News 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: On September 2 the head of the IISEPS 
polling service provided polling results for a June poll 
ISEPS conducted on media access in Belarus.  The poll found 
that a minority of Belarusians have access to satellite TV 
or the internet, and that over 80% watch Belarusian state 
television news at least weekly.  Despite this high rate of 
viewership, most Belarusians distrust the official news and 
desire alternate sources of information.  Unsurprisingly, 
age and lack of education correlate highly with state news 
viewership and support for Lukashenko.  Meanwhile, access to 
satellite TV and the internet seems to play some role in 
political activism, as measured by membership in parties and 
NGOs.  Overall, some 80% of Belarusians claim to speak 
Russian as their daily language.  End summary. 
 
 
Media Polling 
------------- 
 
2. (U) Manaev also provided Poloff the results of a June 
IISEPS poll on Belarusians' media habits.  The polling found 
the following: 
 
 
Do you have access to the following at home or work? 
 
Satellite television      17.1% 
FM radio                  61.9 
AM or shortwave radio     28.3 
Internet                  21.0 
 
 
How often do you watch news on Belarusian state television? 
 
Daily                31.9% 
Few times a week     31.3 
Once a week          18.0 
Once a month          9.1 
Never                 8.7 
 
 
How do you rate the accurateness and objectivity of state TV 
news? 
 
Very accurate        21.5% 
Somewhat accurate    38.7 
Rarely accurate      21.3 
Not accurate         16.3 
 
 
Is there enough information about the situation in Belarus, 
or would you prefer alternate sources of information? 
 
Enough            32.4% 
Would like more   66.4 
 
3. (SBU) Manaev concludes from the above questions that 
there is a demand in Belarus for more independent news 
sources. 
 
4. (U) IISEPS also cross-tabulated its media results with 
its regular political polling questions to find how 
Belarusians who have access to different sources of 
information rate the political scene.  These cross tabs 
found the following: 
 
 
Are you pleased with how Lukashenko is handling his 
presidency? 
 
                Satellite    FM    AM/SW    Internet    BT* 
 
Very pleased       6.0%     16.1    11.0       5.9     38.9 
Somewhat          34.6      38.8    40.4      30.6     42.7 
More displeased   32.6      26.6    31.4      29.2     13.0 
Very displeased   26.2      18.2    17.0      34.0      4.8 
 
*BT denotes those who watch state television news daily 
 
 
Would you vote to re-elect Lukashenko, or is it time to give 
someone else the chance to do better? 
 
                Satellite    FM    AM/SW    Internet    BT 
 
Re-elect Luka     20.9%     34.6    30.0      17.5     64.5 
Someone else      66.6      53.2    56.4      68.6     22.6 
Hard to answer    12.1      12.0    13.3      13.5     12.0 
 
 
If Lukashenko runs for a third term, how will you vote? 
 
                Satellite    FM    AM/SW    Internet    BT 
 
For Lukashenko    11.5%     22.2    17.5       9.2     46.2 
Leaning to 
   Lukashenko     12.7      16.9    17.3      12.9     21.1 
Leaning to dem 
   Candidate      24.5      14.2    16.4      21.5      7.2 
For democratic 
   Candidate      16.5      12.2    14.9      22.0      2.8 
For neither        6.0       4.9     6.2       6.9      2.0 
Undecided         28.8      29.6    27.7      27.5     20.7 
 
 
5. (U) Unsurprisingly, the IISEPS poll found that most 
Belarusians who watch state news daily are over 50 years of 
age (63.5%), have monthly salaries below USD 110 (69.5%), 
and are less educated (74% high school or less). 
 
6. (U) A surprising finding is that there is little direct 
correlation between salary and access to satellite 
television or the internet.  In fact, 74.6% of those with 
access to satellite television earn between USD 70 to USD 
220 a month, while 69.3% of those with internet access fall 
into the same salary range.  The only major difference is 
more (16.3% vs. 9.9%) people earning less than USD 70/month 
have internet access compared to satellite TV.  This 
statistic presumably reflects students with access through 
their schools.  There are no major salary differences 
between those with access to FM or AM/SW radio. 
 
7. (U) Access to independent or external information does 
appear to affect, at least in a limited manner, political 
activism: 
 
 
Do you belong to any political parties or NGOs? 
 
                Satellite    FM    AM/SW    Internet    BT 
 
Party member       3.9%      1.1     1.6       2.5      0.6 
NGO member        11.5       8.8    11.8      13.8      6.0 
Neither           84.9      90.2    86.2      83.3     93.1 
 
 
8. (U) What language do you use in your everyday life? 
 
                Satellite    FM    AM/SW    Internet    BT 
 
Belarusian        7.5%      10.0    12.9       6.1     16.1 
Russian          82.9       85.7    79.6      90.5     72.0 
Both              4.7        2.2     3.7       1.9      5.2 
A hybrid of both  3.3        1.7     3.1       0.5      6.3 
 
 
9. (SBU) Comment: It is unsurprising, given state media's 
core demographic and its blatant editorial bias, that those 
who watch state news daily are much more likely to support 
Lukashenko.  Some of the support for an alternate candidate 
by those with access to satellite TV and the internet is 
likely a result of who has access - younger professionals 
with higher educations.  However, as the data on party and 
NGO membership shows, it is likely that having access to 
outside sources of information results in greater political 
activism and personal participation, which in the Belarusian 
context means greater opposition to Lukashenko. 
 
 
PHLIPOT