US embassy cable - 05MINSK1054

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IISEPS in Trouble Again

Identifier: 05MINSK1054
Wikileaks: View 05MINSK1054 at Wikileaks.org
Origin: Embassy Minsk
Created: 2005-09-06 14:44:00
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Tags: PHUM PGOV BO
Redacted: This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #1054 2491444
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061444Z SEP 05
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2916
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3109
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 2882
RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3340
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1390
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3008
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0637
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS MINSK 001054 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR DRL 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID/E&E/DGST PETER GRAVES 
KIEV FOR AID 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, BO 
SUBJECT: IISEPS in Trouble Again 
 
Ref: Minsk 436 
 
1. (SBU) On September 2 Oleg Manaev, head of the deregistered 
polling agency IISEPS, discussed IISEPS' latest troubles with the 
authorities with Poloff.  Belarus' Supreme Court revoked IISEPS' 
registration in April (reftel).  Maneav subsequently registered 
IISEPS in Lithuania.  In July, the Ministry of Justice sent Manaev 
a warning, accusing IISEPS of continuing to operate, and asked him 
to visit the MOJ to discuss.  Manaev disregarded the summons.  On 
August 26 the Minsk Department of Internal Affairs Office of Mass 
Actions summoned Manaev for a one-hour talk.  [Note: this office 
usually deals with mass protests.]  The police told him they did 
not want to deal with this, but the MOJ had ordered them to "talk" 
with Manaev.  The MOJ claimed the MFA told them the OSCE in Vienna 
had quoted some IISEPS June polling data, so this was proof IISEPS 
was operating illegally. 
 
2. (SBU) To clear things up (and avoid arrest), Manaev went with 
the police to the MOJ.  Manaev admitted IISEPS had been 
deregistered, that he had re-registered in Vilnius, and that 
IISEPS' former members had conducted a June poll.  However, he 
argued IISEPS' former members conducted the poll not as an 
organization, but as a group of private individuals, which is not 
illegal.  According to Manaev, this flummoxed the MOJ.  Manaev was 
released, but only after signing a written statement of what he had 
told the MOJ.  Manaev thinks the GOB is looking for any legal way 
to shut IISEPS down in advance of 2006's presidential elections. 
Now that they have failed in this bureaucratic attempt, he fears 
the GOB will next employ violence. 
 
3. (SBU) Comment: Post aggress with Manaev that the GOB is likely 
seeking means to silence his organization before the 2006 
elections.  Belarus' other independent polling service, NOVAK, is 
currently under heavy financial pressure from the regime.  However, 
to date Post has seen few cases where the Lukashenko regime has 
turned to violence.  For the most part, the GOB prefers to use 
quasi-legal methods to silence the opposition.  Rather than 
violence, Post feels Manaev and IISEPS are more likely to face 
exorbitant fines for their continued polling activities. 
 
 
PHLIPOT 

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