US embassy cable - 05AMMAN7122

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 007122 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN REACTION TO DRAFT IRAQI CONSTITUTION 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 7071 
     B. AMMAN 6689 
 
Classified By: DCM Daniel Rubinstein for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary and Comment.  Post contacts outside the GOJ 
have been uniformly negative in their reaction to the draft 
Iraqi constitution, despite statements by the King and other 
senior officials (ref A) encouraging the continuation of the 
political process that produced the document.  The highly 
critical comments from contacts and the press are alarmist, 
but reflect widespread public opinion in Jordan.  Almost all 
of Jordan's Muslims are Sunnis, and many harbor deeply 
ingrained suspicions, if not outright prejudice, toward Iraqi 
Shiites.  In addition, television images of Sunni groups in 
Iraq marching against the draft constitution has stoked 
fears, already high after the August 19 terrorist attack in 
Aqaba, that continuing violence could somehow spill over into 
Jordan (ref B).  End Summary and Comment. 
 
2.  (C) Former Jordanian ambassador to Iraq (and current 
Senator) Faleh Al-Taweel commended to us provisions related 
to political pluralism and religious freedom, but quickly 
added that most of the draft constitution was "very 
dangerous" to the unity of Iraq.  In Taweel's opinion, the 
document, if ratified, will strengthen Iranian influence in 
southern Iraq, embolden the Kurds to eventually form a 
separate state, and possibly lead to a civil war among 
competing regions and ethnic groups.  He chastised the U.S. 
for trying to drum up support for this "fake constitution," 
and warned that the marginalization of Sunni negotiators 
would encourage insurgents to step up their attacks.  Oraib 
Rantawi, head of the Al-Quds Political Research Center, 
criticized the U.S. for "rushing" the constitutional process 
and insisting on completion of a document before a consensus 
could be reached.  Rantawi said the draft constitution would 
institutionalize power in separatist Kurds and "men loyal to 
Iran," and pave the way for even more violence.  Dr. Suleiman 
Arabiyat, a respected academic and president of Mu'tah 
University, denounced the draft constitution for "ignoring 
the Arab identity of Iraq."  He stated that by sidelining the 
Sunni minority and giving ultimate political control to Shia 
and Kurdish leaders intent on pursuing their own personal 
agendas, the draft constitution would only prolong 
instability and violence in Iraq. 
 
3.  (U) In general, commentary in the local press has echoed 
these criticisms, and reflects a highly pessimistic take on 
recent events in Iraq.  Media commentator Raja Taleb, for 
example, noted that while it was an important first step, the 
draft constitution had given too much to the Shia and nothing 
to the Sunnis, who he insists are the unifying linchpin of 
Iraq.  He believes that a coalition of Sunnis and Moqtada 
el-Sadr will defeat this draft on October 15, and send the 
political situation in Iraq back to zero. 
 
4.  (U) GOJ officials, in contrast, have been more upbeat in 
their public reaction to events in Iraq.  During a visit to 
Jeddah on September 4, the Jordanian state news agency 
(Petra) reported that Jordanian King Abdullah II and Saudi 
King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz jointly called for "all Iraqi 
people to participate in the political process," and 
confirmed their support for Iraq's security and stability. 
 
HALE