US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3644

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003644 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2015 
TAGS: PINS, PREL, MCAP, MOPS, PGOV, IZ, IR, Reconstruction, Parliament 
SUBJECT: REP WOLF DISCUSSES FUTURE OF COALITION FORCE 
PRESENCE WITH IRAQI OFFICIALS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (a), (b) and 
 (d) 
 
1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: On 28 August 2005, U.S. Representative 
Frank Wolf (R-VA) met with several members of the Iraqi 
Transitional Government (ITG), including President Jalal 
Talabani and Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jafari.  Noting 
wavering U.S. public opinion over the continued military 
presence in Iraq, Rep. Wolf queried the ITG members about the 
consequences of a fixed date for withdrawal in the very 
near-term.  Although their predictions varied, Iraqi 
officials were unanimous in their position that such a move 
would be severely detrimental to the development of a secure, 
stable, and democratic Iraq.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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WITHDRAWAL WOULD BE A 'DISASTER' - IRAN TO FILL THE GAP 
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2. (C/NF) At a luncheon with the several high-ranking Iraqi 
government officials and the U.S. Ambassador, Representative 
Wolf asked about a near-term U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. 
Deputy Prime Minister Rowsh Shaways responded that a 
premature U.S. withdrawal would be a "disaster" and a 
"victory for the forces of terrorism," urging that any 
withdrawal be linked to the readiness of the Iraqi security 
forces.  Judge Wael Abdul Latif stated that such a move would 
compromise the ability of the Iraqi state to govern, and that 
the country would fracture along ethnic lines.  Similarly, 
Speaker of the National Assembly Hajim Al-Hasani predicted 
that Iraq would become the biggest problem in the region, and 
that civil war would likely ensue. 
 
3. (C/NF)  President Jalal Talabani stated that Iran would 
step in to fill the vacuum in the wake of a U.S. pullout, and 
that Iran's public support for the Iraqi political process 
was largely rhetoric and not indicative of Iran's true 
intentions.  Iran fears, he said, that the example of a 
liberal pluralistic society in Iraq would undermine the 
foundations of their monolithic, autocratic system. The 
President continued that Lebanese Hizbollah is openly 
supporting other terrorist groups in Iraq.  Reinforcing this 
theme, Judge Latif implored the U.S. to "work behind the 
scenes" to combat the assassination operations and activities 
of militias that he claimed Iranian intelligence supports. 
President of the Kurdistan Regional Government Nechirvan 
Barzani stated that while Syria is the source of the majority 
of terrorists, Iran has more state-sponsored operatives 
within Iraq. 
 
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TALABANI'S CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS 
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4. (C/NF) As Representative Wolf pressed for the necessary 
steps forward, President Talabani identified three critical 
success factors.  First, Iraq must develop a true 
representative government that includes Sunnis.  Second, 
liberal democratic forces must be strengthened and developed 
in anticipation of the next election.  Third, the U.S. and 
Iraq must develop a truly joint strategy for combating the 
insurgency, as only in close cooperation can the 
proliferation of terrorists and insurgents be arrested. 
Underscoring President Talabani's point regarding the support 
for liberal forces, Deputy Chairman of the Constitutional 
Committee Dr. Adnan Al-Janabi emphasized that the U.S. must 
reinforce liberal impulses in Syria and elsewhere in the 
region, and not limit efforts to cultivate democracy to just 
Iraq. 
 
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JAFARI - IRAQ IS DEFENDING HUMANITY 
----------------------------------- 
 
5. (C/NF)  In a one-on-one meeting with ITG Prime Minister 
Ibrahim Al-Jafari, Representative Wolf once again posed the 
question of a fixed date for withdrawal.  Jafari voiced worry 
about the vacuum such a departure would leave, and insisted 
that any timetable for redeployment of U.S. forces should be 
based on conditions and not time.  Al-Jafari placed the 
responsibility for Iraq's current situation squarely on 
Syria, claiming that Damascus seeks a resurgence of the 
Baathist regime and that Saudi recruits to the Iraqi 
insurgency are actively training in Syria. However, he stated 
that there is no proof that Lebanese Hizbollah (and 
presumably other Iranian-backed terrorist groups) are present 
and active in Iraq. 
 
6. (C/NF) Al-Jafari mused at length that the Iraqi 
constitution is the product of a human journey toward 
democracy and plurality, and stressed the need to protect not 
only minorities but the ability for the majority -- i.e., 
Shia Muslims -- to live according to their beliefs. He 
suggested that terrorist forces in Iraq and elsewhere 
represent a unique moral turpitude, expounding in detail at 
the exceptional depravity of their actions. (NOTE: Jafari 
explicitly referred to 'Arab' terrorists.  END NOTE.)  The 
United States, he said, is standing against this worldwide 
phenomenon; and as such, Iraq's struggle is a struggle to 
defend humanity. 
 
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COMMENT - THE NEED TO DEMONSTRATE PROGRESS 
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7. (C) The focus of the Congressman's questions sent an 
important message to his senior Iraqi interlocutors: the USG 
is prepared to continue to help the Iraqis through the 
political transition to democracy, but the U.S. public 
expects to see greater evidence of political progress toward 
a situation enabling withdrawal of Coalition Forces.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
8. (U) Representative Wolf did not have the opportunity to 
clear this cable before departing post. 
Khalilzad