US embassy cable - 05BRATISLAVA705

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000705 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, LO 
SUBJECT: COALITION DROPS ANO, PM HOLDS ALL THE CARDS MOVING 
INTO ELECTION YEAR 
 
REF: A. BRATISLAVA 694 
     B. BRATISLAVA 682 
     C. BRATISLAVA 677 
     D. BRATISLAVA 663 
     E. BRATISLAVA 626 
     F. BRATISLAVA 618 
 
Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4(B) and (D). 
 
1.  (SBU)  The coalition parties announced September 1 that 
Pavol Rusko's ANO party (weakened by the departure of 7 of 
ANO's 11 MPs) is no longer a member of the coalition.  The 
coalition will work instead with the group of breakaway ANO 
MPs and cabinet ministers lead by Lubomir Lintner (Ref A). 
Prime Minister Dzurinda, who believes that the ruling 
coalition will be able to maintain stability with the support 
of Lintner's group, has decided not to honor Rusko's request 
to recall ANO cabinet Ministers Rudolf Zajac (Health) and 
Frantisek Toth (Culture).  Rusko and his remaining 3 MPs are 
widely expected to move over to the opposition, and the PM 
will likely allow Lintner's group to nominate someone to 
replace Rusko at the Ministry of Economy.  The latest rumors 
again indicate former ANO deputy chairman (and breakaway MP) 
Jirko Malcharek as a possible successor. 
 
MIKLOS TO AMBASSADOR: DZURINDA HOLDS ALL THE CARDS 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
2.  (C)  During the Ambassador's August 31 courtesy call with 
Minister of Finance (and, concurrently, acting Minister of 
the Economy) Ivan Miklos, Miklos said that the Prime Minister 
holds all the cards heading into the budget debate.  Whereas 
the PM was previously relying upon ANO's support to pass the 
2006 national budget, he now feels his position is win/win: 
either he is able to pass the budget with the help of 
Lintner's splinter group, or fails and pins the blame on 
Rusko.  In addition, Miklos pointed out that in the event the 
budget does not pass, the previous year's budget is simply 
rolled forward to the next year, meaning that even in the 
event he cannot pass a budget, the PM would be able to 
highlight a silver lining:  no net budget spending increase. 
 
KDH SATISFIED 
------------- 
 
3.  (C)  Two advisors to Chair of Parliament Pavol Hrusovsky 
told us September 2 that KDH was satisfied with the results 
of the initiative to have Rusko removed.  The coalition will 
now be able to hold on until the end of its term with the 
support of the ANO defectors and other independents.  KDH 
anticipates that there will be "some costs to pay" in the 
form of pork barrel projects to get the budget passed, but 
that the financial costs would not be prohibitively high. 
Hrusovsky's advisor on domestic policy predicted that 
opposition politicians including Rusko would try to take 
advantage of the situation by calling for votes of 
no-confidence in ministers, and arguing that the coalition 
politicians only want to hold on to power for as long as 
possible (therefore refusing to hold early elections).  She 
thought the government could successfully counter these 
arguments by "perfecting" or correcting some reforms and 
showing real benefits to the citizens. 
 
NOBODY PUTS RUSKO IN THE CORNER 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  COMMENT:  In spite of the rough and tumble events 
that have seen Rusko go from his powerful Ministerial 
position to likely opposition member over the course of two 
weeks, Rusko was spotted Wednesday night -- the day before 
the remainder of his party was booted from the coalition -- 
smiling and enjoying himself at his television station's gala 
"TOM awards," hosted by Patrick Swayze.  On the other hand, 
we noticed at the event that people were not running over to 
Rusko to demonstrate their solidarity with him. 
 
VALLEE 
 
 
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