US embassy cable - 05MANILA4137

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 004137 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, S/CT 
NSC FOR GREEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PINS, PTER, RP, NL, NO 
SUBJECT: COMMUNISTS COMMIT TO FORMAL TALKS BUT BREAKTHROUGH 
UNLIKELY 
 
REF: MANILA 3632 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Joseph Saus for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  After painting themselves in a corner, the 
National Democratic Front (NDF) -- the negotiating arm of the 
Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and its armed wing 
the New People's Army (NPA) -- has agreed to resume formal 
talks, though an exact date is yet to be determined.  The GRP 
reinstated its security guarantees that were set to lapse on 
September 3.  Norwegian facilitation efforts and shuttle 
diplomacy proved effective in bringing both sides together to 
commit to a resumption of formal talks.  These commitments, 
however, are a far cry from a lasting peace agreement as the 
sides will need to settle the contentious issues of a 
permanent ceasefire and (given the current domestic political 
climate) a difficult-to-implement social and economic reform 
agenda.  End Summary 
 
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Norwegians Greasing The Skids 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) On September 6, poloff met with Norwegian First 
Secretary Larissa Kosanovic to discuss the recent impasse in 
 
SIPDIS 
the GRP-NDF peace talks (reftel).  Kosanovic stressed Oslo's 
view that the NDF "really painted themselves in a corner" in 
pulling out of peace talks with the GRP by declaring they 
would only resume negotiations with a follow on regime after 
Arroyo was impeached.  Kosanovic agreed the NDF badly 
overplayed its hand.  Several ranking CPP/NPA/NDF officials 
were facing arrest resulting from the GRP's suspension of the 
NDF's security and immunity guarantees.  Norway, the third 
party facilitator, sent a delegation to Manila in mid-August 
to gauge GRP sentiments and then hosted informal 
consultations August 28-30 to bring together mid-level 
officials from each side. 
 
------------------------ 
Groping For Deliverables 
------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) Kosanovic said even with a return to negotiations, 
there are several (all too familiar) sticking points.  One 
issue is that the two sides have disparate ideas regarding a 
negotiated ceasefire.  Kosanovic stated the NDF is pulling 
for a phased or piece-meal ceasefire, while the GRP has 
stressed that it prefers a lasting, comprehensive, and 
nationwide ceasefire.  The wider socio-economic reforms that 
form the keystone of the NDF's demands remain difficult to 
discuss, let alone implement, according to Kosanovic. 
 
 
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All Parties Ready To Resume Formal Talks 
---------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) The Norwegian Foreign Ministry on September 2 and 
the GRP Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace 
Process (OPAPP) on September 5 issued separate positive 
statements noting that formal talks will resume at a yet 
undetermined date.  The GRP's statement specifically notes 
the withdrawal of its suspension of the security and immunity 
guarantees, which should have taken effect on September 3. 
The GRP statement also says the parties have agreed to a 
nationwide joint ceasefire during, and in connection with, 
the days when formal peace negotiations are held.  National 
Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales hinted to the media on 
August 30 that formal talks would resume soon. 
 
5.  (SBU) For its part, the NDF announced its receipt of the 
GRP's withdrawal of suspension.  On the CPP/NPA/NDF's website 
on September 3, the NDF's Chief International Representative, 
Utrecht-based Luis Jalandoni, stressed opposition to the 
USG's listing of the CPP/NPA as a Foreign Terrorist 
Organization, but added the NDF's willingness to further 
discuss the resumption of formal talks and other issues such 
as a "joint ceasefire of short duration."  (Note:  In its 
public statements, the NDF typically raises the FTO listing 
as an example of "foreign interference."  End Note.) 
 
------------------------------ 
Comment:  No Real Breakthrough 
------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) The talks seem to be back where they were several 
months ago, before President Arroyo's political troubles put 
her on the ropes in the Communists' eyes.  A return to the 
negotiating table is always a welcome development, but there 
are no indications of any breakthrough, given the daylight 
between the GRP and the NDF on key issues such as a permanent 
ceasefire and wider socio-economic reforms.  End Comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
JOHNSON