US embassy cable - 02COLOMBO1920

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001920 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL: 10-15-12 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, PHUM, MOPS, CE, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT: After surge in tension, situation in east seems 
to calm down as LTTE reiterates support for peace track 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1904, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
Summary 
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1.  (C) The situation in the east seems to have calmed 
down after violence last week left at least ten Tamils 
dead.  The cooling down process was given a critical 
boost via an announcement by Tiger leader Prabhakaran 
that he wanted the peace process to continue. 
Reinforcing the positive trend, Tiger spokesman Anton 
Balasingham is in Sri Lanka and on his way north to meet 
Prabhakaran.  In a constructive development reflecting 
an apparent easing of cohabitation stresses, the PM and 
the president held a rare meeting to discuss the peace 
process and other issues.  Despite the latest good news, 
the situation in the east remains volatile.  End 
Summary. 
 
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East seems calm for now 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The situation in the east seems to have calmed 
down after an upsurge in tension last week left at least 
ten people dead.  After seven Tamils were killed trying 
to overrun a police post in Ampara District on October 9 
(see Reftel), the latest violence took place near 
Trincomalee city on October 11.  In this flare-up, three 
Tamil demonstrators were killed in an apparent grenade 
explosion amid widespread protests by pro-Tiger elements 
in reaction to the Ampara shootings.  The GSL quickly 
clamped down on the situation, imposing a curfew in 
Trincomalee, which was lifted over the weekend.  Tamils 
also called general strikes in other parts of the north 
and the east in the past several days, but there were no 
additional reports of violence. 
 
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Tigers Reiterate support for Peace Track 
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3.  (C) The cooling down process in the east was given a 
key assist via an announcement by V. Prabhakaran, the 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) leader.  In an 
October 10 statement carried on the "Voice of the 
Tigers," the LTTE's clandestine radio station, 
Prabhakaran said "we want to have peace" and 
specifically added that he wanted the peace process to 
continue despite the carnage in the east.  Prabhakaran's 
statement was reiterated by Karuna, the LTTE military 
leader in the Batticaloa and Ampara sectors, during a 
meeting with Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) 
officials on October 12.  (Note:  The SLMM has launched 
an investigation into the killings in Ampara.) 
Observers agreed that Prabhakaran's and Karuna's 
comments were crucial in tamping down tensions in the 
east.  Taranjit Sandhu, polchief of the Indian High 
Commission, told us that the LTTE leaders' "had sent the 
right signals.  If they had sent the opposite signals, 
the east would probably still be in turmoil." 
 
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Balasingham Arrives 
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4.  (C) Reinforcing the latest positive trends, Tiger 
spokesman Anton Balasingham arrived in Sri Lanka on 
October 15.  Upon arrival at Colombo's international 
airport, Balasingham and his wife Adele were rushed into 
a waiting Sri Lanka Air Force helicopter for a flight to 
the Wanni region in northern Sri Lanka.  In this LTTE- 
controlled area, Balasingham is to meet with Prabhakaran 
and other senior Tiger leaders to review the peace 
process in the run-up to the second round of talks 
scheduled to begin later this month. 
 
5.  (C) Balasingham's visit at this time is important as 
there were concerns that last week's outbreak of 
violence might lead to a decision by the LTTE to 
postpone the trip indefinitely.  Indeed, when 
Balasingham did not arrive in Colombo as planned on 
October 10 these concerns skyrocketed.  The Norwegian 
Embassy reports that these concerns were misplaced and 
that now "all seems to be in order." (Note:  Balasingham 
visited Sri Lanka earlier this year in the March-April 
timeframe, but avoided travelling via Colombo.  His 
stopover at Colombo's airport is noteworthy, as it is 
his first visit to the Colombo region in almost a 
decade.) 
 
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PM-President Hold Rare Meeting 
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6.  (C) In a constructive development reflecting an 
apparent easing of cohabitation stresses, the PM and the 
president met on October 10.  The meeting was part of 
the two sides' recent decision to hold regular "joint" 
meetings on crucial issues.  During a briefing late 
October 10 involving the visiting PACOM defense 
assessment team, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe told the 
Ambassador that his meeting with President Kumaratunga 
had gone well, noting that it had gone on for about two 
hours of which about half was "substantive" in nature. 
The PM related that the two sides discussed defense 
reforms and the peace process, among other topics.  The 
two sides plan to meet again before the slated kickoff 
of the second round of peace talks on October 31. 
 
7.  (C) Commenting on the widely publicized meeting, 
Jehan Perera, the head of a local think-tank, told us 
that it was a sign that cohabitation tensions seem to 
have abated a bit.  Given the long-standing differences 
between the two sides, however, he did not believe the 
thaw was anything but temporary.  (Note:  Perera is 
probably right:  President Kumaratunga was quoted in the 
press as making acerbic-tinged comments about the GSL in 
public speeches over the weekend.) 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C) Despite the latest good news, the situation in 
the east remains volatile.  Many contacts believe that 
the LTTE is committed to saying the right things in 
public, but under the surface is just waiting for a 
chance to avenge the deaths of the ten Tamils.  There 
may be something to that.  Along with other observers, 
we have noticed an apparent increase in the LTTE's use 
of front organizations, including youth and other 
groups, to get its point across in rallies and marches. 
The LTTE's apparent plan appears to involve turning the 
heat up on the GSL, but avoid taking any blame for doing 
so.  That said, Balasingham's visit comes at an 
important juncture and seems to indicate that the 
Tigers' remain committed to talks with the government. 
End Comment. 
 
9.  (U) Minimize considered. 
WILLS