US embassy cable - 05QUITO2060

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002060 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, EC 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS GOVERNMENT MINISTER GANDARA 
 
Classified By: PolChief Erik Hall, for reason 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  The Ambassador paid a courtesy call on 
Minister of Government Mauricio Gandara on September 1. 
Gandara, a lightning rod for growing criticism of the Palacio 
government, made light of the chorus of calls for his 
impeachment.  In a cordial and wide-ranging discussion, 
Gandara blamed virtually all crime in Ecuador on Colombians, 
expounded on military theory, promoted his own views on 
political reform, and committed his ministry to fully apply 
the new law against trafficking in persons (TIP).  The 
Ambassador differed with Gandara's analysis of the Colombian 
conflict and offered collaboration against TIP.  Though 
rumors of his impending ouster are long-standing, we believe 
Gandara's days as minister might finally be drawing to a 
merciful end.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) The Ambassador's call on Gandara was her first on a 
minister since presenting her credentials on August 29.  (The 
Minister of Government position is first in protocol rank 
among Cabinet members here.)  She was accompanied by the DCM 
and PolChief.  Gandara was alone for most of the meeting, but 
called in Vice Minister Fernando Acosta when the discussion 
turned to TIP. 
 
Colombia the Root of Ecuador's Problems 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Gandara, among the Cabinet's most virulent 
nationalists, opened with a rant against Colombia. 
"Virtually all modern crimes committed here involve 
Colombians," he said.  Fully 55% of residents of Lago Agrio 
(site of the most violent demonstrations during the 
provincial strike in Sucumbios province) are of Colombian 
origin.  There was definitely Colombian involvement in oil 
country strikes, although he was vague about what form that 
involvement took.  A member of the prefect of Orellana's 
strike negotiating team was a Colombian missionary, he 
claimed. 
 
4.  (C) VM Acosta later offered a more reasoned analysis of 
recent provincial and local strike activity.  The strikes in 
Manabi, Orellana and Sucumbios reflect the divide between 
provinces with a culture of local tax-raising (Quito, 
Guayaquil, Cuenca, Loja, Manta) and those accustomed to 
depending only on central government handouts.  This pattern 
exists even within provinces.  Portoviejo, site of the first 
of the series of strikes, lies just 40 km from 
entrepreneurial (and strike-free) Manta. 
 
5.  (C) Burnishing his credentials as a military school grad, 
Gandara said the Colombian military should take fixed 
positions along the Ecuadorian border and push the FARC 
inward.  His corollary was that the Colombia conflict is not 
winnable militarily.  To do so would take an operational 
force advantage of 10-1, which the government does not have 
over the 40,000 guerrillas.  Efforts to stem the flow of 
drugs had not raised the price of cocaine on the street in 
the U.S.  The Ambassador expressed the USG view that the GOC 
is making steady progress recovering territory previously 
held by terrorist groups.  "Yes, at our expense," he 
exclaimed. 
 
Politics:  My Way 
----------------- 
 
6.  (C) Gandara made light of ongoing impeachment attempts in 
Congress against him.  "I check with my staff every morning 
how many new petitions came in over night."  (Note:  The 
Democratic Left (ID) party recently joined the fringe-leftist 
Popular Democracy Movement (MPD) in supporting a non-binding 
impeachment process in response to Gandara's handing of the 
recent strikes.  The Social Christian party (PSC) is publicly 
considering doing the same, but for different reasons.) 
 
7.  (C) Turning to pending political reforms, Gandara said he 
had been against Vice President Serrano's public consultation 
process "from the start."  The referendum should be moved 
forward to the end of September, to respond to peoples 
demands for change.  What is most urgently needed, he said, 
is an immediate return to bicameralism, to create a check on 
unconstitutional moves by a single house of Congress.  A 
reduction of Congress' time in session is also needed, to 
limit its capacity for damage.  He added a final reform he 
plans to suggest to the president:  a constitutional change 
to strip any striking government official of his/her official 
responsibilities.  If voted down by the people, he vowed to 
leave the government, joking that "the last one leaving turns 
out the lights." 
 
Committed to Fighting TIP 
------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) The Ambassador emphasized the importance of progress 
in the fight against TIP, with which Gandara agreed.  Now 
that we have a new law to enforce, he said, "we must apply it 
fully."  VM Acosta said the GOE was already applying the law 
in a landmark TIP case in Ambato; cited a recent Quito 
municipality initiative against child prostitution; lauded 
GOE internal coordination and help from the American Bar 
Association, including an impending airport poster campaign 
against sexual tourism; and said the First Lady's office will 
soon launch a nationwide anti-TIP public education campaign. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) The hyper-nationalist and sometimes prickly Gandara 
was clearly eager to impress and welcome the Ambassador. 
Boasting about his personal fitness, he even invited the 
Ambassador to join him on long walks up Pichincha volcano 
once she became accustomed to the altitude.  However, events 
may intervene to thwart this invitation.  Presidential 
sibling Gustavo Palacio told the DCM on September 1 that 
although he felt mounting criticism of Gandara was largely 
undeserved, he had recently recommended that his brother 
replace Gandara.  We agree with brother Palacio's view that 
Gandara has become a liability. 
JEWELL