US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2838

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002838 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  BIWEEKLY POLITICAL UPDATE 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
1.  (U) This biweekly update for political events in 
Nigeria includes items of interest from recent weeks. 
Topics covered in this edition include: 
 
 
-- Voter Registration 
-- Political Assassinations 
-- Electoral Bill Override 
-- Grand Summit of Politicians 
-- Miss World Postponed 
-- House Attempts Takeover of Enugu State Assembly 
 
 
VOTER REGISTRATION 
------------------ 
 
 
2.  (C)  Three weeks after the official close of the voters 
registration exercise, the Independent Nigerian Electoral 
Commission (INEC) has yet to address inadequacies in the 
widely-criticized process.  INEC has apparently missed its 
own September 26 deadline for posting the initial voter 
lists at each of more than 120,000 registration sites for 
examination and correction.  Political parties and the GON 
continue to criticize the exercise, but INEC has not 
revealed whether it plans to salvage its results or set a 
timetable for completing the process. 
 
 
POLITICAL ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT 
------------------------------- 
 
 
3.  (U)  In ongoing developments of political violence, 
Former Plateau State Minister of Sports Damishi Sango 
alleged that a plot to assassinate him had been uncovered 
in Plateau State.  He based his allegations on threatening 
phone calls which he received giving details of his 
movements and activities.  Damishi claims that the callers 
said they had been hired by his political opponents to 
assassinate him either at his residence or on the highway. 
The case has been handed over to the Plateau Inspector 
General of Police and to the State Security Service. 
 
 
4.  (C)  COMMENT:  Sango is the Alliance for Democracy (AD) 
candidate for governor in Plateau State, one of the states 
in which the AD, traditionally limited to predominately 
southwest Yoruba areas of the country, is looking to expand 
its influence.  End Comment. 
 
 
5.  (U)  Several other politicians, including Abia Governor 
Orji Kalu, Igbo leader Nduku Irabor, and Oyo Governor Lam 
Adesina, also claim to be the targets of similar threats. 
Irabor says that his motorcade was attacked during the 
celebration of Igbo Day, September 29, and Adesina claims 
that one of his security men was paid to assassinate him. 
 
 
ELECTORAL BILL OVERRIDE 
----------------------- 
 
 
6.  (U)  The House of Representatives overrode President 
Olusegun Obasanjo's veto of the 2002 Electoral Bill on 
September 25 by a vote of 191-13.  According to media 
reports, Representatives not voting in favor of the 
override were advised to stay out of the Assembly. 
Nigeria's Constitution provides that a quorum of the 
Assembly is required to convene a session and a two-thirds 
vote is necessary to override a veto.  The House of 
Representatives interpreted this as two-thirds of the 
quorum in attendance.  At the same session, Anambra 
Representative Celestine Ughanze, pointing to INEC's 
shortcomings in the registration of voters and its Chairman 
Dr. Abel Guobadia's comment that holding all elections on 
one day was impossible, said that Guobadia was not fit to 
continue as INEC's leader and called for his resignation. 
 
 
7.  (U)  On September 27, the Senate joined the Lower House 
in overriding the President's veto of the 2002 Electoral 
Bill.  The Senate voted 48-3 to override the veto while 
four Senators abstained. A counter-motion to stall the vote 
was defeated. Those against the override measure claimed 
the move was both unnecessary and illegal. 
 
 
8.  (C)  COMMENT:  Observers question the legality of both 
votes and provisions of the bill have not yet been 
implemented.  Sequencing of the elections is a hotly 
contested political issue.  That could determine electoral 
outcomes.  The Presidency prefers Presidential elections 
first, with others to follow, hoping for a coattail effect 
for the PDP.  The National Assembly advocates elections on 
the same day, hoping to limit Presidential influence.  End 
Comment. 
 
 
GRAND SUMMIT OF POLITICIANS 
--------------------------- 
 
 
9.  (U)  The October 9 issue of "The Guardian" newspaper 
announced that 106 prominent politicians were convening a 
"Grand Summit" to be held on October 29.  (COMMENT:  The 
list appears to be mostly politicians outside of Obasanjo's 
shrinking camp of supporters.  End Comment.)  The purpose 
of the meeting was to find ways to "save Nigeria's young 
democracy."  According to the report, Lagos' Governor Bola 
Tinubu is to convene the summit.  At an October 10 meeting, 
Folurunsho Folarin-Coker, Personal Assistant to the 
Governor, told Lagos CG and P/E Officers that he knew 
nothing about the summit.  Folarin-Coker said that the 
announcement appeared to be an effort to get President 
Olusegun Obasanjo to call a sovereign national conference. 
For years, Yoruba politicians, supported by some non- 
Yorubas, have been calling for a conference to settle 
crucial questions regarding amendment of the 1999 
Constitution, allocation of income/revenues from oil and 
gas production, etc.  Folarin-Coker said that, if a summit 
takes place, it will be important to invite the diplomatic 
community to attend and observe in order to guarantee the 
credibility of any outcome. 
 
 
10.  (C)  COMMENT:  While it is unclear whether this 
meeting will hold as announced, October 29 is also the 
tentative date bruited for the AD's National Party 
Convention.  Some activity is underway to prepare for an AD 
convention, but many politicians think that the key to a 
successful electoral strategy lies in not being the first 
to hold a convention.  End Comment. 
 
 
MISS WORLD POSTPONED 
-------------------- 
 
 
11.  (U)  Organizers of the Miss World beauty pageant 
announced on October 4 that they had postponed the event 
for one week.  The controversy surrounding the staging of 
the pageant in Nigeria continues with commentary from 
Nigeria's conservative northern region complaining that 
hosting the pageant is not in keeping with Islamic 
traditions and several contestants refusing to participate 
due to the sentencing to death by stoning of Amina Lawal, 
an unwed mother.  According to the organizers, the change 
was necessary to avoid holding the event during the month 
of Ramadan.  The pageant is now scheduled to take place 
December 7. 
 
 
HOUSE ATTEMPTS TAKEOVER OF ENUGU STATE ASSEMBLY 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
12.  (U)  On October 3, the House of Representatives 
adopted a motion, sponsored by Enugu Representative Anayo 
Ede, to give the National Assembly the power to legislate 
for Enugu State, where two different groups of state 
legislators, one supporting Senator (and ex-Governor) Jim 
Nwobodo and the other supporting current Governor Chimaroke 
Nnamani, are at loggerheads over who represents the state. 
In September, members of one of the factions dismissed the 
Assembly Speaker, seized his mace -- the symbol of 
parliamentary authority -- and moved to Abuja.  They 
attempted to hold a parliamentary session in the capital, 
but were halted by police. 
 
 
13.  (U) On October 8, Nwobodo sponsored a motion in the 
Senate rejecting the move by the House.  According to the 
press, this motion was adopted unanimously by the Senate. 
In addition to Nwobodo's self-interest, the move to take 
power from the state legislature, while permitted by the 
Constitution in certain circumstances, raised questions 
among the legislators about what constituted a crisis and 
whether the differences between the two factions could be 
ironed out in a different manner. 
JETER