US embassy cable - 02HANOI2493

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 002493 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EAP/J 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  02493  01 OF 02  150723Z 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, ETRD, EAID, ECON, JA, VM 
SUBJECT: NONG DUC MANH VISITS JAPAN: ACCORDING TO SCRIPT 
 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY.  NONG DUC MANH, GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE 
COMMUNIST PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV), VISITED JAPAN OCTOBER 2-5. 
BOTH SIDES PREDICTABLY LABELED THE CAREFULLY SCRIPTED VISIT 
AS A "SUCCESS."  IN ADDITION TO "REAFFIRMING THE STRONG 
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP," TOPICS INCLUDED THE NEED FOR 
VIETNAM TO MAKE JAPAN'S OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE 
(ODA) "MORE EFFICIENT," BEEFING UP NEGOTIATIONS FOR A 
"SPEEDY CONCLUSION" OF A BILATERAL AGREEMENT ON INVESTMENT 
PROTECTION AND PROMOTION, AND POSSIBLE RELIEF OF IMPORT 
RESTRICTIONS OF JAPANESE MOTORBIKE KITS.  JAPAN PUSHED FOR 
VIETNAM'S EARLY RATIFICATION OF THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR 
TEST BAN TREATY.  BOTH SIDES REITERATED A COMMITMENT TO 
ERADICATE TERRORISM.  MANH INVITED THE EMPEROR TO VISIT 
VIETNAM, BUT SUCH A VISIT IS UNLIKELY.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  THIS WAS MANH'S FIRST VISIT TO JAPAN SINCE BECOMING 
GENERAL SECRETARY IN APRIL 2001, ALTHOUGH HE HAD PREVIOUSLY 
VISITED JAPAN IN 1995 AS THEN-NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN. 
THEN-CPV GENERAL SECRETARY DO MUOI AND THEN-PRIME MINISTER 
VO VAN KIET VISITED IN 1995 AND 1993, RESPECTIVELY. 
OFFICIALS ACCOMPANYING MANH INCLUDED DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER 
VU KHOAN, FOREIGN MINISTER NGUYEN DY NIEN, SEVERAL HIGH 
RANKING CPV OFFICIALS, MINISTER OF PLANNING AND INVESTMENT 
VO HONG PHUC, AND MINISTER OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NGUYEN 
MINH HIEN. 
 
3.  (SBU)  MANH SPENT MOST OF HIS TIME IN TOKYO, BUT ALSO 
VISITED OSAKA, WHICH HAS CLOSE TIES TO HO CHI MINH CITY.  HE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  02493  01 OF 02  150723Z 
RETURNED TO VIETNAM DIRECTLY FROM OSAKA.  ACCORDING TO 
NGUYEN VINH QUANG, VICE DIRECTOR OF THE CPV CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE COMMISSION FOR EXTERNAL AFFAIRS' DEPARTMENT FOR 
CHINA AND NORTHEAST ASIA, MANH HAD AN AUDIENCE WITH JAPANESE 
EMPEROR AKIHITO, AND MET WITH PRIME MINISTER KOIZUMI AND 
NUMEROUS HIGH-RANKING OFFICIALS FROM JAPANESE POLITICAL 
PARTIES AND THE LEGISLATURE.  IN ADDITION, MANH HAD MEETINGS 
WITH THE JAPAN UNION OF ECONOMIC ORGANIZATIONS AND THE JAPAN- 
VIETNAM FRIENDSHIP ASSOCIATION, AND PAID A VISIT TO A 
UNIVERSITY.  QUANG SAID THAT MANH DID NOT COME INTO CONTACT 
WITH STUDENTS DURING THE UNIVERSITY VISIT.  JAPANESE EMBOFFS 
NOTED SEPARATELY THAT MANH MADE PRO FORMA CALLS ON THE HEADS 
OF BOTH HOUSES OF PARLIAMENT AS WELL AS THE LEADER OF THE 
JAPANESE COMMUNIST PARTY. 
 
----------------------- 
ODA:  DO MORE WITH LESS 
----------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU)  DURING HIS MEETING WITH KOIZUMI, MANH REITERATED 
THE NEED FOR JAPAN TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT LEVEL OF ODA. 
JAPAN IS VIETNAM'S LARGEST ODA DONOR; FOR THE CURRENT FISCAL 
YEAR, IT HAS PLEDGED NEARLY USD 739 MILLION, ACCORDING TO 
PRESS REPORTS.  (NOTE:  WHILE JAPAN IS CUTTING ITS ODA BY 
ABOUT 10 PCT WORLDWIDE THIS YEAR, VIETNAM LEVELS REMAINED 
STEADY, WHICH MADE JAPAN THE COUNTRY OF THE HOUR AT LAST 
YEAR'S CONSULTATIVE GROUP OF DONORS MEETING IN HANOI.  END 
NOTE)  JAPAN REPRESENTS ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF VIETNAM'S TOTAL 
ODA, ALTHOUGH A WHOPPING 85 PCT OF THAT IS TIED AID. 
JAPANESE EMBOFFS SAID THAT, WHILE KOIZUMI AND MANH DID NOT 
DISCUSS SPECIFIC NUMBERS, THE VIETNAMESE SIDE RECOGNIZED 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  02493  01 OF 02  150723Z 
THAT THE GVN WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DO MORE WITH LESS. DURING 
DISCUSSIONS AND IN THE FINAL COMMUNIQU, BOTH SIDES 
SPECIFICALLY AGREED FOR THE NEED FOR VIETNAM TO USE JAPAN'S 
ODA MORE "EFFECTIVELY AND EFFICIENTLY, GIVEN THE CURRENT 
BUDGETARY SITUATION." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
INVESTMENT PROTECTION AND PROMOTION:  LET'S GET IT DONE 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
5.  (U)  THE CPV'S QUANG SAID THAT BOTH SIDES ARE "ANXIOUS" 
TO COMPLETE WORK ON THIS AGREEMENT, WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN 
NEGOTIATING SINCE 1999.  HE PREDICTED THAT "CHANCES ARE 
GOOD" IT WILL BE COMPLETED BY THE END OF THIS YEAR.  QUANG 
ADMITTED THAT JAPANESE BUSINESSES WANT TO SEE MORE OPEN 
MARKETS IN VIETNAM, AND ADDED THAT THE AGREEMENT IS 
IMPORTANT TO DEMONSTRATE VIETNAM'S COMMITMENT TO ATTRACTING 
MORE FOREIGN INVESTMENT NOT ONLY FROM JAPAN BUT ALSO OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCES.  ACCORDING TO QUANG, MANH AGREED WITH HIS 
HOSTS ON THE NEED TO ACCELERATE NEGOTIATIONS AND COMPLETE 
THE AGREEMENT.  (COMMENT:  TALKS ON THIS AGREEMENT HAD BEEN 
LANGUISHING UNTIL THE US-VIETNAM BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT 
WENT INTO EFFECT IN DECEMBER 2001.  SINCE THEN, JAPAN HAS 
APPARENTLY FELT A RENEWED URGENCY, WHILE VIETNAM HAD FEWER 
EXCUSES FOR DELAYING THE TALKS.  EMBASSY UNDERSTANDS THAT 
JAPAN IS PUSHING FOR A BTA-PLUS AGREEMENT, WHILE VIETNAM IS 
HOLDING OUT FOR BTA-MINUS.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPECULATION 
THAT THE RECENT MOTORBIKE DISPUTE MAY HAVE BEEN LINKED TO 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ0941 
 
PAGE 01        HANOI  02493  02 OF 02  150724Z 
ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   A-00     CA-01    CCO-00   CEA-01 
      CG-00    CIAE-00  COME-00  CTME-00  DOEE-00  ITCE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EXME-00  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      UTED-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   INSE-00 
      ITC-01   L-00     VCE-00   M-00     AC-01    DCP-01   NRCE-00 
      NSAE-00  OCS-03   OES-01   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PER-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    SSO-00 
      STR-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00  USSS-00  ASDS-01  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /015W 
                  ------------------F72AE4  150724Z /38 
R 150716Z OCT 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7787 
INFO AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI 
NSC WASHDC 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ACHAO// 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 002493 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EAP/J 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  02493  02 OF 02  150724Z 
SUBJ: NONG DUC MANH VISITS JAPAN: ACCORDING TO SCRIPT 
 
PUTTING PRESSURE ON JAPAN DURING THE NEGOTIATIONS.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
-------------------------- 
MOTORBIKES:  WE'RE HURTING 
-------------------------- 
 
6.  (U)  JUST PRIOR TO MANH'S VISIT, THE GVN ANNOUNCED THAT 
IT WAS DRASTICALLY CUTTING THE AGREED QUOTA FOR THE IMPORT 
OF "KNOCKDOWN KITS" FOR JAPANESE MOTORCYCLE MAKERS.  HONDA 
WAS PARTICULARLY HARD HIT.  AUTHORITIES IN VINH PHUC 
PROVINCE, WHERE THE FACTORY IS LOCATED, HAD AUTHORIZED AN 
ANNUAL IMPORT QUOTA OF 587,000 KITS, BUT CENTRAL AUTHORITIES 
CUT THAT TO 280,000 KITS.  SINCE HONDA HAD ALREADY EXCEEDED 
THAT NUMBER, IT WILL BE FORCED TO CEASE PRODUCTION FOR THE 
REST OF THE YEAR.  QUOTAS FOR YAMAHA AND SUZUKI WERE ALSO 
CUT, AND PRODUCTION AT THOSE FACILITIES HAS SLOWED. 
 
7.  (U)  ON THE MARGINS OF MANH'S TALKS WITH THE GOJ, SENIOR 
EXECUTIVES FROM HONDA, SUZUKI, AND YAMAHA MET SEPARATELY 
WITH DPM (AND FORMER TRADE MINISTER) VU KHOAN CONCERNING 
THESE RECENT VIETNAMESE LIMITATIONS.  THIS IS AN IMPORTANT 
BILATERAL ISSUE TO THE GOJ, ACCORDING TO JAPANESE EMBOFFS. 
JAPANESE INTERLOCUTORS TOLD KHOAN THAT THE RESTRICTION WAS 
PROTECTIONIST AND HAD A MAJOR IMPACT ON THEIR PRODUCTION 
PLANS.  ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, KHOAN ASSURED THE 
BUSINESS REPRESENTATIVES THAT HE PERSONALLY WOULD WORK ON 
THIS ISSUE, BUT CLAIMED THAT A MAJOR REASON BEHIND THE 
RESTRICTIONS WAS TO CURB VIETNAM'S SOARING MOTORBIKE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  02493  02 OF 02  150724Z 
ACCIDENT RATE.  (COMMENT:  EMBASSY SERIOUSLY DOUBTS THIS 
CLAIM.  END COMMENT)  OTHER GVN OFFICIALS ARE CLAIMING THAT 
THE QUOTAS WERE "FROZEN" BECAUSE JAPANESE MAKERS ARE NOT 
FULFILLING THE REQUIREMENTS FOR "LOCAL CONTENT" AS 
STIPULATED IN THEIR INVESTMENT LICENSES.  (COMMENT:  MORE 
LIKELY.  END COMMENT) 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
CTBT AND TERRORISM: AGREEING, BUT NOT COMPLETELY 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
8.  (SBU)  JAPAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER YORIKO KAWAGUCHI MET 
WITH FM NIEN AND REQUESTED THAT VIETNAM QUICKLY RATIFY THE 
CTBT.  ACCORDING TO QUANG AND PRESS REPORTS, NIEN TOLD 
KAWAGUCHI THAT VIETNAM AGREES WITH JAPAN ON THE NEED FOR 
RATIFICATION.  THE CPV'S QUANG TOLD POLOFF THAT THE CTBT IS 
NOW "BEING REVIEWED" IN THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
(MFA) AND HAS NOT YET BEEN SUBMITTED TO THE NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY, HOWEVER.  QUANG WAS UNABLE TO OFFER A PREDICTION 
AS TO WHEN THE MFA WOULD FINISH ITS REVIEW.  ACCORDING TO 
JAPANESE EMBOFFS, THE VIETNAMESE SIDE REJECTED JAPANESE 
PROPOSED COMMUNIQU LANGUAGE THAT CTBT RATIFICATION WAS OF 
"UTMOST" IMPORTANCE. 
 
9.  (SBU)  CONCERNING TERRORISM, QUANG SAID MANH DISCUSSED 
THE ISSUE "BRIEFLY AND GENERALLY" WITH KOIZUMI BUT DID NOT 
GO INTO DETAILS.  THERE WAS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE NEED TO 
CONTINUE EFFORTS TO ERADICATE TERRORISM, BUT NO PLANS FOR 
ANY NEW FORMS OF BILATERAL COOPERATION.  ACCORDING TO 
JAPANESE EMBOFFS, REFERENCES IN THE JOINT COMMUNIQU TO 
EARLIER APEC AND ASEM DECLARATIONS ON TERRORISM WERE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  02493  02 OF 02  150724Z 
INSERTED AT VIETNAM'S REQUEST. 
 
------------------- 
ROYAL VISIT UNLIKEY 
------------------- 
 
10.  (SBU)  MANH REITERATED AN INVITATION FOR THE EMPEROR 
AND EMPRESS TO VISIT VIETNAM.  PRIME MINISTER KHAI HAD ALSO 
ISSUED THIS INVITATION WHEN KOIZUMI VISITED VIETNAM LAST 
APRIL.  SOURCES HERE PREDICT THAT SUCH A VISIT IS UNLIKELY, 
HOWEVER. 
 
----------------- 
KEEPING A BALANCE 
----------------- 
 
11.  (SBU)  DURING MANH'S VISIT, THE CPV ANNOUNCED PLANS FOR 
HIM TO VISIT RUSSIA "IN THE COMING DAYS," WITHOUT PROVIDING 
ACTUAL DATES.  JAPANESE EMBOFFS NOTED THAT THE TIMING OF 
THIS ANNOUNCEMENT WAS UNLIKELY TO BE COINCIDENTAL, AND WAS 
PROBABLY INTENDED BY VIETNAM AS SHOWING NO FAVORITISM IN ITS 
RELATIONS WITH THESE TWO IMPORTANT PARTNERS. 
BURGHARDT 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED