US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI3593

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT: KENYA CONSTITUTION: BATTLE LINES DRAWN ON THE 
 
REFERENDUM 
 
REF: (A) NAIROBI 3499 (B) NAIROBI 3487 
 
Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor L. Peterson for reasons 1.4 ( 
b,d) 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
1. (SBU)  Battle lines are being drawn on the upcoming 
referendum on the proposed new constitution.  Former 
President Moi has announced his opposition to the new draft. 
Two Cabinet members, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka, have 
formally joined forces with the leader of the Official 
Opposition Uhuru Kenyatta to conduct a nationwide campaign 
for a vote against the draft.  Three major religious bodies 
have stated their neutrality on the draft, but some among 
these have expressed reservations about portions of the 
document and have advised that they will engage in civic 
education on strengths and weaknesses of the draft.  The "No" 
campaign, with its vocal and early start, appears to have an 
early advantage, but much can still change between now and 
referendum day.  END SUMMARY. 
 
OVERT OPPOSITION 
--------------- 
2. (U)  During the week of August 29, a number of high 
profile individuals and organizations announced their 
positions on the new draft constitution.  Former President 
Moi stated he opposes the draft, claiming it promotes 
tribalism, suspicion, and animosity, and forecasting that the 
document "would tear this country apart" if adopted.  The 
Central Organization of Trade Unions (COTU) has also 
announced it will advise its members to vote against the 
draft, stating that it negated principles of democracy and 
freedom and would erode current gains by the trade union 
movement.  Women,s groups have also expressed concern over 
the draft.  The Kenya Women,s Movement, comprising several 
women,s organizations, recently announced that the draft 
failed to sufficiently advance women,s rights. 
 
3. (C) Cabinet Ministers Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka 
(both of the Liberal Democratic Party) formally joined forces 
with Kenya African National Union (KANU) leader Uhuru 
Kenyatta August 31 to launch a nationwide campaign opposing 
the new draft.  The three leaders plan to conduct rallies in 
18 towns countrywide.  (COMMENT: The combination of these 
three personalities is likely to provide real momentum to the 
"No" campaign.  Kenyatta will be able to draw in at least a 
portion of the Kikuyu community, along with support from 
KANU's significant support base in the Rift Valley.  Musyoka 
has repeatedly appeared in opinion polls as a strong 
contender for the presidency and will be able to draw in at 
least a portion of the Kamba community.  Odinga is an 
exceptional organizer within the Luo community and among his 
Nairobi-area constituents; his strategy and leadership helped 
seal the ruling coalition's victory in 2002.  They are coming 
to this battle, however, with a comparatively small war chest 
of about $135,000 and risk being quickly outspent by the 
"Yes" camp.  END COMMENT.) 
 
OFFICIAL NEUTRALITY - WITH SOME RESERVATIONS 
-------------------------------------------- 
4. (SBU) On three successive days, the Catholic Church, 
Anglican Church, and National Council of Churches of Kenya 
(NCCK) (representing mainstream Protestant churches), 
publicly declined to side one way or the other on the draft, 
in contrast to the public opposition voiced by 41 Protestant 
and Evangelical churches on August 25 (ref B).  Rather, these 
religious bodies declared that it was up to each individual 
to make up his or her own mind on the draft.  The Catholics 
leaned slightly toward the new draft, describing it as better 
than either the current constitution or the Bomas draft.  The 
Anglicans advised they would be involved in civic education 
activities in the run-up to the referendum to explain the 
strengths and weaknesses of the new draft.  The NCCK also 
described the new draft as better than both the existing 
constitution and the Bomas draft, but publicly expressed a 
specific concern about the draft's rigid amendment 
procedures.  Each of these groups announced their neutral 
stances following meetings with the man responsible for 
formulating the new draft, Attorney General Amos Wako, 
fueling speculation in local media that Wako influenced the 
religious bodies to avoid further damaging the Government,s 
"Yes" campaign. 
 
POSSIBLE DIVISIONS WITHIN THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY 
--------------------------------------------- - 
5. (U) The Supreme Council of Kenyan Muslims (SUPKEM) 
secretary general has asked Muslims to read and interpret the 
 
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draft carefully while awaiting direction from SUPKEM.  The 
secretary general of the Council of Imams and Preachers of 
 
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Kenya advised that the organization would announce a position 
after having studied and compared three different 
constitutional drafts.  In the meantime, the National Muslim 
Council of Kenya has reiterated its opposition to the draft. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
6. (SBU)  Whether voicing opposition to the new draft or 
simply declining to endorse it, religious leaders and civil 
society groups may disadvantage the Government,s "Yes" 
campaign.  If the only support outside of Government lent to 
the draft is to withhold judgment on it, the "Yes" campaign 
seems to be starting at a disadvantage.  While the "No" group 
has been quick to launch its campaign, the Government has 
been slow to mobilize supporters, and has put out confusing, 
conflicting messages about what, exactly, is in the draft. 
Members of Parliament who support the draft are to gather 
September 2 to strategize the "Yes" campaign, but they now 
appear rather slow coming out of the chute.  For the moment, 
the draft's opponents seem well-positioned to defeat the 
draft.  Many other developments, however, particularly the 
"Yes" camp's potential war chest, could easily shift the 
balance between now and November.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
BELLAMY