US embassy cable - 05PARIS5980

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005980 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ 
BUSH ADMINISTRATION AND HURRICANE KATRINA 
IRAN 
PARIS - FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 02, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. IRAQ 
2. BUSH ADMINISTRATION AND HURRICANE KATRINA 
3. IRAN 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
MOST FRONT PAGES ARE DEVOTED TO FM DE VILLEPIN'S MEASURES TO 
BOOST FRANCE'S ECONOMY THROUGH EMPLOYMENT AND TAX CUTS AS 
REVEALED YESTERDAY DURING A PRESS CONFERENCE AND LATER ON TF1 
TELEVISION. DURING HIS TELEVISED INTERVIEW, DE VILLEPIN 
MENTIONED HAVING MET WITH AMBASSADOR STAPLETON TO OFFER 
FRANCE'S ASSISTANCE FOR HURRICANE KATRINA VICTIMS. THE CHAOTIC 
SITUATION IN NEW ORLEANS AND OTHER REGIONS HIT BY KATRINA ARE 
WIDELY COVERED, WITH TALK OF ANARCHY AND DESOLATION. MOST 
COMMENTATORS NOTE THAT THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION IS OVERWHELMED 
BY THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DESTRUCTION AND SEE THE CHALLENGE AS A 
MAKE OR BREAK SITUATION FOR PRESIDENT BUSH. "THE HOUR OF TRUTH 
FOR BUSH" TITLES LE FIGAO; "A NATURAL DISASTER WITH POLITICAL 
IMPLICATIONS" WRITES LIBERATION EDITORIALIST GERARD DUPUY; 
"WEAKENED BY IRAQ, BUSH COULD BOUNCE BACK" NOTES LE MONDE. 
(SEE PART C) 
 
IRAQ'S CONSTITUTION AND MORE GENERALLY THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE 
U.S. INTERVENTION IN IRAQ ARE DEPICTED IN LE FIGARO AS LEADING 
TO A "TOTAL IMPASSE" IN TWO SEPARATE OP-EDS. BUT IN HIS WEEKLY 
WRAP-UP IVAN RIOUFOL PRAISES SHARON AND BUSH FOR THEIR 
PATRIOTISM: "THEY ARE AT THE HEAD OF TWO PROUD NATIONS WHO 
HAVE DECIDED TO RESIST RADICAL ISLAM." (SEE PART C) 
 
LE MONDE CARRIES AN OPINION PIECE BY FRANCOIS HEISBOURG OF THE 
FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC RESEARCH IN WHICH HE PROCLAIMS THAT 
"THE KEY TO THE IRANIAN CRISIS LIES WITH CHINA." (SEE PART C) 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAQ 
 
"TOTAL IMPASSE AND PREDICTABLE DECOMPOSITION" 
ANTOINE BASBOUS, DIRECTOR OF THE OBSERVATORY OF ARAB COUNTRIES 
IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (09/02): "IN SPITE OF THE 
CONSTITUTION, THE FUTURE FOR IRAQ IS LOOKING VERY SOMBER. THE 
COUNTRY MAY WELL BECOME A PLATFORM FOR THE EXPORTATION OF 
CHAOS TO THE REGION, SERVE AS SANCTUARY FOR AL-QAEDA AND AS A 
REAR BASE FOR ITS OPERATIONS. WASHINGTON MADE MANY ERRORS 
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FALL OF BAGHDAD. TODAY, PRESIDENT BUSH 
HAS INSCRIBED HIS IRAQI POLICY IN A DYNAMIC OF PROGRESSIVE 
DISENGAGEMENT TO AVOID THE DISHONOR OF RETREAT. THE BREAK UP 
OF IRAQ IS PREDICTABLE AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS. THE NEW 
SHIITE AND KURD POWERS IN IRAQ WILL GIVE IDEAS TO MINORITIES 
IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. THE AMERICAN INVASION OF IRAQ HAS 
LED TO THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF ITS INITIAL OBJECTIVES. IN IRAQ, 
ISLAMISM IS GAINING, WITH THE TWO COMMUNITIES, SUNNI AND 
SHIITE, PREPARING FOR A HEAD-ON COLLISION. ONE NOTICEABLE 
IMPACT OF THE INTERVENTION IS THAT THE `ARAB ORDER' OF CERTAIN 
NATIONS WAS ALTERED, LEADING TO SOME POSITIVE RESULTS: LIBYA'S 
ABANDONING ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND SYRIA'S DEPARTURE FROM 
LEBANON. ON THE OTHER HAND, AMERICA'S MIRED SITUATION IN IRAQ 
HAS ALLOWED IRAN TO DEFY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WITHOUT 
FEAR OF THE U.S. THREATENING TO USE `STICK' DIPLOMACY." 
 
"A WORRISOME ISLAMIZATION?" 
JOSEPH YACOUB IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (09/02): 
"ISLAMIZATION OF IRAQ WOULD BE A TRAGEDY FOR ITS PEOPLE AND A 
NEW FAILURE FOR THE U.S. WHICH SOUGHT TO BRING DEMOCRACY TO 
IRAQ AND DEMOCRATIZE THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST. THIS IS A BITTER 
DISAPPOINTMENT, WHICH UNDERMINES AMERICAN ARGUMENTS TO JUSTIFY 
THE WAR AGAINST TYRANNY. IN ESSENCE, A WAR FOR NAUGHT?" 
 
"SHARON AND BUSH, OUTCASTS?" 
IVAN RIOUFOL IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (09/02): "WHY IS 
ANYONE WHO SUPPORTS SHARON AND BUSH ACCUSED OF BEING A 
`FASCIST?' WHY IS THE FRENCH MEDIA SO SET AGAINST THEM? THE 
GAZA DISENGAGEMENT HAS NOT BEEN PROPERLY SALUTED, WHILE THE 
WORSE CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED FOR IRAQ. WHY THIS REJECTION? 
THESE MEN ARE PATRIOTS AT THE HEAD OF PROUD COUNTRIES WHO HAVE 
DECIDED TO FIGHT AGAINST RADICAL ISLAM. BUSH AND SHARON ARE 
OUTCAST BECAUSE THEY DO NOT BELIEVE IN THE ANGELIC VISION OF A 
PERFECT INTERNATIONAL MELTING POT." 
 
BUSH ADMINISTRATION AND HURRICANE KATRINA 
 
"CRACKS" 
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (09/02): "WHAT 
KATRINA IS REVEALING ABOUT THE U.S. IS HARDLY ENCOURAGING. 
PROPER WARNINGS WERE GIVEN ABOUT THE HURRICANE. THE TRAGEDY 
CAME NOT FROM THE SKIES BUT FROM THE GROUND. HUMAN FAILURE IS 
BEHIND THE BREAKING OF THE LEVEES. KATRINA IS A NATURAL 
DISASTER WITH POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS. THE IMAGES OF LOOTING 
AND ANARCHY IN A COUNTRY THAT PRAISES ITSELF FOR BEING A 
CHAMPION OF SECURITY IS INDEED A CRUEL SPECTACLE. MORE THAN 
MONEY WILL BE NEEDED TO ERASE THE CRACKS THAT ARE SHOWING ON 
THE FACE OF AMERICA." 
 
"THE HOUR OF TRUTH FOR BUSH" 
JEAN-LOUIS TURLIN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (09/02): 
"PRESIDENT BUSH IS PERFECTLY AWARE OF THE STAKES HE IS FACING. 
WITH SIX OUT OF TEN AMERICANS DISAPPROVING HIS IRAQ POLICY, HE 
KNOWS THAT HOW HE MANAGES THE POST-KATRINA CRISIS WILL 
DETERMINE WHETHER HE CAN GAIN BACK SOME OF HIS LOST `POLITICAL 
CAPITAL' OR WHETHER HE WILL LOSE THE LITTLE HE HAS LEFT. THE 
30 BILLION DOLLARS IN AID ANNOUNCED TO FINANCE THE AFTERMATH 
OF THE HURRICANE ARE THE BEST ASSET THE PRESIDENT HAS TO 
COUNTER THOSE WHO SEE IRAQ AS A FINANCIAL BOTTOMLESS PIT." 
 
IRAN 
 
"THE KEY TO IRAN CRISIS IS IN BEIJING" 
FRANCOIS HEISBOURG OF THE FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC RESEARCH IN 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE (09/02): "WHAT IS ONE TO THINK ABOUT 
THE POTENTIAL USE OF FORCE AGAINST IRAN? THERE ARE SEVERAL 
OBSTACLES TO SUCH AN OPTION. FIRST THE TECHNICAL AND 
OPERATIONAL DIFFICULTIES OF EFFECTIVE STRIKES ARE GREAT 
BECAUSE IT CANNOT BE LIMITED TO A FEW STRIKES. SECOND, THE 
OPERATION WOULD TRIGGER A DEADLY AGGRAVATION OF TENSION 
BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE MUSLIM WORLD. THE EMERGENCE OF CHINA 
AS A MAJOR WORLD POWER AND ITS HANDLING OF THE NORTH KOREAN 
CRISIS, INDICATES IT HAS A ROLE TO PLAY. CHINA CAN DECIDE TO 
DEFEND ITS IMMEDIATE ENERGY NEEDS BY BLOCKING ANY UN 
RESOLUTION AGAINST IRAN. AND OBTAINING ACCESS TO IRAN'S OIL 
RESERVES. THE EUROPEANS LIKE THE AMERICANS HAVE EVERYTHING TO 
GAIN IN ENCOURAGING BEIJING TO ACT CONSTRUCTIVELY. THIS IS A 
CONDITION TO A SUCCESSFUL NEGOTIATION BETWEEN THE EU 3 AND 
IRAN. BUT AT WHAT COST? BEIJING WOULD WANT PAY BACK IN THE 
FORM OF THE UNSC SUPPORT AGAINST TAIWAN. THE IRANIAN CRISIS 
CAN SERVE TO TEST WHAT CHINA CALLS ITS `PEACEFUL EMERGENCE.' A 
BIPOLAR CHINESE-AMERICAN WORLD IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. 
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT FOR WASHINGTON AS WELL AS FOR BEIJING, 
RELATIONS WITH EUROPE WILL BE DEFINED BY OUR ATTITUDE TO WHAT 
MAKES CHINESE-AMERICAN RELATIONS: WE ALREADY HAD A TASTE WITH 
THE QUESTION OF THE LIFTING OF THE EUROPEAN EMBARGO ON ARMS 
SALES TO CHINA. THE IRANIAN CRISIS WILL EITHER SPEED UP OR RE- 
ENFORCE THIS EVOLUTION. THE OTHER CONDITION FOR A EUROPEAN 
SUCCESS IN THE IRANIAN CRISIS IS AMERICA'S ABILITY TO REVISE 
ITS ATTITUDE TOWARDS TEHRAN. THERE IS LITTLE THAT WEIGHS AS 
MUCH IN THE EYES OF IRAN AS U.S. OPENING TOWARDS TEHRAN. 
GIVING UP THE `AXIS OF EVIL' DISCOURSE AND 25 YEARS OF U.S. 
SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN WOULD OPEN THE DOORS OF THE MIDDLE EAST 
TO WASHINGTON. BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR THIS, BECAUSE BUSH 
IS NOT NIXON AND CONDOLEEZZA RICE IS NOT KISSINGER. THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A RESOLUTION OF THE IRANIAN CRISIS IS THEREFORE 
LIMITED AND BY DEFAULT CHINA'S ROLE IS RE-ENFORCED." STAPLETON