US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2837

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002837 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O.: DECL: 10/11/12 
TAGS: EFIN, ECON, PGOV, PINS, NI 
SUBJECT:  NIGERIA: ABACHA FAMILY'S TIGHT GRIP ON LOOT 
 
 
REF:  A) ABUJA 01028 B) ABUJA 02276 (C) ABUJA 02767 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMB. HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASON 1.5 (B). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Chances are fleeting that President 
Obasanjo will see USD 1.2 billion in stolen Abacha 
loot.  Under pressure from Northern political leaders, 
Obasanjo released late military leader Sani Abacha's 
son Mohammed from prison September 24. With Mohammed's 
release, Obasanjo surrendered his best leverage over 
the Abacha family.  Obasanjo, who hoped for both 
political and federal budgetary benefits from the 
purported "Mohammed's release for USD 1.2 billion" 
exchange, may now end up empty-handed. With Mohammed's 
release, the Abachas will likely use some of the 
purloined funds to finance Obasanjo's political 
enemies.  This would be akin to an insurance policy 
against Obasanjo's recouping the entire USD 1.2 
billion. If Obasanjo is defeated in his reelection 
bid, the Abachas can be fairly certain that the 
election victors will not pursue them, and definitely 
not with the alacrity of Obasanjo.  End Summary. 
 
 
----------------- 
Obasanjo's Gamble 
----------------- 
 
 
2. (U) After almost three years of incarceration, Sani 
Abacha's eldest son Mohammed was released to a hero's 
welcome (by almost exclusively Northern well-wishers) 
on September 24.  His release resulted from the public 
agitation of many of Obasanjo's Northern political 
foes, led by House Speaker Ghali Na'Abba. 
 
 
 
 
3. (C) The private intervention of other Northern 
leaders such as Emir Bayero of Kano and the Kano State 
Governor Kwankwaso, an Obasanjo ally, were also 
crucial.  In effect, Obasanjo's political foes had 
successfully turned Mohammed's detention into a 
political rallying point in the North.  Mohammed 
symbolized Obasanjo's and the South's attempted 
"subjugation" of the North.  With Mohammed turning 
into a martyr in the North, Obasanjo's few allies in 
the region came under heat to pressure the President 
to give Mohammed his freedom. (Comment: That the 
agitation for Mohammed's release came now was not 
coincidental.  Believing Obasanjo was on the ropes 
because of the impeachment attempt, his foes did not 
want him to score a political or budgetary benefit by 
getting his hands on the Abacha trove. Adding insult 
to Obasanjo's injury, The Abachas apparently are 
pursuing a lawsuit to thwart Obasanjo's attempt to 
freeze their foreign bank accounts. End Comment.) 
 
 
4. (SBU) (Note: As part of an earlier deal to release 
Mohammed, the Abacha family agreed to return USD 1.2 
billion taken during Sani'Abacha's regime.  The GON 
also agreed to dismiss the murder charges against 
Mohammed for the assassination of Kudirat Abiola. 
When the murder charges were dismissed, the GON kept 
Mohammed in detention because the family did not hand 
over the USD 1.2 billion. End Note) 
 
 
5. (C) Since Mohammed's release, the Abacha mansion in 
Kano has received an endless stream of visitors.  Most 
have been politicians seeking publicity and many no 
doubt rushed there hoping to get their eager fingers 
on some Abacha loot. Some have even urged Mohammed to 
run for office.  While Mohammed probably will demur, 
the family will likely channel money to one of the 
anti-Obasanjo parties. In that former head of state 
Babangida supports the UNPP and NDP, chances are the 
Abachas will direct their support to the ANPP, and 
they may end up supporting its most salient candidate, 
former military ruler Mohammadu Buhari, another 
popular figure in Kano.  However, House Speaker Ghali 
Na'Abba has his eyes on the presidency and his remote 
dark horse chance in the PDP can be boosted by an 
injection of funds. 
 
 
------------------------------ 
Comment: Abachas Play for Time 
------------------------------ 
 
 
6. (C) It looks like Obasanjo has been finessed by the 
Abacha family and their allies.  Due to pressure from 
Northern politicians, Obasanjo released Mohammed, 
giving up the only real leverage he had to get the 
funds. In exchange, the Abacha clan gave him promises 
of questionable legal enforceability.  Additionally, 
it would be politically awkward for Obasanjo to 
publicly acknowledge that all he had in hand was an 
agreement but no money. 
 
 
7. (C) From the Abacha perspective, there is no 
incentive to hand Obasanjo USD 1.2 billion. Obasanjo 
is an embattled president facing a serious impeachment 
threat.  Moreover, his term is up in several months 
and people are telling the Abachas that Obasanjo will 
not be re-elected.  Thus the Abachas' interests are 
better served by temporizing with Obasanjo while using 
a portion of the money to fund his opposition to 
better ensure Obasanjo's defeat.  Given Nigeria's 
monetized politics, a portion of the USD 1.2 billion 
would make the Abacha family major stakeholders in the 
upcoming elections.  This would be an ironic, 
unfortunate twist of fate from 1998 when Sani Abacha's 
death placed the family in disrepute and opened the 
door to democratic elections that brought Obasanjo to 
office.  End Comment 
JETER