US embassy cable - 05RANGOON1015

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001015 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, BM 
SUBJECT: BURMA: THAI FM FINDS GOOD HEALTH, GOOD VIBES AMONG 
SENIOR GENERALS 
 
REF: RANGOON 989 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: CDA Shari Villarosa for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Thai FM Kantathi Suphamongkhon made a 
24-hour visit to Rangoon August 31-September 1, his first to 
Burma as Foreign Minister.  The highlight of the trip was a 
bilateral meeting with State Peace and Development (SPDC) 
Chairman Than Shwe, joined by Vice Chairman Maung Aye and 
other top regime generals.  The visit met a Thai objective to 
rebuild a rapport with the regime in the post-Khin Nyunt era, 
and also helped extinguish lingering rumors that Than Shwe 
had recently suffered a serious medical setback or that he 
and Maung Aye are involved in a power struggle.  All signs 
indicate that Than Shwe remains firmly at the top of the food 
chain and faces no immediate threat to his authority.  End 
Summary. 
 
2. (U) FM Kantathi, who arrived by a "special flight" on 
August 31, met on the morning of September 1 with SPDC 
Chairman Senior General Than Shwe.  The scheduled 
thirty-minute courtesy call, which took place at the 
"Credentials Hall" of the Parliament Building, turned into a 
broad exchange of views and lasted nearly an hour and half. 
Joining Than Shwe were SPDC Vice Chairman Vice Senior General 
Maung Aye, SPDC member and Joint Chief of Staff General Thura 
Shwe Mann, Prime Minister General Soe Win, Secretary-1 Lt-Gen 
Thein Sein, and FM Nyan Win. 
 
3. (C) According to a Thai Embassy source, who spent most of 
the visit with FM Kantathi, Senior General Than Shwe was in 
"very good" health, taking the lead and spending the first 35 
minutes of the bilateral meeting briefing Kantathi "without a 
pause."  The Thai source observed that Maung Aye made no 
interventions at the meeting, but added that relations among 
the top generals appeared to be entirely normal, with no 
signs of disunity or friction. 
 
4. (C) The Thai Embassy source added that neither Than Shwe 
nor Kantathi raised any contentious issues, since this was "a 
first visit, designed to establish a good rapport." 
Kantathi, said the source, did not raise the detention of 
Aung San Suu Kyi (although he apparently intimated he had 
done so in a post-meeting press conference in Rangoon).  Than 
Shwe did raise issues related to ASSK and the National League 
for Democracy (NLD) in his opening brief. 
 
5. (C) According to the Thai Embassy, Kantathi stuck to his 
schedule, although he dropped several "private visits" to 
tourist sites in order to phone his counterpart in Kuala 
Lumpur to discuss an urgent situation involving dozens of 
Thai citizens crossing the Thai-Malaysian border (NFI). 
Kantathi visited the University for Development of National 
Races, where he made a two million Baht cash donation, and 
held a separate bilateral meeting with FM Nyun Win. 
 
6. (C) Comment:  Although very few local observers still 
cling to last week's speculation that Than Shwe had recently 
suffered a debilitating medical setback or that Than Shwe and 
Maung Aye are involved in a power struggle (reftels), 
Kantathi's visit finally extinguished rumors that persisted 
because the regime's top two leaders had not made a public 
appearance since the rumors began.  Health problems or 
intra-regime tensions are not out of the question, but all 
signs indicate that Than Shwe remains firmly at the top of 
the heap.  End Comment. 
Villarosa