US embassy cable - 05SANJOSE2051

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 002051 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CEN FOR MKOPOLOW 
WHA/EPSC FOR KURS, LGUMBINER 
EB FOR WCRAFT, BLAMPRON 
E FOR DEDWARDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2015 
TAGS: ETRD, ECON, PREL, SOCI, CS 
SUBJECT: SECURITY OFFICIALS' CONFIDENCE GROWING AS CAFTA-DR 
DEBATE LOOMS 
 
REF: A. SAN JOSE 2038 
 
     B. SAN JOSE 2037 
 
Classified By: CDA Russell L. Frisbie for reasons 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C) During an official call August 31 on President 
Pacheco by General Craddock of U.S. Southern Command, the 
head of Costa Rica's national police said that as a result of 
growing public support for the U.S.-Central America-Dominican 
Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), police officials 
are less worried about their ability to respond to threats of 
violent street protests and a general strike.  Walter 
Navarro, head of Costa Rica's "Fuerza Publica" or national 
police, said that recent public opinion polls have shown a 
decided shift in favor of the free trade agreement. (Note: 
While ref B documents a real shift in public opinion over the 
past nine months, there has been little change recently.) 
 
2. (C) According to Navarro, the shift has caused union 
leaders and others who have been planning and threatening 
disturbances if the President sends the agreement to the 
Assembly for ratification to reconsider their strategy.  As a 
result, Navarro is increasingly confident that security 
officials can maintain order and preserve critical 
infrastructure in the face of what he expects will be smaller 
and shorter demonstrations. 
 
3.  (C) Interestingly, Pacheco did not turn to his Minister 
of Public Security, Rogelio Ramos, who was present at the 
meeting, for confirmation of this assessment.  Ramos is 
rumored to have recently threatened to resign his post if 
Pacheco submits CAFTA-DR for ratification--supposedly due to 
his belief that Costa Rican security forces would be 
incapable of enforcing and maintaining order in the face of a 
violent or sustained general strike. 
 
4.  (C) Comment:  This is the latest in a string of generally 
positive developments related to CAFTA-DR (reftels).  If 
Pacheco accepts Navarro's assessment as accurate, as he 
appears to have done, this would reduce one of the primary 
obstacles to Costa Rican ratification of the free trade 
agreement--Pacheco's fear of a violent backlash.  However, 
Minister Ramos remains the most influential voice on security 
matters, and Pacheco told General Craddock as the meeting 
ended that he would send the agreement for ratification "in 
due time." 
FRISBIE