US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2831

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002831 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: FRIENDS OF NIGERIA HEADS OF MISSION MEETING 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  Ambassador Jeter hosted a meeting with 
Chiefs of Mission of Germany, France, Canada, and the U.K. 
on October 7 to discuss upcoming Nigerian elections.  The 
Ambassador identified the need to coordinate exchanges of 
information and to possibly develop coordinated policies 
among this "friends of Nigeria" group.  The group came to 
broad consensus on the need to engage the Presidency and 
INEC over perceived shortcomings, particularly in voters 
registration, and to offer encouragement to Nigerian 
officials to improve the upcoming electoral process.  The 
friends group agreed on the utility of regular meetings to 
discuss election issues, and scheduled a follow-on meeting 
October 15 to discuss the flawed voters registration 
process and the issue of international elections monitors. 
End Summary. 
 
 
2.  (C)  Ambassador Jeter invited the Chiefs of Mission of 
Germany, France, Canada and the U.K. to meet October 7 to 
discuss the recently concluded voters registration exercise 
and possible coordination of diplomatic approaches to the 
GON on the electoral process.  There was broad consensus on 
the current political situation in Nigeria, with all 
agreeing that the recent impeachment move was intended to 
prevent President Olusegun Obasanjo from seeking re- 
election.  German Ambassador Dietmar Kreusel commented that 
the impeachment process was designed primarily to convince 
Obasanjo to withdraw his candidacy and that Obasanjo had 
lost most of his support in the North.  With widespread 
disaffection and large portions of his own party turning 
against him, Kreusel speculated, Obasanjo will not be able 
to "save himself by just paying out money."  The tone of 
Kreusel's statement implied that he wanted the group to be 
supportive of Obasanjo's reelection.  The group agreed that 
the party conventions and gubernatorial elections would 
also provide the opportunity for further disorder in the 
political arena. 
 
 
3.  (C)  All participants agreed that feedback from the 
registration process "was not great."  The question, 
according to Canadian High Commissioner Howard Strauss, was 
whether it was conducted in a manner acceptable to 
Nigerians.  Acting British High Commissioner Charles Bird 
concurred and commented that HMG would not be able to 
validate elections based solely on the results of this 
registration.  Still, he wondered if it would be possible 
to work with its results and move forward if actions are 
taken to improve the registration and other pre-election 
preparations.  One of the greatest difficulties identified 
by the group was that INEC appears to have no firm timeline 
for the conduct of the elections.  Without this, according 
to French Ambassador Jean-Marc Simon, it is impossible to 
judge whether adequate preparations have been made.  "The 
1999 elections were not perfect, but this one could be 
worse," he concluded. 
 
 
4.  (C)  The group then discussed broad outlines for an 
acceptable election.  Bird cautioned that efforts by the 
international community should not be seen as biased 
towards or against any candidate, but rather should focus 
on the process.  This was seconded by Ambassador Jeter. 
Bird said that HMG's goal is not just an election, but 
stability for Nigeria in its aftermath. There was no 
agreement on the benchmarks on which to judge the 
elections, especially on the "free-and-fair" standard; 
however, it was agreed that this subject would be the 
subject of future meetings.  Bird stated that the HMG would 
accept elections which are "broadly acceptable to the 
majority of Nigerians and which are not challenged in the 
courts."  There was some agreement among the guests that 
elections would not be conducted well, but that if the 
results are "reasonable and acceptable to Nigerians," the 
standards should be relaxed.  However, cautioned Jeter, "we 
can not set a different standard for Nigeria." 
 
 
5.  (C)  Kreusel said that the European Union (EU) had 
already agreed to a budget for observers for the Nigerian 
elections; however the clear EU preference was for a 
mission designed to observe both electoral preparations and 
conduct.  Two problems still facing any proposed observer 
mission were the lack of a timetable for elections and 
uncertainty of what the goals of the mission should be. 
Kreusel asked rhetorically whether it would be preferable 
to mount a strong mission, which would be subject to 
Nigerian elite criticism, or to back off and watch the 
process deteriorate.  Jeter commented that U.S. observers 
will act independently from the USG, and we do not 
influence their conclusions.  Kreusel confirmed similar 
expectations for the European observers.   Bird warned that 
HMG viewed the 1999 elections as the baseline for 
expectations in 2003, and that the Nigerians should strive 
to improve on that performance. 
 
 
6.  (C)  All participants agreed that three separate 
avenues should be explored:  public statements supporting 
INEC's efforts and encouraging more effective action; 
collective approaches to INEC highlighting deficiencies in 
the process and pushing it to take responsibility; and 
individual but coordinated approaches to the Presidency 
with warnings of the dangers of failed elections.  Kreusel 
suggested that the EU would discuss the issuance of a 
public statement to encourage rather than criticize the 
process at the earliest opportunity.  Ambassador Jeter 
suggested that the USG would explore the issuance of a 
similar, parallel statement. 
 
 
7.  (C)  COMMENT:   All attendees at this meeting agreed 
that the registration process, as it stands, has serious 
deficiencies that create the potential for poisoning 
elections based on the exercise.   The attendees also 
agreed that the process is salvageable.  There is a 
similarity of Western views on the election process; 
however, there may be some divergence as the process moves 
forward, especially with the German and French. 
Nevertheless, the convening of this group appears to be a 
useful mechanism and we will continue with this initiative. 
We will await the formulation of the EU public statement; 
Embassy will develop a parallel statement, clearing it with 
Washington before the statement is issued. 
JETER