US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1540

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001540 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, CE, Political Parties, Elections 
SUBJECT: NOW MORE THAN EVER:  SLFP OFFICIAL INDICATES PARTY 
COUNTING ON JVP ELECTORAL SUPPORT 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1508 
 
Classified By: Charge' d'Affaires, a.i. James F. Entwistle.  Reason:  1 
.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) Still unsure of either the election date or whether 
it can count on support from its former coalition partner, 
the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), 
President Chandrika Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party 
(SLFP) will kick off its hurried presidential campaign with a 
September 6 convention, which organizers hope will draw 
"lakhs and lakhs" of the party faithful from across the 
island to the capital.  The convention, which the President 
is expected to attend, could provide the first indication of 
how much public support Kumaratunga plans to offer nominee 
Mahinda Rajapakse's campaign.  An August 31 discussion with 
the SLFP's Executive Director indicates that the party has 
apparently done little to revamp its structure and build up 
its grass-roots organization since the April 2004 general 
elections and is clearly counting on the popular support from 
JVP voters.  Unable to claim success on the economic front, 
the SLFP may try to campaign on its record 0n the peace 
process--a tactic that is certain to alienate JVP 
sympathizers while furnishing the opposition United National 
Party (UNP) ample grounds for criticism.  End summary. 
 
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SLFP ELECTION CAMPAIGN: 
BIG BLUE (SLOWLY) GEARING UP 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) will kick off its 
presidential election campaign on September 6 with a party 
convention that will include the formal nomination of Prime 
Minister Mahinda Rajapakse as its candidate and the unveiling 
of the official SLFP manifesto.  (Note:  The actual date of 
the election has still not been announced, but it must take 
place before November 22.)  SLFP Executive Director Cecil 
Bandara Seneviratne told poloff August 31 that the party is 
expecting "lakhs and lakhs" of its 1.4 million official 
members to converge on the capital from all over the island 
for the event.  SLFP-affiliated trade unions, students and 
professional associations will march through the city in the 
afternoon, ending up at a public racecourse for a rally and 
Rajapakse's official introduction to "the masses" as the 
party's candidate.  President Chandrika Kumaratunga is 
expected to participate in the event, Seneviratne said. 
 
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THE JVP "HAVE TO COME WITH US" 
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3.  (SBU) Dismissing reports that the Sinhalese nationalist 
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) may run its own candidate 
(Reftel), Seneviratne asserted, "They have to come with us" 
or risk an embarrassingly poor showing at the polls.  (Note: 
The JVP's website on September 1 seemed to indicate an 
agreement was imminent, describing its talks with Rajapaks as 
"successful" and claiming that he has already agreed to 11 of 
the 12 points under discussion.  We have not confirmed this 
report with the SLFP.)  The JVP's core support base has been 
eroded by the former Marxists' failure to deliver on populist 
campaign promises made before the 2004 general elections, 
Seneviratne claimed.  In addition, some former JVP ministers 
were already regretting their party's "hasty decision" to 
quit the alliance in June, he maintained. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Moreover, based on results from presidential, 
general and provincial elections since 1994, the SLFP can 
count on a core vote of between 2.5 - 3 million, Seneviratne 
said;  the JVP, on the other hand, has never exceeded the 
800,000 it received when it ran alone in the 2001 general 
elections.  (Note:  In 1999, the last presidential election 
it contested, the JVP won only .04 percent of the vote.  This 
is the same amount captured by every third-party candidate 
since 1982.  It is hard to say how much of the popular vote 
the hard-working but ever-contentious JVP now commands. 
General assessments put its 2004 strength at about 
800,000-900,000 of Sri Lanka's 14 million registered voters. 
End note.)  Seneviratne stressed that the combined vote tally 
gleaned by the JVP and People's Alliance (of which the SLFP 
makes up the lion's share) together has either outstripped or 
nearly equaled (in the 2001 general election) the total 
reaped by the opposition United National Party (UNP) in every 
general, presidential and provincial election since 1994. 
Acknowledging that the upcoming presidential race will likely 
be close (and thus, JVP support more crucial than ever), 
Seneviratne reported that the SLFP had commissioned "an 
independent study" that showed "the PM (Rajapakse) is in the 
forefront." 
 
------------------------ 
PARTY MACHINERY: 
OVERHAUL STILL PENDING 
------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU) The SLFP had been unpleasantly surprised by how 
well its JVP coalition partner had done in the 2004 general 
elections, Seneviratne conceded, and realized a complete 
overhaul of the party bureaucracy and machinery was in order. 
 "The JVP is not lazy like the SLFP," he added frankly.  In 
addition, the former revolutionaries, unlike their more 
complacent SLFP counterparts, include extremely talented, 
"effective and enthusiastic speakers."  The SLFP, in 
contrast, failed to cultivate a similar cadre of 
rabble-rousing, crowd-pleasing orators, he noted, "like we 
had in the past."   Seneviratne's Executive Director position 
was specially created by President Kumaratunga, the party 
leader, as a first step, and he has been working ever since 
on a plan to restructure the party's organization and upgrade 
its grass-roots networks.  The effort, however, appears not 
to have progressed so far past the theoretical stage, and the 
Supreme Court's "surprise" decision that presidential 
elections must take place this year has suspended the 
initiative for now, Seneviratne indicated. 
 
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PEACE PROCESS AND POPULISM KEY PLANKS IN PLATFORM 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
6.  (SBU) Indicating a sheaf of papers, Seneviratne said he 
was still working on the party manifesto, due to be unveiled 
at the September 6 convention.  The manifesto will reflect 
the President's position on the peace process, he averred; 
there can be no back-tracking or concession to the JVP on 
this. "Otherwise, what did she lose an eye for?"  While 
Rajapakse may "discuss" the controversial plan to coordinate 
tsunami aid (now known as P-TOMS), with the Liberation Tigers 
 
SIPDIS 
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), Seneviratne conceded, the aspiring 
candidate could never agree to jettison completely the 
proposal.  Moreover, SLFP strategists have determined their 
candidate must win at least 21 percent of the minority (Tamil 
and Muslim) vote in order to prevail--another reason to 
highlight the peace process.  Seneviratne noted that 
Rajapakse has decided to "have a dialogue" with Ceylon 
Workers Congress leader A. Thondaman and Sri Lanka Muslim 
Congress Leader Rauff Hakeem to this end. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Asked where he thought the UNP would attempt to 
attack the SLFP's record in office, Seneviratne responded 
that his party could be vulnerable on the issue of 
corruption.  He hastily added, however, that corruption was 
not party policy and that the UNP should thus confine its 
attacks on the subject to particular individuals.  "As a 
party, we have not done anything wrong," he stipulated.  He 
acknowledged as well that the UNP would likely target the 
incumbent SLFP on the rising cost-of-living. When asked if 
the SLFP were contemplating any pre-electoral subsidies or 
other price-plunging schemes in the near term, Seneviratne 
retorted that his party would never resort to such "cheap 
political tricks."  In the same breath he noted, however, 
that "we have shifted the VAT and brought down the price of 
essential food items" and other commodities.  He added that 
the government has instructed the Ministry of Samurdhi (a 
social welfare program) to use up all of the nearly USD 3 
million allocated by Parliament for such people-friendly 
projects as vocational education, roads, and rural 
industries/employment by December 31.  (Note:  Another 
Samurdhi program the Government is now promoting provides 
individual loans of up to about USD 1,000 at 18 percent 
interest, of which 4 percent is subsidized by the 
Government.) 
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COMMENT 
8.  (C) The SLFP may be hoping to highlight its role in the 
peace process as the centerpiece of its campaign; 
unfortunately, however, after 10 years of an SLFP presidency, 
there is little the party can claim in the way of lasting 
success.  Indeed, the current situation--the P-TOMS 
hopelessly stalled in court and an emergency that targets 
Tamil suspects--is unlikely to win the SLFP many votes among 
minority communities.  Kumaratunga is the only SLFP President 
ever elected; among the party faithful, personal loyalty to 
her as the clear successor to her parents' political dynasty 
runs high.  The upcoming party convention may provide the 
first public indication of how vigorously President 
Kumaratunga plans to campaign for her would-be successor. 
Ongoing discussions with the JVP--and any substantial 
concessions Rajapakse may make to secure its backing--could 
still affect the warmth of her support.  But with even the 
SLFP's chief organizer admitting the race will be close, the 
former coalition partners need each other now more than ever. 
 Rajapakse will have to strike a very fine balance between 
getting JVP backing without jeopardizing the President's 
support. 
ENTWISTLE