US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1593

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL 
NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT: ARMENIA:  NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PASSES CONSTITUTIONAL 
AMENDMENTS 
 
REF: A) YEREVAN 1566 B) YEREVAN 1352 C) YEREVAN 1290 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) The Armenian National Assembly passed the proposed 
package of constitutional amendments on September 1, 
triggering a series of procedural steps that include a final, 
pro forma vote tentatively scheduled for mid- to 
late-September, and a referendum in November.  Opposition 
leaders suspended their 18-month boycott of Parliament to 
participate in the first days of the session, but walked out 
before the final vote.  In a series of monologues, opposition 
members vowed to campaign against the amendments in advance 
of the referendum.  The extraordinary session heightened our 
concerns that, despite our efforts, the Armenian political 
elite -- both the governing coalition and the opposition -- 
is not yet ready to join forces in support of the improved 
basic law.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
PARLIAMENT MOVES AMENDMENTS PACKAGE TO THIRD READING 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
2. (U) On September 1, the Armenian National Assembly 
approved the proposed package of constitutional amendments 
without significant changes to the Council of Europe (CoE) 
Venice Commission-approved text.  The package next moves to 
the third reading in mid- to late-September and then to a 
referendum in November.  The amendments cleared the 
131-member Armenian National Assembly with 98 votes.  One 
member, independent MP Manouk Gasparyan, abstained. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
REFERENDUM: OPPOSITION VOWS TO CAMPAIGN AGAINST AMENDMENTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
3. (C) Opposition leaders suspended their 18-month boycott of 
Parliament to participate in the August 29 through September 
1 session (ref A), but walked out before the final vote. 
Justice Bloc leader Stepan Demirchian said the Kocharian 
Administration's "penchant for clinging to power," and not 
the current constitution, is Armenia's major obstacle to 
democratization.  "The constitution has no provision that 
requires ballot box stuffing, election fraud and repression," 
he noted.  National Unity Party leader Artashes Geghamyan 
said that "disregard for the current constitution" has led to 
"widespread popular distrust and discontent."  Government 
authorities, according to Demirchian and Geghamyan, have 
repeatedly violated the existing constitution, which already 
guarantees free elections, human rights, and the rule of law. 
 "What makes these amendments different?" Demirchian asked. 
Both leaders said they would campaign against the amendments 
before the referendum. 
 
----------------------------------- 
AMENDMENTS ON THE WAY TO REFERENDUM 
----------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) In a cryptic description of the legislative process, 
National Assembly Deputy Chairman Tigran Torosian told 
members that drafters of the constitutional amendments may 
need to make changes to the approved text "beyond technical 
corrections" before the third reading of the amendments 
package.  Torosian's comments sparked protests from members, 
including United Labor Party MP Grigor Ghoujeyan, who said he 
believed that the ruling coalition would attempt to 
substitute last-minute changes (in violation of parliamentary 
rules) to drastically change the intent of the amendments. 
Presidential Assistant Armen Haroutunyan urged opposition 
members to "just be smart and use this chance, because it 
doesn't happen often that a President acts to limit his own 
powers." 
 
--------------------------------------- 
COMMENT:  A LONG ROAD TO THE BALLOT BOX 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The extraordinary session once again exacerbated 
concerns that, despite our efforts, members of the Armenian 
political elite -- both the governing coalition and the 
opposition -- are still unwilling to compromise.  Given 
limited public support for a referendum and unrealistically 
high voter participation thresholds, it is difficult to 
envisage a scenario that produces the approximately 730,000 
votes required to pass the referendum.  In 2002, President 
Kocharian mustered only 500,000 votes, amid serious voting 
irregularities, to win his second term in office. 
EVANS