US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA8241

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 008241 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KJUS, PINR, CO, 2006 Elections 
SUBJECT: OBSERVATIONS ON UPCOMING COURT DECISION ON 
REELECTION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood 
Reasons: 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: Commentators continue to differ in their 
predictions about the Colombian Constitutional Court's 
decision on President Uribe's reelection.  A leading 
newspaper recently published an extensive article predicting 
a 6-3 vote in favor of Uribe's reelection, while others 
suggest different outcomes, none of which would permit Uribe 
to run for a consecutive second term.  We understand that the 
Court could rule in late October. 
End Summary. 
 
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Four Scenarios 
-------------- 
 
2.  (U) Post's contacts agree on the four possible directions 
the Constitutional Court decision could take, but disagree on 
which is the more likely outcome.  The four scenarios are: 
 
--Allow reelection; 
--Allow non-consecutive reelection (as was the case prior 
to the 1991 Constitution); 
--Allow reelection, but only beginning with future 
Presidents; or 
--No reelection. 
 
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Leading Weekly Predicts 6-3 Vote 
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3.  (U) On August 21, prominent weekly newspaper El 
Espectador published an extensive article stating that, if 
the vote were held now, the Court would rule 6-3 in favor of 
President Uribe's reelection.  The article claimed to be 
based on knowledge of the legal opinion drafts of eight of 
the nine Constitutional Court magistrates.  (Note: the 
article caused the magistrates to issue a rare press release 
criticizing the newspaper for purportedly politicizing the 
Court's consideration of the reelection matter.  End Note.) 
 
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Inspector General Says Law Unconstitutional 
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4.  (U) The article reached the opposite conclusion to that 
of Inspector General (Procurador) Eduardo Maya, who wrote in 
July that the reelection law was "null" because of procedural 
irregularities associated with its passage in Congress.  Maya 
is regarded as a legal heavyweight whose opinion could be 
persuasive for some magistrates.  We understand that the 
Court has sided with the IG's recommendation in roughly 90 
percent of the cases it has heard since its inception in 1991. 
 
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Hybrid Scenarios 
---------------- 
 
5.  (C) In addition to potential up/down rulings, two 
additional scenarios are possible.  First, that the Court 
might rule in favor of reelection, but not consecutive, as 
was the case in Colombia from the late 1800s until the 1991 
Constitution.  Second, Bogota Law Association President 
Alfonso Clavijo has told us that the Court is considering 
striking a clause (the "transition paragraph") that states 
that the current President or any former President may be 
elected to an additional term.  The clause in question was 
added in the sixth round of voting (Senate plenary). 
Colombian law states that any significant modifications of 
legislation by either plenary must first be re-reviewed and 
re-voted by the relative committee.  In this case, re-review 
did not occur.  According to Clavijo, were the clause to be 
annulled, the law would enter into force only with future 
Presidents and Uribe could not benefit from it. 
 
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Factors That Could Influence Magistrates 
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6.  (C) The Court could be influenced by Uribe's high 
approval ratings.  Uribe continues to maintain 70 percent 
approval, and a recent poll showed roughly 65 percent 
favoring his reelection.  The majority of our political 
contacts argue reelection will stand and Uribe will be able 
to run in 2006.  The argument they use is along the lines of 
"no magistrate wants to be on the wrong side of public 
opinion."  Pro-Uribe actors are arguing that Congressional 
debate was lengthy and detailed by any standard. 
 
7.  (C) Uribe's early August appointment of former President 
Andres Pastrana -- a declared opponent of reelection -- as 
Ambassador to the U.S. might carry weight with some 
magistrates.  Senior Conservative Party members, including 
Senators Luis Humberto Gomez Gallo, Carlos Holguin, and Jesus 
Carrizosa, have told us that two Court magistrates are 
Pastrana loyalists.  While these contacts have not indicated 
first hand knowledge of a quid pro quo on supporting 
reelection, they are confident that Uribe asked Pastrana to 
lobby the Court in favor of reelection. 
 
8.  (C) On the other hand, we estimate that few if any of the 
magistrates (who serve staggered eight year terms) have 
high-level political ambitions.  As such, they are not 
necessarily concerned with a negative public reaction to a 
potential ruling against reelection.  Colombia's high courts 
(Constitutional, Supreme, and Council of State) are 
perceived to be biased towards the Officialist Liberal Party, 
an organization that strongly resists reelection (for obvious 
political reasons, including the prospect of facing Uribe in 
2006).  In particular, Liberal Party head and former 
President Cesar Gaviria -- a leading opponent of reelection 
-- appears to have several loyalists on the Court, including 
Court President Manuel Jose Cepeda.  The intent of the 
framers of the 1991 Constitution was strongly 
anti-reelection, and many members of the legal community 
continue to argue in favor of the spirit of the 1991 
Constituent Assembly. 
 
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Late October Ruling Possible 
---------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) President Cepeda told us recently that the Court 
would try to issue its ruling prior to its mid-November 
deadline because magistrates understood the importance of the 
matter for Colombia.  Cepeda's explanation of the procedural 
requirements and deadlines that must be met prior to issuing 
an opinion suggest that the Court could rule in late October. 
WOOD