US embassy cable - 05PARIS5922

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 005922 
 
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, EU, FR, PINR, SOCI, ECON 
SUBJECT: REPORT FROM THE FRENCH SOCIALIST PARTY'S "SUMMER 
UNIVERSITY" 2005 
 
REF: A. (A) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR 
 
        29AUG05 
     B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR 
        26AUG05 
     C. (C) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR 
        24AUG05 
     D. (D) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR 
        11AUG05 
     E. (E) PARIS 3722 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla 
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1.  (C) France's Socialist Party (PS) held the thirteenth 
edition of its annual "Summer University" on August 26 - 28 
(ref D).  This year, party leaders used the event to start 
drawing up the battle lines (ref C) between the rival 
populist and progressive factions -- the 'no' and the 'yes' 
camps that emerged from the May 29 referendum on the proposed 
EU Constitution (ref E).  These factions are contending for 
leadership of the party in the run-up to the party congress 
on November 18 - 20.  All active PS politicians insist that 
media speculation about a possible break-up of the party is 
overdone (ref B). 
 
2.  (C) Party members used this year's "Summer University" to 
size up in person the party's many would-be presidential 
nominees (ref A).  Former Finance Minister Dominique 
Strauss-Kahn emerged as the pace-setter among the 
presidential contenders.  Former Prime Minister Laurent 
Fabius failed to generate the groundswell of support he had 
hoped for among the opponents of the proposed EU Constitution 
and of the current party leader, Francois Hollande. 
Hollande, in his self-appointed role as the champion of 
transparency and democratic decision-making within the party, 
emerged strengthened in his position as party chief.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
"CURRICULUM" PATTERNED ON MINISTRY-LEVEL ISSUE AREAS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
3.  (C) The "Summer University" is an informal, offsite sort 
of event at which party members debate issues, network and 
plan strategy.  The workshops of this year's Socialist Party 
(PS) "Summer University" each focused on an issue area dealt 
with by a different government ministry.  The panels leading 
the workshops included representatives of the different 
factions -- "currents" in PS parlance -- dividing the party. 
According to the organizer of this year's "Summer 
University", Jean-Christophe Cambadelis (a National Assembly 
(NA) member from Paris) the idea was to "confront the 
different currents' proposals" in key issue areas in order to 
inform the debate over the different currents' platform 
proposals for the party.  Most of the PS's 150,000 or so 
party members will vote -- on Tuesday, November 9 to be exact 
-- on contending platforms in the run-up to the party 
congress scheduled for November 18 - 20.  The results of the 
voting, through a complex, proportional system, determine the 
leadership of the party until the next party congress. 
 
CALM OF DEBATE MASKS BITTERNESS OF DIVISIONS 
-------------------------------------------- 
3.  (C) The debate in the two dozen different workshops was 
carefully orchestrated to ensure that the top leaders of the 
two principal factions (ref C) never confronted one another 
on the same stage.  Former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius 
never crossed paths with party National Secretary Francois 
Hollande nor with former Economy Minister Dominique 
Strauss-Kahn.  Fabius is aiming to "federate" all those in 
the party who favor a more contestatory -- leftist and 
populist -- approach to social and economic policy. 
Hollande, as the top party official, and Strauss-Kahn, one of 
the most credible of the PS's many presidential contenders, 
are emerging as the "duo of reference" for the diverse, and 
by comparison realist and progressive, party establishment. 
The carefully observed civility of the debate in the 
workshops contrasted starkly with the resentment just under 
the surface against those like Fabius, who failed to respect 
the party's vote last December in support of the EU 
Constitutional treaty. 
 
PARTY ESTABLISHMENT CONFIDENT IT WILL RETAIN CONTROL 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
4.  (C) The resentment against Fabius and other "traitors to 
the party rules" is still running strong among rank-and-file 
members.  Hollande, in his self-appointed role as the 
champion of those who believe party members should be the 
final arbiters of decisions on the party's platform and 
nominees, retains the support even of many party members who 
voted against the proposed EU constitution last May.  For 
these reasons, Hollande, and the constellation of PS 
luminaries who support his management of the party, are 
confident that they can hold off the assault on the party 
leadership being mounted by Fabius and his allies. 
 
FABIUS FAILS TO SPARK ENTHUSIASM 
-------------------------------- 
5.  (C) Fabius had hoped to trigger a groundswell of support 
for his cause at the "Summer University."  He failed to do 
so.  Even those party currents that contest the leadership of 
Hollande -- and the ever more "social democratic" approach it 
represents -- are keeping their distance from Fabius, at 
least for now.  The anti-American populists of the New World 
(NM) current led by NA member and former minister Henri 
Emmanuelli and Senator and former minister Jean-Luc Melanchon 
will back Fabius in the end.  Emmanuelli and Melenchon, 
however, intend to put their own platform proposal ("motion" 
in PS lingo) to the party membership in the run-up to 
November's congress.  (Fabius will probably associate himself 
with others rather than present his own motion, because, as 
one rank-and-file party member put it, "he wouldn't dare put 
up his own motion -- it would show how little support he 
has.") 
 
THE "NEW SOCIALIST PARTY" (NPS) 
------------------------------- 
6.  (C) The New Socialist Party (NPS), a current of 
"neo-radical," anti-globalization populists led by NA member 
Arnaud Montebourg and EU Parlementarian Vincent Peillon, is 
currently divided (cynics say tactically) over whether to 
support Fabius (Montebourg is for, Peillon against). 
Long-time observers of the PS (in this case Jean-Christophe 
Le Duigou of the once communist General Confederation of 
Labor (CGT)) call this NPS maneuver a "transparent effort" to 
create a "swing vote" that, come the party congress, can 
"sell itself" to one or the other camp for "what they are all 
interested in but never talk about" -- their faction members' 
selection to be the party's candidates for a range of 
legislative and local offices. 
 
MULTIPLICITY OF WOULD-BE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEES 
--------------------------------------------- - 
7.  (C) According to Le Duigou, the national party 
leadership's role in deciding who runs for what also explains 
the plethora of candidates for the party's presidential 
nomination.  Many of these -- former ministers Jacques Lang, 
Elizabeth Guigou, and Martine Aubry for example -- have 
little possibility of winning the nomination, and less 
possibility of winning the election thereafter (though Lang 
currently leads in the opinion polls among PS contenders). 
By hinting at a candidacy of their own however (which the 
media willingly strings along), they strengthen their hand in 
the complex intra-party poker game of drawing up the party's 
candidate lists for a range of legislative and local offices. 
 
FABIUS PLUS NM PLUS NPS IS A LONG SHOT, BUT POSSIBLE 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
8.  (C) The rejection of the proposed EU Constitution last 
May (ref E) by a healthy majority of voters was, in large 
part, also a rejection of France's political class.  Fabius 
and his allies in the PS interpret this vote -- a strong 
majority of left-leaning voters voted 'no' -- as representing 
a lasting, popular sentiment that is demanding an end to 
business as usual in the way France is ruled.  Indeed, the 
earthquake of the constitutional referendum has prompted a 
range of reform proposals from parties of both left and right 
and center (ref D).  If the anti-establishment feeling that 
triumphed in May should turn out to have staying power, it is 
conceivable that, come next November, there may be more PS 
party members than there are now ready to side with the left 
of the party and support its call for radical change.  It is 
still a long shot, however. 
COUNTDOWN TO COMPROMISE OR SHOWDOWN 
----------------------------------- 
9.  (C) Hollande, in his closing address to "University" 
attendees, stressed his conviction that the party would 
remain unified and would settle on a unifying platform at the 
upcoming November congress.  The contending platform 
proposals in their final form must be submitted by September 
17 for the consideration of party members.  Party members 
will vote on them on November 9.  Then, at the congress, a 
large committee (with representation proportional to the vote 
results) will try to hammer out a compromise platform that 
all can support.  This worked at the last party congress in 
May 2003, in a deal that saw Hollande take the number one 
slot in the party hierarchy and Fabius the number two 
position. 
 
AND IT MAY WORK AGAIN THIS TIME 
------------------------------- 
10.  (C) The one thing about which Fabius and Hollande -- and 
nearly every other active, PS politician -- agree is that 
splitting the party is tantamount to abandoning the next 
presidential election to the center-right's candidate.  While 
the ideological differences between neo-radical populists and 
progressive social democrats are now more marked than before, 
people such as Fabius and Strauss-Kahn know this is their 
last shot at the presidency.  The system is such that, in the 
back-rooms, there are lots of chips in play to fashion 
compromises with second-tier factional leaders and their 
followers.  The trick will be to come to agreement on a 
compromise presidential candidate with strong credentials 
among those calling for aggressive, "neo-radical" reform and 
those calling for the PS to become a social democratic party 
similar to those in other major European countries.  Many of 
the "Summer University" attendees, asked which PS leaders 
would be able to best fill that role, named former Prime 
Minister Lionel Jospin and, somewhat surprisingly, former 
Environment Minister and NA member Segolene Royal (who 
happens to be Francois Hollande's longtime domestic partner). 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
11.  (C) The PS has a long tradition of democratic 
decision-making by party members.  Those, like Hollande, who 
trust the democratic process, believe that it will -- somehow 
-- catalyze a solution to the party's critical problems: deep 
ideological division and no strong candidate for 2007.  It is 
far too early to try and project what the socialists' 
solution to this tandem of problems will turn out to be. 
That Fabius got right the temper of the left's electorate, 
and that the party leadership's position lost among its own 
voters, does give Fabius and the 'no' camp some democratic 
credibility.  As Fabius supporter and EU Parliamentarian 
Henri Weber said, "Hollande speaks for the party; Fabius 
speaks for the people."  It remains to be seen how the PS 
will square the circle of a realist party leadership and an 
electorate clearly tempted by more radical approaches. 
Participants at the "Summer University" are a self-selection 
of the most active party members.  They were intensely 
interested in the myriad ways the PS might meet its current, 
daunting challenges.  Contrary to what much press coverage 
would have people believe, most seemed quite serene, 
expressing full confidence that they, as the party members, 
would eventually work something out for their party through 
open debate and free and fair balloting.  END COMMENT. 
 
NOTE 
---- 
12.  (U) For daily updates on this and other France internal 
political and external relations issues subscribe to Embassy 
Paris SIPRNet Daily Report -- at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm or e-mail 
OrdemanLT@state.sgov.gov. 
STAPLETON