US embassy cable - 05CAIRO6710

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 006710 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, EG, Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, UPDATE #4: 
 
REF: CAIRO 6654 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  While Cairo streets are aflutter with banners urging 
the populace to reelect the President, the novelty of the 
presidential campaign is wearing off.  Kifaya has launched a 
legal challenge to halt the elections, but is unlikely to 
succeed.  The National Council for Human Rights (NCHR) has 
unveiled plans to assess the election.  Unconfirmed reports 
suggest that the GOE may be seeking to purge uncooperative 
judges from the roster of election supervisors.  Finally, 
there are indications that the NDP's get-out-the-vote 
machinery is grinding into action.  End Summary. 
 
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Declarations of Allegiance 
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2.  (C)  Thousands of banners have sprung up around Cairo and 
other cities over the course of the campaign.  What was a 
steady flow at first has become a flood during the past week. 
 There are plenty of paid Mubarak campaign ads, distinguished 
by their green background and airbrushed photo of the 
president in shirtsleeves, with the slogan "Leadership ... 
and Crossing Over to the Future" (a phrase that invokes the 
President's role in the 1973 Ramadan/Yom Kippur War in which, 
as a general in charge of the air force, he played a key role 
in Egypt's morale-boosting crossing of the Suez Canal). 
 
3.  (C)  In much greater numbers, however, NDP stalwarts, as 
well as business owners are "spontaneously" blanketing the 
city with banners.  These unpaid ads are variations on a 
common theme:  i.e., "Mr. So-and-so urges Yes! Yes! Yes! to 
Mohammad Hosni Mubarak."  In most cases, "Mr. So-and-so" is 
an NDP member hoping for the party's nomination to run for 
parliament, or a prominent local businessman seeking to 
ingratiate himself with the NDP.  The banners, which are 
technically free for the Mubarak campaign, do nothing to 
diminish the perception that Mubarak is dominating the 
campaign. 
 
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Kifaya's Hail Mary Pass 
----------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Kifaya has been largely quiet for much of the 
campaign.  Aside from a few small and unremarkable 
demonstrations, as well as speculation about plans for larger 
demonstrations on election day, the most notable development 
has been Kifaya's announcement of a lawsuit calling for a 
halt to the election.  Kifaya lawyers have argued that the 
July report of the Judge's Club, which asserted that the 
GOE's claimed turnout (in excess of 50 percent) for the May 
25 referendum was fraudulent, challenges the legality of the 
entire referendum, which, of course, ratified the 
constitutional amendment calling for direct election of the 
president.  The Judges' Club report asserted that turnout on 
May 25 was in fact three percent. 
 
5.  (C)  Kifaya hopes that the State Council's Supreme 
Administrative Court will rule that because the referendum 
was profoundly flawed, the GOE must cancel the September 7 
election, re-do the referendum, and then proceed according to 
the results of the new referendum.  (Comment:  While we see 
the logic in the Kifaya complaint, we do not think it likely 
that the court will rule in Kifaya's favor.  End comment.) 
 
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The NCHR Weighs In 
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6.  (C)  In a confirmation of earlier reports that the 
NCHR--a quasi-independent body established by the GOE in 
2003--is seeking to play a role in assessing the presidential 
campaign and election, NCHR President Dr. Boutros 
Boutros-Ghali has announced that the organization's 
operations center, and 222 volunteer lawyers assigned to each 
of the nation's parliamentary constituencies, will collect 
reports and complaints about the conduct of the election, in 
order to compile an overall NCHR report to send to the GOE. 
(Comment:  After much anticipation, the NCHR released its 
first annual report on human rights in Egypt in early 2005. 
The report surprised many observers for its relatively candid 
criticism of the GOE.  We think that NCHR engagement with the 
elections is a positive step, though everything will depend 
on the resulting report.  End comment.) 
 
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Rumors of a GOE Move against the Critical Judges 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
7.  (C)  Generating uncomfortable associations with past GOE 
moves (by both Nasser and Mubarak) against the judiciary, 
there are multiple unconfirmed reports in circulation that 
the Ministry of Justice has notified 260 sitting judges (or 
450, or 700, or 1700, depending upon the source) that their 
services--as constitutionally-mandated supervisors of the 
election--will not be needed on September 7.  The most common 
interpretation of these rumors is that the GOE is eliminating 
from consideration those judges who have supported the calls, 
by the Judges Clubs of Alexandria and Cairo, for a boycott by 
the judges of their supervisory duties if the GOE refuses to 
provide them with legal and financial autonomy.  Post is 
seeking confirmation of these reports.  The judges have stuck 
to their schedule to announce their decision about 
supervising/boycotting the election on September 2. 
 
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Presidential Election Commission 
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8.  (C)  PEC sources announced on August 30 that the 
campaigns are proceeding smoothly and in line with all 
applicable regulations.  Regarding the actual locations of 
the polling stations, which the GOE is in the process of 
consolidating from more than 54,000 to about 9,000, neither 
the PEC nor the Interior Ministry have yet announced the 
location of the polls.  Several opposition parties continue 
to complain that they have not yet received copies of the 
voter lists from the GOE, which they complain prevents them 
from reviewing the lists for ineligible (or dead) voters, or 
from targeting likely voters in their campaign activities. 
 
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The Old Get-Out-the-Vote Machine Creaks into Action 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
9.  (C)  The Cairo rumor mill is alive with stories of GOE 
and NDP officials beginning to mobilize voters through 
suspect means.  Cairo and Alexandria cafe owners have 
complained of police pressure to put up pro-Mubarak posters. 
Police stations and local councils in some areas are 
reportedly telling private businesses that their future 
relationships with these government customers will depend on 
whether or not the businesses get their employees to vote. 
Minister of Water Resources Mahmoud Abou Zayd has reportedly 
told Ministry employees that they will all receive an LE 20 
"transportation allowance" on election day if they agree to 
vote.  (Note:  LE 20, which is about $3.50, is sizeable sum 
for GOE employees.  It would buy about 20 one-way bus 
tickets, or thirty subway rides, or a taxi ride across Cairo. 
 End note.)  We have not/not yet received any reports that 
suggest that workers are receiving explicit instructions 
about how they should cast their votes.  (Comment:  At this 
point in the campaign, we think that the GOE and NDP are more 
concerned about turnout as opposed to the percentage of 
voters who will support the President.  After decades of 
preposterously inflated referendum results, the GOE and NDP 
face a significant challenge in organizing a free, fair, and 
transparent election that has a respectable turnout.  End 
comment.) 
 
 
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http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
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State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES