US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1363

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001363 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: A PRESIDENTIAL FRIEND TALKS ABOUT HIS TALK WITH 
THE PRESIDENT 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D) 
 
1. Summary: During an August meeting with the Consul General, 
respected constitutional lawyer and former personal attorney 
of President Obasanjo Dr. Tunji Abayomi recounted a 90-minute 
July conversation with President Obasanjo.  Abayomi described 
the President as fit and not acting like someone ready to 
leave office.  Regarding the 2007 election, Obasanjo did not 
commit himself except to state his opposition to former head 
of state Babangida, current Vice President Atiku and former 
Lagos military governor Buba Marwa, the current "big three" 
(or two and a half) contenders for the ruling PDP 
presidential nomination.  Obasanjo also informed Abayomi that 
he was performing radical surgery on the PDP by excising 
pro-Atiku officials, then using both carrot and stick to 
convince pro-Atiku PDP state governors to abandon the Vice 
President.  According to Abayomi, Obasanjo exuded confidence 
in his ability to determine the 2007 PDP presidential 
nomination.  End summary. 
 
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 OBASANJO AIMS TO RETAIN PDP LEADERSHIP TO 2007 AND BEYOND 
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2.  (C) Dr. Tunji Abayomi, one of Nigeria's foremost 
constitutional lawyers, recounted a long one-on-one 
conversation with President Obasanjo, at the president's farm 
in Ota, Ogun State.  During a ninety-minute conversation 
Obasanjo shared his insights on party politics, particularly 
the quest for the PDP presidential nomination. 
 
3.  (C) Being much too coy to be pinned down as to his future 
political intentions, even by his former attorney, Obasanjo 
appeared in fine form.  Affable and expansive that evening, 
Obasanjo looked like someone enjoying his job and gave no 
indication that he was readying himself to leave it, 
according to Abayomi.  Obasanjo's body language and 
deliberate choice of words gave the distinct impression of a 
man still juggling with the idea of somehow extending his 
tenure beyond 2007, concluded Abayomi. 
 
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OBASANJO DISMISSES RIVALS, MAY SUPPORT DARK HORSE GOVERNOR 
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4.  (C) OBJ was openly dismissive of the three most 
talked-about contenders for the PDP nomination, declaring he 
would not allow the nation to fall into the hands of any one 
of these "thieves."  He described former head of state 
General Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) and vice-president Atiku 
Abubakar as "six of one, one-half dozen of the other," both 
unregenerate kleptocrats unsuited to carry forward the 
reforms Obasanjo has started.  The President also discounted 
former Lagos military governor Marwa as "a miniature IBB" who 
would transform into a "big IBB" if given the chance to 
occupy Nigeria's first office. 
 
5.  (C) According to Abayomi, Obasanjo will do all in his 
power to prevent one of the "big three" from succeeding him. 
Apparently, the President's eyes are fixed on the pool of 
pro-Obasanjo PDP Governors to find his preferred candidate. 
"Four of the last five American Presidents were governors. 
Why can't that happen in Nigeria?" Obasanjo rhetorically 
asked Abayomi.  While Obasanjo clearly was toying with the 
idea of supporting a friendly governor he would not reveal 
which governor(s) he might have in mind, stated Abayomi. 
 
6.  (C) Obasanjo informed Abayomi that he was doing the early 
spadework needed to influence the nomination by purging the 
party's national secretariat of pro-Atiku elements.  Obasanjo 
claimed to have, in foiling an Atiku contrivance against him, 
forced the resignation of then PDP national chairman Audu 
Ogbeh earlier this year.  Obasanjo asserted Atiku had schemed 
with Ogbeh to schedule a PDP conference early this year in 
which Atiku hoped to be anointed the presidential contender. 
This would have effectively made the President a lame duck, 
Obasanjo confided to Abayomi.  Having gotten wind of this 
device, the President moved swiftly to clip Ogbeh, replacing 
him with an ally.  Obasanjo has been doing similar 
housecleaning of the national secretariat since then. 
 
7.  (C) Obasanjo also claimed that he would delay the 
national convention until he was sure he had removed enough 
of Atiku's cronies from national positions.  He is taking a 
similar tack with the State secretariats.  Obasanjo beamed to 
Abayomi that state governors, including those currently 
aligned with Atiku, ultimately would cross to his side.  The 
President said he would extend the carrot but also brandish 
the stick to get the recalcitrant governors to line up behind 
him.  That stick was the specter of corruption charges and 
investigations, presumed Abayomi. 
8.  (C) Returning to his vice president, OBJ indicated that 
Atiku has little room to maneuver.  If Atiku leaves the PDP 
or acts like a spoiler within the party, "I will deal with 
him," Obasanjo told Abayomi.  Abayomi understood this to mean 
Obasanjo would unleash the Economic and Financial Crimes 
Commission to uncover Atiku's alleged misdeeds.  However, if 
a chaste Atiku quietly remains in the party and forgets about 
pursuing the nomination, OBJ said he would ensure Atiku a 
"soft landing." 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C) Comment:  If his conversation with Abayomi is 
indicative, Obasanjo currently feels the wind at his back and 
believes he can get the PDP under his control in order to 
sculpt the 2007 nomination process.  Whether that process 
will be in his own image or that of a proxy is a big 
question.  From what Abayomi and other interlocutors have 
said, the observation rings true that Obasanjo is 
simultaneously entertaining thoughts of self-succession and 
of a faithful surrogate.  While Obasanjo's ship seems the 
biggest and also the fastest right now, he still has to 
contend with many opponents as well as many political 
variables, some of which lie outside his control.  Thus, the 
action contemplated by Obasanjo as stated in his conversation 
with Abayomi may not withstand the test of Nigeria's dynamic 
political reality.  However, that test lies somewhere in the 
future.  The import of the conversation with Abayomi is that 
it furnishes some insight into the President's current 
political machinations.  End comment. 
BROWNE