US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI6691

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006691 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PREL, EAID, ECON, PGOV, IN, PK, AF, UNGA, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: PUSHING INDO-PAK DELIVERABLES FOR UNGA MEETING 
 
REF: A. ISLAMABAD 11438 (NOTAL) 
     B. NEW DELHI 5226 
     C. NEW DELHI 2994 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Although the bonhomie and impressive "to do" 
list that emerged from the April "cricket summit" (Ref C) 
gave a palpable boost to Indian perceptions of Indo-Pak 
relations, the relationship soured in New Delhi's eyes after 
the GOI reported worsening trends on cross-border 
infiltration and terrorism that they linked to Pakistan-based 
groups (Ref B).  What is needed now are quick deliverables 
with robust PR value that demonstrate the resolve of both 
sides to push the process forward.  PM Singh plans to meet 
with Kashmiri separatist leaders in Delhi on September 5, 
well before UNGA.  Delhi has also been focused on transit 
rights through Pakistan for its aid to Afghanistan.  Movement 
on these two key barometer issues could help to energize the 
process and give both sides needed political cover for more 
difficult steps on benchmark issues like demilitarization of 
the Siachen Galcier.  End Summary. 
 
Dialogue Yielded Incremental Progress, Bonhomie 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2.  (C) The Second Round of the Composite Dialogue yielded 
some incremental progress, most notably on codifying nuclear, 
missile and conventional CBMs.  More important, the talks 
provided a forum to keep Indo-Pak interlocutors engaged with 
each other to build positive atmospherics.  However, absent a 
periodic breakthrough that galvanizes public support for the 
process, well-connected columnists such as "Times of India" 
Foreign Affairs Editor Indrani Bagchi (often mouthpiece for 
the MEA) lament that the process may grind to a halt.  The 
three prior PR boosts -- resumption of cricket ties, the 
cross-LoC bus, and Musharraf's Delhi visit -- have now faded 
from the public's eye, and a new symbol of progress is 
needed, not a laundry list of someday-deliverables like that 
which emerged from the cricket summit, but one or two 
high-level policy initiatives that could be implemented at a 
pen-stroke and would resonate well at home for both leaders. 
 
GOI Can Offer Serious (if not Substantive) Kashmir Dialogue 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
3.  (C) According to press and our Srinagar contacts, PM 
Singh plans to meet with Kashmiri separatist leaders in Delhi 
on September 5, which should give Musharraf a useful 
Kashmir-oriented deliverable.  Our Srinagar contacts tell us 
that Congress MP Prof. Saifuddin Soz helped clear the way for 
this meeting to kick-off a GOI dialogue with the separatists. 
 Interestingly, Soz discounted the role of Kashmir activist 
(and Gandhi family confidant) Wajahat Habibullah in arranging 
this breakthrough.  Separately, Jammu and Kashmir Liberation 
Front chairman Yasin Malik told us that the PM would not have 
to lead GOI talks with the separatists as long as a GOI 
representative with sufficient heft served as their 
interlocutor.  Yasin listed NSA MK Narayanan, D/NSA VK 
Nambiar, and IB chief ESL Narasimhan as potential 
representatives with sufficient gravitas.  This dialogue will 
not lead to an immediate, substantial policy change, but the 
political signal of New Delhi taking the separatists 
seriously could be packaged as a significant deliverable that 
President Musharraf could deploy at home.  We will encourage 
our GOI contacts in furtherance of this goal, building on the 
Prime Minister's oft-stated commitment to reach out to the 
Kashmiris. 
 
Transit for Afghan Aid Would Win GOI Kudos 
------------------------------------------ 
4.  (C) The PM's recent visit to Afghanistan reminded the GOI 
of the high cost it faces in shipping Afghan aid through 
Iran.  The incremental easing of Indian agricultural imports 
to Pakistan (Ref A) could be used as a precedent to renew the 
GOI request for overland transit through Pakistan.  We 
understand from the Foreign Ministry that the GOP is now 
allowing transits on a limited basis, but a public 
declaration by Pakistan would play very well here.  To help 
alleviate any possible suspicion, we could soft-peddle to the 
MEA any security requirements the GOP might levy, such as 
inspecting shipments or escorting trucks, in the greater 
interest of improving the flow of Indian assistance and 
drastically increasing the value of India's aid to 
Afghanistan.  Pakistani concerns of losing market share in 
Afghanistan to Indian goods would be answered by allowing 
only Indian aid deliveries as a first step.  Transit through 
Pakistan that eliminates the cost of ocean and land transit 
through Iran would also help reduce the GOI's burgeoning ties 
with Iran.  Incoming MEA Director (Pakistan) Saggar was 
receptive to these proposals during our August 31 
introductory office call. 
 
Comment: Take Two Robust CBMs Every Three Months 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5.  (C) These possible deliverables are not glamorous, nor do 
they solve the "core issues" of terrorism and Kashmir, but 
they do try to nourish the kernels of confidence that the 
Composite Dialogue process planted.  Many of the topics 
broached in formal Indo-Pak talks over the past year have 
proven too politically thorny for either side to concede yet. 
 Without succumbing to the temptation for mediation, we need 
to help encourage the two sides to find the low-hanging fruit 
to feed this nascent relationship until it can fend for 
itself.  Progress on the internal Kashmir dialogue or Afghan 
transit could help to dilute the recent sourness over the 
issue of cross-border terrorism, and might help to create an 
environment for the two sides to make progress on the more 
politically challenging Composite Dialogue topics, such as 
demilitarization of the Siachen Galcier.  End Comment. 
 
6.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http//www.state.sgov/p/sa/newdelhi) 
MULFORD