US embassy cable - 02HARARE2256

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002256 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: MEETING WITH EDDISON ZVOBGO 
 
REF: A. A) HARARE 2193 
 
     B. B) HARARE 1992 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Kimberly Jemison.  Reasons 1.5 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
 1.  (C) Summary: In an October 7 meeting, Eddison Zvobgo, 
provided insight into the upcoming Insiza by-election and the 
treason case against Morgan Tsvangirai.  He also had many 
interesting things to say about the food situation and its 
likely affect on rural support for ZANU-PF.  Zvobgo said 
ZANU-PF would win the Insiza by-election and that the treason 
case against Morgan Tsvangirai would be dismissed.  Zvobgo 
also said the deteriorating food situation, particularly in 
the rural areas, would erode ZANU-PF support as deaths 
increase.  End Summary. 
 
Food Crisis Dominates 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) On October 7, Amb and Poloff met with Dr. Eddison 
Zvobgo, an elder statesman in the ruling party who has been 
estranged from President Mugabe since 2000, and his daughter 
Karina.  Zvobgo lamented the fact that there was no food in 
his province of Masvingo and that there were increasing signs 
of malnutrition among the population--confirming similar 
assessments of the food situation we made in Matabeleland 
North and South and Manicaland during our pre-rural council 
election tours (reftel A).  Zvobgo said he thought there 
would be starvation deaths by the end of October. 
 
3.  (C) Zvobgo said that increasing levels of starvation and 
deaths in the rural areas would eventually weaken the ZANU-PF 
base.  He also expressed concerns about urban riots because, 
unlike the rural population, the urban population will not 
suffer silently.  Zvobgo did reiterate his claim during a 
previous conversation with Polchief and Poloff (See reftel B) 
that ZANU-PF supporters are bearing the brunt of food 
shortages, since they are concentrated in rural districts. 
Both he and his daughter seemed to think MDC supporters who 
are concentrated in urban areas are in much better shape. 
 
4.  (C) The Ambassador asked whether food was being used as a 
weapon as it had been in Matabeleland during the early 1980s. 
 Zvobgo replied that food has been and still is being used as 
a weapon, particularly in Masvingo, southern Manicaland, and 
Matabeleland--all areas that did not fully support ZANU-PF in 
the presidential elections.  Zvobgo said Mashonaland Central 
is getting the most food because the province voted most 
strongly for ZANU-PF in the presidential election.  NOTE: The 
Zimbabwe Election Support Network reported that Mugabe 
received 84 percent of all votes cast in Mashonaland Central 
while in Masvingo and Midlands provinces he received 70 and 
63 percent, respectively.  END NOTE. 
 
5.  (C) The Ambassador also pointed out the length of time it 
took to get the Memorandum of Understanding with WFP on food 
imports signed and he wondered if certain elements within the 
Cabinet did not want international food assistance.  Zvobgo 
did not appear surprised at the length of time it took to get 
the MOU signed.  He did say that the party elite did not have 
a problem with international aid per se but with the lack of 
control ZANU-PF would have over distribution. 
 
6.  (C) Zvobgo and Karina gave anecdotal evidence about the 
depth of the food crisis.  Karina said she would bring corn 
meal to Harare from Masvingo occasionally to the nurses she 
works with because they cannot find any corn meal.  They have 
the money for purchase but there is little or no corn meal 
available in Harare.  Zvobgo said that a 50-kg bag of corn 
was selling for a minimum of 1300 Zimbabwe dollars, 1.5 times 
the official controlled price, and some businessmen were 
selling it for 1700. 
 
PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS 
-------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Asked about the upcoming October 26-27 by-election to 
replace a recently deceased MDC MP from Insiza constituency, 
Zvobgo thought that ZANU-PF would win because of shenanigans. 
 Zvobgo said the vote would be evenly split even though the 
Matabeleland South constituency is heavily pro-MDC and the 
MDC ought to win in a free and fair process. 
 
8.  (C) The Ambassador brought to Zvobgo,s attention that 
there were probably some within ZANU-PF who were trying to 
regain the party's two-thirds majority (100 votes) in 
Parliament before the 2005 elections in order to have enough 
votes to change the constitution.  Zvobgo did not seem to 
think this possible because ZANU-PF would have to get rid of 
seven MDC MPs and then win all seven Parliamentary 
by-elections. 
 
TSVANGIRAI TREASON CASE LIKELY TO BE DISMISSED 
 
SIPDIS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
9.  (C) Zvobgo thought the treason case against MDC President 
Morgan Tsvangirai, scheduled for November 11, would be 
dismissed because of the inadmissibility of the implicating 
videotape.  According to Zvobgo, MDC attorneys finally 
received the state,s evidence against Tsvangirai last week. 
Among the papers was the tape, which Zvobgo claimed had been 
heavily edited to show only the most harmful statements. 
Even then it was often inaudible.  Zvobgo thought the 
questionable tape and the lack of credibility of the state's 
chief witness, Ari Ben-Menashe, would compel the judge to 
dismiss the case before it really starts based on the absence 
of a reasonable suspicion of guilt.  NOTE: Zimbabwe law 
dictates that (oral) testimony be incontrovertible and in its 
totality.  END NOTE. 
 
10.  (C) Zvobgo reiterated his view that even Zimbabwe's 
altered judicial system could not convict an innocent person 
of a serious crime.  However, he was concerned that the case 
might not be dismissed immediately if one of the new, 
inexperienced judges hears the case and it could drag on for 
6-8 months before a final ruling to dismiss the case is 
issued.  Zvobgo said he thought a protracted case would ruin 
Tsvangirai,s reputation and might damage the MDC. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
11. (C) COMMENT: While there is not much new in Zvobgo's 
views, he is always interesting as one of the few major 
figures who talks to both sides of the political divide.  END 
COMMENT. 
SULLIVAN