US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA1398

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001398 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CG 
SUBJECT: RUMORS AND REALITIES IN NORTH KIVU 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4. b/d. 
 
1. (U)  Rumors of war are running rampant again in North 
Kivu, fed in large part by General Laurent Nkunda's contacts 
with the international press.  Nkunda has boldly declared his 
intent to recommence hostilities in the DRC sometime soon, 
with the alleged backing of hundreds, if not thousands, of 
disgruntled Congolese military deserters, mostly from the 
ex-RCD element. 
 
2. (C)  As is usually the case in the Congo, there is some 
truth in this mix.  Both Defense Minister Adolphe Onusumba 
(who just returned from Goma) and North Kivu Governor Eugene 
Serufuli agree that Nkunda likely has taken up residence 
somewhere in the Virunga Park near the Rwandan border. 
Interestingly, both Onusumba and Serufuli (both RCD members 
who maintain close connections with Kigali) say that Nkunda 
was "chased" into the DRC because Kigali decided to issue a 
warrant for his arrest in anticipation of an official GDRC 
demand for his extradition.  (Note:  Presidential Diplomatic 
Advisor Andre Kapanga told PolCouns August 30 that, as agreed 
during the August 24 Tripartite meetings in Kigali, the 
Congolese Minister of Justice has indeed already been asked 
to prepare an official extradition demand for both Nkunda and 
Colonel Jules Mutebusi, who also is in Rwanda (and who 
reportedly recently applied for asylum there).  End Note.) 
 
3. (C)  There is also currently unrest among some ex-RCD 
troops in Goma, largely revolving around the sensitive issue 
of refugee return. Serufuli said that one colonel in 
particular who has been trying to foment unrest had deserted 
his post, accompanied by about 200 troops, and had gone to 
Virunga Park where Nkunda is rumored to be.  However, 
Onusumba (who met specifically with Tutsi troops while in 
Goma), said that as of August 30, about half of these 
deserting troops had returned to their barracks.  The ethnic 
Tutsi troops claim that the government is trying to "stack" 
elections by pushing UNHCR to assist with the return of 
Congolese refugees from Tanzania (most of whom are ethnic 
Bemba) while refusing to assist in repatriating the Tutsi 
families who fled to Rwanda.  Many of these Tutsi refugees 
are voluntarily repatriating to North Kivu, but of course 
have no food or shelter.  Governor Serufuli told PolCouns he 
has begun a limited assistance program but cannot help the 
several hundred families who have recently arrived, as he 
does not have sufficient resources.  UNHCR officials in 
Kinshasa said that they are willing to consider providing 
limited assistance if asked officially to do so by the 
government in Kinshasa. 
 
4. (C) Comment:  This spike in security concerns is 
predictable in many ways.  Tensions regarding voter 
registration (now underway in both Kivus) have always run 
high, with attendant expectations of trouble, in one form or 
another.  The most prevalent concern always has been 
"interference" from Rwanda in the registration and electoral 
process.  Nkunda's presence in Congo is, however, a potential 
flashpoint, particularly given that he has ongoing grievances 
-- non-payment of military salaries in addition to the 
refugee issue -- which he can readily exploit to manipulate 
disgruntled troops. Even so, we don't expect a broad outbreak 
of fighting, a la Kanyabayonga, soon. 
MEECE