US embassy cable - 05MANILA4040

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 004040 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, EAP/IET, INR/EAP, INR/B 
NSC FOR GREEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, RP 
SUBJECT: END GAME FOR IMPEACHMENT EFFORT DRAWS NEAR AS 
HOUSE COMMITTEE REJECTS FINAL COMPLAINT 
 
REF: A. MANILA 4019 
 
     B. MANILA 3994 
     C. MANILA 3901 
     D. MANILA 3391 
     E. MANILA 3154 
 
Classified By: Acting Pol/C Joseph L. Novak for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The pro-Arroyo Majority in the House 
Justice Committee voted down the final impeachment complaint 
left standing against President Arroyo late August 31.  The 
Committee voted overwhelmingly to reject the complaint on the 
grounds that it lacked substance (the Committee had already 
rejected two other complaints, including one filed by the 
Opposition, on technical grounds).  The Committee is now 
working on its final report which it plans to present to a 
plenary session of the House on September 5.  The Opposition 
is trying to overturn the Committee's actions by collecting 
the requisite endorsements so that its complaint can earn a 
referral to the Senate.  It is also investigating legal 
avenues.  With few options left, the end game for the 
Opposition's impeachment effort seems in sight.  End Summary. 
 
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Majority Votes Down Last Complaint 
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2.  (U) Late August 31, the Justice Committee of the 
Philippine House of Representatives decisively rejected the 
third and final impeachment complaint against President 
Arroyo.  After having rejected two other impeachment 
complaints, including a comprehensive one filed by the 
Opposition, on technical grounds (refs a-b), the Committee 
proceeded to consider the last remaining complaint which had 
been filed by private citizen Oliver Lozano.  Voting 46 to 0, 
the Committee found that the complaint had followed 
appropriate procedures and was sufficient as a matter of 
format.  Voting 49 to 1 with 2 abstentions, the Committee 
then rejected the complaint for "lack of substance."  In 
comments made before the vote, pro-Arroyo Congressman Luis 
Villafuerte argued that the Lozano complaint was based solely 
on tapes made via wiretaps, which had been done illegally and 
were inadmissible in any House proceedings.  (Note:  The 
tapes contained a host of material, including conversations 
between President Arroyo and a then-electoral official in 
2004.  End Note.)  Other representatives argued that the 
Lozano complaint dealt with some matters that took place 
before Arroyo assumed office in 2001, which was not 
appropriate.  Due to their ongoing walkout, there were 
virtually no Opposition members in the Committee hearing room 
at the time of the votes. 
 
3.  (C) The Committee's hearings on the impeachment 
complaints are now over.  It is now scheduled to draw up a 
report in the next several days and present that report to 
the House meeting in plenary session late September 5.  The 
House will then decide whether to accept the Committee's 
findings or to overturn them in whole or in some other 
manner.  In a September 1 conversation with Acting Pol/C, 
Congressman Villafuerte predicted that the House would 
"decisively support" the Justice Committee's recommendations 
when it meets early next week.  He added that "the whole 
impeachment matter should be wrapped up before the House goes 
on recess" on September 8.  (Note:  The House and the Senate 
are on recess from September 9-18.  End Note.) 
 
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Opposition's Dwindling Options 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  (U) The Opposition is moving forward with two remaining 
options:  the first involves a bid to overturn the 
Committee's results and the second involves legal avenues. 
With a great sense of urgency, pro-impeachment lawmakers are 
frantically scrambling to try to gather the 79 or more 
endorsements needed (one-third of the House membership) to 
meet the criteria for a reference of the Opposition's 
comprehensive impeachment complaint to the Senate by next 
week's plenary (and thus overturn the Justice Committee's 
finding).  If the Opposition fails to reach this number, the 
Committee's ruling will stand and the impeachment proceedings 
in the House as a whole will effectively be over. 
 
5.  (C) With regard to the numbers game, anti-Arroyo 
Representative Edmund Reyes told the Committee on August 31 
that the Opposition now has about 73 endorsements.  He 
asserted that 23 of the members who made endorsements did not 
want to identify themselves at this time, preferring to 
remain anonymous until the Opposition obtains the 79 needed 
signatures.  If this is true, the Opposition would still need 
an additional six signatures by September 5 in order to 
request that its complaint be sent to the Senate.  Pro-Arroyo 
lawmakers contend that the Opposition has considerably less 
support and some in the Majority have made clear that they 
will fight over every name on the endorsement list if the 
Opposition claims that it has the requisite support.  In a 
September 1 conversation, Charlie Serapio, a pro-Opposition 
lawyer, told Acting Pol/C that he thought that the 
anti-Arroyo side was "coming very close" to the figure of 79 
endorsements, but he provided no other details. 
 
6.  (U) The Opposition is also moving forward with possible 
legal remedies.  A pro-Opposition private citizen filed a 
petition with the Supreme Court on August 31 requesting that 
a temporary restraining order be slapped on the impeachment 
proceedings.  The petition asserts that the Majority's action 
were unconstitutional and not in compliance with the House's 
own rules.  It is not clear when the Supreme Court will rule 
on this petition.  Another private citizen linked with the 
Opposition has also said that he plans to file a petition 
with the Supreme Court after the Justice Committee submits 
its report to the House on September 5. 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C) The end game for the Opposition's impeachment effort 
is quickly drawing near.  At this point, the Opposition 
either gets the needed 79 or more votes in the House plenary 
or it closes up shop in reference to impeachment (the 
Opposition is not really counting on the legal avenue). 
Observers have commented on the quick work that the Majority 
has made of the Opposition's impeachment effort.  Some 
commentators have speculated (probably with great accuracy) 
that the Majority is moving quickly at the behest of Arroyo 
who wants the deck clear of all impeachment charges ahead of 
her upcoming trip to the U.S. for UNGA and Saudi Arabia. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
JOHNSON