US embassy cable - 02AMMAN5912

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005912 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA A/S BURNS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2012 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, IS, IZ, JO, MEPP 
SUBJECT: DEFUSING JORDAN'S GROWING FEAR OF TRANSFER 
 
 
Classified By: Amb. Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D) 
 
1.  (C)  Over the past few weeks, many Jordanians of all 
political stripes have become deeply afraid that Israel -- 
and specifically PM Sharon personally -- will exploit a 
U.S. attack on Iraq to forcibly transfer large numbers of 
Palestinians from the West Bank to Jordan.  Senior 
officials, media personalities, academicians, and 
average Jordanians alike have raised -- on occasions 
too numerous to count -- this possibility with us. 
 
2.  (C)  FonMin Muasher raised his growing concern about 
transfer to the Ambassador recently, something he said he 
never imagined he could consider a realistic possibility 
even a few weeks ago.  He said he raised his concerns 
directly with the Israelis three weeks ago in the U.S. 
and received verbal assurances.  His alarm has risen 
precisely because he asked that the Israelis state these 
assurances publicly and they have not.  Professor Ibrihim 
Badran, Assistant President of Philadelphia University, 
told PolOff October 1 that transfer had become a dominant 
topic of discussion on campus: "People are asking how can 
the U.S. be totally insensitive to what hurts Jordan, 
endangers Jordan?  It is difficult to understand." 
Abdulkarim Abulhaija, Director-General of the GOJ's 
Department of Palestinian Affairs told Refcoord 
October 9 that "everyone believes this is a credible fear 
because we see the U.S. giving Israel the green light 
to do whatever it wants." 
 
3.  (C)  The Jordanian press has both fed and reflected 
these fears.  On September 29, Sa'ad Kan'an stated in an 
editorial in Al-Arab Al-Yawm "The transfer is coming 
. . . this, simply put, is Sharon's strategy."  On 
September 30, Uraib al-Rantawi, prominent columnist, 
wrote in Al-Dustour "for us in Jordan, the word 
"transfer" evokes the specter of the conspiracy that aims 
against the whole nation and places the danger (to 
Jordan) on an existential level."  And, on October 1, 
Rakan Al-Majali echoed the same fear that "Israel 
will exploit the strike against Iraq to carry out 
the transfer, which has long been a constant dream of 
Ariel Sharon."  Reflecting a fear held by some East 
Bank Jordanians, Abdullah Abu Romman, Editor of the 
East Bank Nationalist Al-Mira'a, told IO that the chaos 
of war with Iraq will open the way for Sharon to flood 
Jordan "once and for all" with Palestinians, bringing 
about the end of the traditional East Bank Hashemite 
order. 
 
4.  (C)  In our estimation, a scenario leading to 
mass expulsion seems remote at best, and we have sought 
to reassure our Jordanian interlocutors on this score. 
Nevertheless, whether grounded in logical analysis or 
simple emotion, the fear Jordanians are expressing to 
us is real.  For them, "transfer" would constitute the 
worst aspect of a host of calamities (including but 
not limited to Iraqi refugees coming from the east, 
a cut off of oil, economic dislocation, domestic unrest, 
WMD-tipped SCUDS shot down over Amman, and terrorist 
attacks) they imagine befalling the Kingdom in the 
wake of U.S. military operations against Saddam. 
Relief agency, UN and GOJ officials all note that no 
one in Jordan would be physically or financially 
able to deal with a new influx of Palestinians. 
 
5.  (C)  To a large degree, Jordanian fears about the 
consequences of a military conflict between the U.S. 
and Iraq stem from a profound sense of powerlessness. 
They believe they can do little to influence the 
decisions of Saddam Hussein, Ariel Sharon, or, for 
that matter, President Bush, and at the same time are 
more convinced than ever that Jordan, in the end, 
will suffer the most. 
 
6.  (C)  While it is impossible for the U.S. to address 
fully all aspects of Jordan's pre-war jitters, we 
believe there are steps the U.S. can take to dampen 
these fears on the issue of transfer.  We believe a 
private message to the Israelis strongly urging 
them to state clearly that they have no intention 
of expelling Palestinians to Jordan would be 
extremely helpful.  For our part, we should emphasize 
publicly, and on the record, our national interest 
in Jordan's stability and our rejection of actions 
by any party that could compromise that stability. 
 
7.  (C)   Prime Minister Sharon will be visiting 
Washington in the near future.  We hope that an 
appropriate opportunity can be found to raise 
this issue with him. 
GNEHM