US embassy cable - 90RIYADH6329

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 06329 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL: OADR 
TAGS:  PREL, MARR, MOPS, SA, US 
SUBJECT:  FAHD OUT OF THE CLOSET 
 
REF:  (A) RIYADH 6198; (B) RIYADH 6266 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: IN A NATIONWIDE SPEECH AT 1400 LOCAL 
TIME TODAY (1100 GMT, AUGUST 9) KING FAHD PUT SAUDI 
ARABIA FOUR SQUARE ON THE SIDE OF THOSE COUNTRIES 
CONDEMNING THE IRAQI INVASION AND CALLING FOR IRAQ TO 
WITHDRAW FROM KUWAIT IMMEDIATELY AND UNCONDITIONALLY. 
FAHD ALSO PUBLICLY THANKED THE "U.S., UK AND OTHER 
FRIENDLY COUNTRIES" WHICH ARE RESPONDING TO SAUDI 
ARABIA'S CALL FOR DEFENSIVE MILITARY ASSISTANCE.  FAHD'S 
SPEECH IS UNPRECEDENTED FOR ITS CANDOR AND 
STRAIGHTFORWARD PRAISE OF TWO WESTERN COUNTRIES.  IT 
SHOWS HOW MUCH THE CURRENT CRISIS HAS CHANGED SAUDI 
ARABIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST.  WE ALSO BELIEVE THE SPEECH 
WILL ENABLE FAHD TO MANAGE DOMESTIC REACTION TO THE 
INTRODUCTION OF U.S. TROOPS FOR SOME TIME, BUT NOT 
INDEFINITELY.  END SUMMARY 
 
2.  (U) THIS AFTERNOON'S NEWS BROADCAST ON SAUDI 
TELEVISION CARRIED A PERSONAL STATEMENT BY KING FAHD ON 
THE CURRENT CRISIS.  WEARING TINTED GLASSES AND CASTING 
HIS EYES DOWNWARD AT HIS PREPARED TET THROUGHOUT, FAHD 
DELIVERED HIS BRIEF (APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTE) SPEECH 
RAPIDLY, IN A SOMBER TONE OF VOICE. 
 
3.  (U) WE WILL RELY ON FBIS TO PROVIDE THE FULL TEXT OF 
FAHD'S REMARKS.  THE POINTS WE WISH TO HIGHLIGHT ARE: 
 
--    FAHD BEGAN BY REVIEWING THE EVENTS LEADING UP TO 
AUGUST 2, STRESSING ALL THE EFFORTS (BILATERAL CONTACTS, 
JEDDAH MEETING ETC.) WHICH SAUDI ARABIA UNDERTOOK FOR THE 
COMMON GOOD TO SETTLE THE DISPUTE BETWEEN IRAQ AND KUWAIT 
AND TO PREVENT AN OUTBREAK OF VIOLENCE; 
 
--    FAHD THEN TURNED TO THE IRAQI INVASION ITSELF.  HE 
CALLED IT THE "MOST VICIOUS" (ABSHAA) AGGRESSION OF 
MODERN ARAB HISTORY AND NOTED THAT IT HAD PRECIPITATED A 
CRISIS FOR THE WHOLE WORLD. 
 
--    NEXT, FAHD ENUMERATED THE CALLS BY THE UNSC, ARAB 
LEAGUE, GCC ETC. FOR IRAQI WITHDRAWAL FROM KUWAIT 
IMMEDIATELY AND UNCONDITIONALLY AND THE RESTORATION OF 
THE GOVERNMENT OF SHAYKH JABIR.  HE UNEQUIVOCALLY ADDED 
SAUDI ARABIA'S NAME TO THIS LIST. 
 
--    FAHD THEN PRAISED EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S CALL 
FOR AN EMERGENCY ARAB SUMMIT, SAYING THAT IT WOULD LEAD 
TO AN INCREASE IN ARAB SOLIDARITY. 
 
--    FINALLY, FAHD TURNED TO THE CRITICAL NEED TO 
PROTECT SAUDI ARABIA, ITS ECONOMY AND ALL THE 
ACHIEVEMENTS THAT IT HAS MADE IN RECENT YEARS.  HE NOTED 
THAT SAUDI ARABIA COULD NOT SUCCESSFULLY UNDERTAKE ITS 
DEFENSE BY ITSELF AND THEREFORE THE SAG HAD CALLED ON 
FRIENDLY COUNTRIES TO ASSIST IT. 
 
--    AT THIS POINT, FAHD THANKED THE "U.S., UK AND OTHER 
FRIENDLY COUNTRIES" WHICH HAD RESPONDED TO THE SAUDI 
REQUEST BY PROVIDING AIR AND GROUND FORCES FOR THE 
DEFENSE OF SAUDI ARABIA AND THE MAINTENANCE OF PEACE AND 
STABILITY FOR ALL THE STATES OF THE ARAB GULF REGION, 
YESTERDAY, TODAY AND TOMORROW -- GOD WILLING.  HOWEVER, 
HE STRESSED THAT SUCH SUPPORT WOULD BE TEMPORARY, AND 
WOULD END IMMEDIATELY--AS SOON AS THE KINGDOM REQUESTED. 
 
COMMENT: 
------- 
 
4.  (C) AS REFTELS POINTED OUT, SAUDI MEDIA COVERAGE OF 
THE CRISIS HAS GRADUALLY BEEN GROWING MORE CANDID AND 
COMPLETE.  NOW THE KING HAS GONE ON RECORD PERSONALLY 
WITH A STATEMENT LAYING OUT CLEARLY WHAT HAPPENED, WHO IS 
RESPONSIBLE (ALTHOUGH HE DIDN'T MENTION SADDAM BY NAME) 
AND WHAT THE SAUDI POSITION IS.  HE HAS ALSO CAST THE 
IRAQI INVASION AS A CRISIS FOR THE WHOLE WORLD (NOT JUST 
THE ARAB WORLD) AND MADE IT CLEAR TO THE SAUDI PUBLIC 
THAT IT IS A DIRECT THREAT TO SAUDI SECURITY. 
 
5.  (C) IN DOMESTIC POLITICAL TERMS, THE SPEECH WAS 
IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT PROVIDED A CLEAR, PUBLIC EXPLANATION 
FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF U.S. FORCES.  OUR RAPIDLY GROWING 
MILITARY PRESENCE HERE IS NO SECRET AND FAHD COULD ILL 
AFFORD TO WAIT TOO LONG BEFORE EXPLAINING SUCH A DRASTIC 
STEP TO HIS SUBJECTS.  NOW THAT HE HAS DONE SO AND 
EMPHASIZED THE TEMPORARY NATURE OF OUR SUPPORT, WE 
BELIEVE THAT THE DOMESTIC REACTION WILL BE MANAGEABLE FOR 
SOME TIME.  THIS WILL NOT LAST FOREVER, HOWEVER. 
 
6.  (C) ALTHOUGH SADDAM'S KUWAIT BASHING AMUSED MANY 
SAUDIS AT FIRST, FAHD'S SPEECH RELATING THE INVASION TO 
SAUDI ARABIA'S OWN SECURITY SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE PUBLIC 
ATTITUDES.  SADDAM IS HARDLY THE POPULAR FIGURE HERE THAT 
HE SEEMS TO BE IN SOME OTHER ARAB COUNTRIES.  SAUDI 
RELIGIOUS ELITES HAVE NO LOVE FOR SADDAM'S SECULAR, 
BAATHIST SOCIALIST IDEOLOGY. 
 
7.  (C) ON THE OTHER HAND, RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES ALSO 
FEAR WESTERN CULTURAL INROADS INTO SAUDI ARABIA.  THE 
LONGER LARGE NUMBERS OF WESTERN TROOPS ARE PRESENT IN 
SAUDI ARABIA THE GREATER THOSE FEARS WILL BECOME. 
 
8.  (C) IMPORTANTLY FOR U.S./SAUDI RELATIONS, FAHD HAS 
PUBLICLY THANKED THE U.S. FOR RESPONDING TO SAUDI 
ARABIA'S CALL FOR ASSISTANCE IN ITS DEFENSE.  WHILE NO 
ARAB WILL MISS THIS MESSAGE, IT IS ALSO CLEAR THAT FAHD'S 
STRESS ON THE TEMPORARY NATURE OF THE FOREIGN MILITARY 
PRESENCE HERE, THE DEFENSIVE POSTURE OF THAT PRESENCE, 
AND THE FACT THAT THE FRIENDLY FOREIGN FORCES WILL LEAVE 
IMMEDIATELY AT THE KINGDOM'S REQUEST WAS MADE TO ALLAY 
CONCERNS BY MANY SAUDIS OVER THE MOTIVES OF THE GROWING 
U.S. BUILD-UP IN THE KINGDOM. 
 
9.  (C) NONETHELESS, FAHD HAS NOW OPENLY TIED THE U.S. 
AND THE KINGDOM TOGETHER IN THE FACE OF THE IRAQI 
MILITARY THREAT.  SADDAM MAY HAVE REDRAWN THE MAP OF THE 
MIDDLE EAST, BUT HE DID NOT ANTICIPATE ALL THE 
CONSEQUENCES OF HIS ACTIONS.  NOT ALL THE CHANGES ARE 
GOING TO BE TO HIS LIKING BY ANY MEANS. 
 
10.  MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
 
 
FREEMAN