US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3147

UNCLAS  ALMATY 003147 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (MUDGE), EUR/RUS (NOLL), EUR/PGI 
(AYU), OES/IHA (COMELLA AND SINGER), OES/STC, NP/PTR 
(CAMERON), EB/TPP/ATP, EB/TPP/BTA AND INR/REA 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID FOR GH/RCS/EE/ROSENBERG 
USDA FAS FOR ITP FOR MACKE/THOMAS, CMP/DLP WETZEL 
FAS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS AND FSIS 
DEFENSE FOR USDP/CTR AWEBER 
HHS FOR WSTEIGER, PBUDASHEWITZ 
CDC FOR SBLOUNT, EMCCRAY 
BRUSSELS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS/FENANDEZ 
ANKARA FOR FAS ATTACHE HIGGISTON 
GENEVA FOR HEALTH ATTACHE 
TASHKENT FOR ESTH 
DTRA FOR CTB 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR, TBIO, ECON, RS, ETRD, PGOV, KZ, Avian Influenza, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE, AUGUST 26 
 
REF: (A) ALMATY 2842 
 
     (B) ALMATY 2904 
     (C) ALMATY 2957 
     (D) ALMATY 3085 
     (E) ALMATY 3091 
     (F) STATE 153802 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: This cable supplements Refs A-E and 
responds to the directive in paragraph 5 of Reft F.  No/no 
further reports of bird deaths, suspected AI, or human 
contraction of AI have been made since August 15.  GOK 
authorities appear optimistic that they have succeeded in 
containing the cases they have discovered.  In the course of 
delivering Ref F demarche, GOK officials provided Embassy 
officers with greater insight into their approach to the 
epidemic.  End Summary. 
 
National Preparedness Plan in Place 
----------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Dr. Asylbek Kozhumratov, the Chairman of the 
Veterinary Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture, told 
A/DCM and Econoff that he was "optimistic" about the short- 
term outlook.  He claimed that no cases of AI had been 
registered on small farms since July 27 and no cases of mass 
bird deaths had been reported since August 15.  He put the 
number of birds destroyed to prevent the spread of AI at 
13,430 nationwide. 
 
3. (SBU) When A/DCM referred to the need for national 
preparedness plans, Kozhumratov explained that the GOK had 
prepared one, and later provided the 15-page document to the 
Embassy.  Kozhumratov said that he felt the plan was good 
but still too general.  He hoped to get more specific 
information about the Republic of Korea's detailed plan to 
contain AI. (Note: We have informally contacted the ROK 
Embassy in Almaty to convey this request for information. 
End Note.) He was also concerned with vaccination - about 
the existence and effectiveness of vaccines, and how soon 
after vaccinating flocks can poultry and eggs be exported. 
 
4. (SBU) The existence of the August 2005 national 
preparedness plan demonstrates an organized GOK approach to 
the problem.  It addresses a very broad range of 
circumstances, but appears to lack specifics.  The plan 
identifies the autumn and winter as much more risky times 
for an outbreak, given bird migratory patterns and the 
likelihood of similar viruses being in circulation among 
humans and swine.  The plan describes in general terms the 
immediate and controlling actions to be taken as an outbreak 
occurs. 
 
5. (SBU) In its "conclusions" section, the plan dwells on 
possibilities for vaccination and drug therapy, and is 
ultimately pessimistic.  The plan's authors discount the 
idea of vaccinating flocks, at least once the virus is 
suspected, because of the rapid spread of the virus.  They 
are more optimistic about the use of Tamiflu to treat 
 
affected humans should there be suspected cases of human 
infection, but believe the possibility of a Tamiflu- 
resistant strain developing quickly to be high. The plan 
underscores the necessity of quickly determining the 
clinical value of two Russian drugs, "Arbidol" and 
"Deytiforin."  The plan also calls for the upgrade of 
facilities at the National Center for Monitoring, Reference, 
Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary Methodology so that 
the facility can handle the most virulent influenza strains. 
 
6. (SBU) Note:  The named Center is slated to receive CTR- 
funded laboratory upgrades under the CTR-funded Biological 
Weapons Prevention Program (BWPP.)  However, it is not one 
of the facilities that the U.S. and Kazakhstan agreed would 
be used for storage of the most dangerous pathogens (Level I 
and II in the Russian nomenclature).  In December 2004 
Kazakhstan agreed to consolidate especially dangerous 
pathogens at two different laboratories, one belonging to 
the Ministry of Health and the other to the Ministry of 
Education and Science. End note. 
 
Ministry Concerned About Autumn Migration 
----------------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Embassy officers also met with the chairman of the 
GOK's interagency coordinating committee for AI, First 
Deputy Minister of Emergency Situations Nurakhmet Bizhanov. 
Bizhanov summarized the GOK's actions to date: 
 
-Establishment of the coordinating committee under the 
Ministry of Emergency Situations with representatives of the 
Ministries of Agriculture, Health, Environmental Protection, 
Interior, Transportation and Communications, Finance 
(Customs Committee) and the KNB (Border Guards).  This 
structure is duplicated on the oblast level, and in many 
cases on the sub-oblast (rayon) level. 
 
-Public outreach: over 11,000 gatherings in agricultural 
communities, 183 training sessions, 145 TV spots, 128 radio 
spots, 178 newspaper articles and 18,000 leaflets 
distributed. 
 
-Sanitation and Prophylaxis: Quarantines and transportation 
bans in affected oblasts, over 13,000 birds culled from 
flocks, 289 sanitary/veterinary teams from the Ministries of 
Health and Agriculture at work, and surveillance of over 
13,000 lakes, ponds and rivers for signs of dead or diseased 
fowl. 
 
8. (SBU) Bizhanov also indicated that he met WHO officials 
immediately before meeting the Embassy officers.  He said 
that he had requested information from WHO on the approaches 
taken by other countries to address AI. 
 
9. (SBU) While acknowledging the seriousness of the problem, 
Bizhanov noted that the scale of Kazakhstan's outbreaks was 
much smaller than that of Russia's.  He echoed the 
Agriculture Ministry's concerns about the country's 
 
vulnerability to another outbreak during the autumn 
migration season, and about the risk of a mutation that 
would enable AI to infect swine, thus making transmission to 
humans easier. 
 
10. (U) Dushanbe Minimize considered. 
 
ASQUINO 
 
 
NNNN