US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV5324

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 005324 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: LIKUD PRIMARIES NOT A FAIT ACCOMPLI 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 5239 
 
Classified By: DCM Gene A. Cretz for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: The August 29 decision by a Likud Party 
internal "court" has kicked off a process that could result 
in early party primaries, but -- press reports 
notwithstanding -- does not compel them to be held.  The 
court decision validates a petition by supporters of Bibi 
Netanyahu demanding that the party Central Committee meet 
within 30 days to make a "decision" on the petitioners' 
specific call for primaries to be held within 60 days of the 
Central Committee meeting.  The 60-day period is specified by 
the petitioners, not by any Likud rule.  Likud leaders have 
decided to use the Committee's scheduled September 25-26 
session to address the issue, which means that any primaries 
would probably be held about November 25, allowing for the 
full month of Israeli holidays in October and the need for 
logistical and campaign preparations.  The court decision 
does not force the Central Committee to actually call 
primaries, but, under the Likud constitution, all Central 
Committee "decisions" must be by vote of its some 3,000 
members.  Were all that to happen, and were Netanyahu 
successful in securing the dissolution of the govenment, 
elections would likely take place 90 days later, about 
February 24. END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) Sharon supporter and Central Committee Chairman 
Tzachi Hanegbi had spent the past week trying to stave off 
the petition attempt, which was supported by the required 20 
percent of Central Committee members.  Sharon supporters say 
that they will appeal the court decision.  Netanyahu 
supporters are riding high on poll numbers showing Netanyahu 
defeating Sharon in a two-way race for the party leadership, 
and are hoping for dissolution of the Knesset in order to 
force early elections with, they hope, Netanyahu as the new 
head of Likud.  Observers say this is the first time in 
Israeli political history that a party has sought to oust its 
own sitting prime minister -- a full year before scheduled 
elections. 
 
3.  (C) Sharon will use the month until the Central Committee 
session both to rally support for his continued leadership 
and to prevent having primaries called at all.  He will try 
to demonstrate that his disengagement has been the right 
course for the country, show that he is not moving ahead on 
what the right considers further concessions to the 
Palestinians -- and the U.S. administration -- and, as he has 
already charged, paint Netanyahu as an unreliable, panicky 
leader who cannot be entrusted with Israel's future. 
 
4.  (C) Although a majority within the Central Committee has 
opposed disengagement, the decision on whether to hold 
primaries could go either way.  A current internal Central 
Committee poll shows Sharon and Netanyahu tied with 32 
percent each, with right winger Uzi Landau taking an 
additional 17 percent that he could send Bibi's way in a 
pinch.  Sharon nonetheless is a sitting prime minister, 
basking in international praise for his disengagement and 
supported by a majority of Israelis.  In addition, he will 
have just returned from an anticipated "victory lap" in New 
York.  Under his leadership, Likud has control of 40 Knesset 
seats, a full third of the body, and Sharon has survived 
challenges from the left and the right to pass a responsible 
budget and carry out disengagement.   No one on the political 
scene predicts that Likud will be able to retain 40 seats 
under anyone's leadership, even Sharon's, but the predicted 
numbers fall quickly in a Netanyahu leadership scenario.  In 
addition, Sharon benefits from the fact that, under Likud 
party rules, some 17 current Likud parliamentarians, Sharon 
opponents reportedly among them, are prohibited by internal 
party rules from seeking reelection.  By working against 
Sharon, they could cut short their terms by nearly a year. 
 
5.  (C) Coalition partner Labor will be watching carefully 
developments up to and including the September Central 
Committee vote.  If Sharon looks to be gaining strength, 
Labor, itself beset by the leadership aspirations of numerous 
contenders, could opt to remain in the coalition, even up to 
the regularly scheduled November 2006 national elections, in 
the hope of securing more disengagement-type action from 
Sharon.  If Netanyahu appears to be winning, or if Sharon 
appears to be stonewalling on further steps in the peace 
process, perhaps to gain right-wing Likud support, Labor 
could leave the coalition to separate itself from the Likud 
in time for anticipated early elections. 
 
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