US embassy cable - 05PARIS5835

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005835 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - GLOBAL ECONOMY - OIL PRICES 
EU ISSUES: TURKEY 
PARIS - TUESDAY, AUGUST 30, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
GLOBAL ECONOMY - OIL PRICES 
EU ISSUES: TURKEY 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
HURRICANE KATRINA'S TRACK AND DAMAGE TO THE LOUISIANA 
COASTLINE IS ONE OF TODAY'S LEAD STORIES, WITH KEYING RELATED 
STORIES ON OIL PRICES. THESE WERE PROMINENTLY DEVELOPED BY 
ECONOMIC LA TRIBUNE WHICH HEADLINES: "BOOMING OIL PRICES FORCE 
EUROPE TO REACT." IN ITS EDITORIAL TITLED "KATRINA AND ITS 
COLLATERAL DAMAGE" FRANCOIS-XAVIER PETRI SEES EUROPE AS CAUGHT 
IN THE MIDDLE OF "A HIGH RISK GAME" BETWEEN OIL PRODUCING 
COUNTRIES "UNABLE TO SATISFY DEMAND" AND RICH COUNTRIES LIKE 
CHINA AND THE U.S. WHOSE "STRONG ECONOMIES CAN SUPPORT RISING 
OIL PRICES." IN LE FIGARO NICOLAS BARRE COMPARES ENERGY 
STRATEGIES OF THE U.S. AND CHINA: "BOTH HAVE INCLUDED ENERGY 
IN THEIR OVERALL STRATEGIES." BUT EUROPE DOES NOT AND BARRE 
HOPES THIS "THIRD ENERGY CRISIS WILL SERVE AS A WAKE UP CALL 
TO EUROPE." IN LIBERATION EDITORIALIST GERARD DUPUY SIMILARLY 
HOPES THAT "THIS CRISIS WILL SERVE AS A KICK IN THE PANTS TO 
CONSUMERS WHO HAVE BECOME OVERLY DEPENDENT ON OIL." (SEE PART 
C) 
 
THE SECOND MAJOR FRONT PAGE STORY REVOLVES AROUND THE 
GOVERNMENT'S PUBLICATION OF A "BLACK LIST" OF BANNED AIRLINES, 
WHICH IS OVERWHELMINGLY BEING CRITICIZED BY MOST EXPERTS FOR 
BEING TOO CONSERVATIVE. CALLS FOR A EUROPEAN "BLACK LIST" ARE 
REITERATED AND THE U.S. SYSTEM OF AVIATION CONTROL IS GIVEN AS 
AN EXAMPLE. LE FIGARO PUBLISHES ITS OWN "BLACK LIST" OF 
INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES TO BE AVOIDED. 
 
PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S REMARKS YESTERDAY TO THE ASSEMBLED CORPS OF 
150 AMBASSADORS ARE REPORTED. LE FIGARO ANALYZES CHIRAC'S 
POSITION ON TURKEY'S MEMBERSHIP AND HIS PREVIOUS STANCE ON 
TURKEY AND CYPRUS. (SEE PART C) A SEPARATE ARTICLE INDICATES 
THAT FRANCE'S AMBASSADOR TO BAGHDAD SUGGESTED AFTER THE 
CONFERENCE THAT HE "MAY NOT BE RETURNING TO IRAQ" FOR SECURITY 
REASONS. GEORGES MALBRUNOT WRITES: "FRENCH AUTHORITIES ARE 
CONCERNED FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR AMBASSADOR TO BAGHDAD. HE 
MAY BE THE TARGET OF ATTACKS BY THE GUERRILLAS. THIS 
INFORMATION WAS RELAYED BY A WESTERN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE TO 
THE FRENCH." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
GLOBAL ECONOMY - OIL PRICES 
 
"KATRINA AND ITS COLLATERAL DAMAGES" 
FRANCOIS-XAVIER PETRI IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LA TRIBUNE (08/30): 
"TODAY'S OIL CRISIS IS A CRISIS TRIGGERED BY DEMAND. STRONG 
GROWTH ECONOMIES ARE PUMPING DRY THE RESERVES OF OIL PRODUCING 
COUNTRIES, WHICH CANNOT MEET THE DEMAND. THE FACT IS THAT IN 
CHINA AND IN THE U.S., GROWTH IS SUCH THAT THEIR ECONOMIES CAN 
ABSORB THE HIGH COST OF OIL. EUROPE CANNOT. EUROPE IS IN FACT 
PREPARING TO SUFFER THE COLLATERAL DAMAGE OF THE HIGH-RISK 
GAME OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND WHICH OPPOSES OIL PRODUCING 
COUNTRIES THAT CAN HARDLY MEET THE DEMANDS OF THOSE WHO 
CONSUME MORE AND MORE EVERYDAY." 
 
"OIL AND POWER" 
NICOLAS BARRE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/30): "THIS 
THIRD OIL CRISIS IS NOT AS SERIOUS AS PREVIOUS ONES. NOT ONLY 
HAVE WE LEARNED TO PRODUCE MORE OIL WITH THE RESOURCES WE 
HAVE, TECHNOLOGY FOR NEW ENERGIES IS PROGRESSING FASTER THAN 
PREDICTED. WHILE THESE FACTORS ARE REASSURING, THEY DO NOT 
TAKE AWAY FROM THE FUNDAMENTAL POWER PLAY BASED ON OIL. WE IN 
FACT ARE FACED WITH A CONVERGENCE OF ANALYSES BY THE U.S. AND 
CHINA, WITH BOTH COUNTRIES HAVING INCLUDED ENERGY SAFETY AS A 
MAJOR COMPONENT OF THEIR POWER STRATEGIES. WHILE IN THE U.S. 
THE MATTER IS IN THE HANDS OF VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY, IN CHINA 
THE RACE FOR ENERGY IS THE ECONOMIC COUNTERWEIGHT TO THE ARMS 
RACE, WITH CHINA READY TO MAKE MASSIVE INVESTMENTS. IN EUROPE 
ON THE OTHER HAND WE DO NOT SEE THE CHALLENGE WITH THE SAME 
FEELING OF URGENCY. IF THIS `THIRD OIL CRISIS' COULD WAKE UP 
EUROPE, WE COULD SAY THAT IT WOULD HAVE SERVED ITS PURPOSE." 
"THE SPANKING" 
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (08/30): "THIS 
SPRING'S OPTIMISM ABOUT A RETURN TO TAMER OIL PRICES IS GONE 
AND EVERYONE AGREES THAT HIGH OIL PRICES ARE HERE TO STAY. IN 
THE COMING YEARS, DEMAND MAY WELL BE GREATER THAN SUPPLY, AND 
PRICES COULD CONTINUE TO SKYROCKET. THE RENDEZVOUS WITH ENERGY 
SAVING MEASURES HAS LARGELY BEEN A STORY OF MISSED 
OPPORTUNITIES. THIS VIRTUE WILL BE ACHIEVED ONLY THROUGH A 
SERIES OF KICKS TO OUR COMFORTABLE POSTERIORS OF OIL-DEPENDENT 
CONSUMERS. 2005 MAY GO DOWN AS YEAR ONE OF THE `SPANKING.'" 
 
EU ISSUES: TURKEY 
 
"CHIRAC AWAITING A GESTURE FROM TURKEY ON CYPRUS" 
ALAIN BARLUET IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/30): "WITH A 
MONTH TO GO BEFORE THE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE EU AND TURKEY, 
CHIRAC GAVE A WARNING TO ANKARA ASKING IT TO `CLARIFY' ITS 
POSITION ON CYPRUS. ANKARA'S PREVIOUS UNILATERAL POSITION DID 
NOT SIT WELL WITH PARIS. AND PARIS EXPECTS A POLITICAL 
COMMITMENT FROM THE TURKS DEVOID OF ANY AMBIGUITY. THE 
OBJECTIVE REGARDING TURKEY IS ITS ULTIMATE EU MEMBERSHIP, EVEN 
IF THE TIME FRAME IS FAR IN THE FUTURE. CHIRAC DESCRIBED THE 
PROCESS AS A `LONG AND ARDUOUS ROAD WITH AN UNCERTAIN 
OUTCOME.' BUT NO ONE IN PARIS IS READY TO SAY WHAT DIRECTION 
THAT `LONG AND ARDUOUS ROAD' WILL BE TAKING: A PRIVILEGED 
RELATIONSHIP SEPARATE FROM A FORMAL EU MEMBERSHIP IS NOT 
EXCLUDED." STAPLETON