US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU1964

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001964 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/EX 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S EX-PRIME MINISTER DISCUSSES HIS OUSTER BY 
THE KING 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 1932 
 
Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION ROBERT BOGGS. REASONS: 1.5 (B an 
d D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY.  IN A MEETING ON OCTOBER 7 WITH THE 
AMBASSADOR, SHER BAHADUR DEUBA DESCRIBED THE CIRCUMSTANCES 
SURROUNDING HIS OCTOBER 4 DISMISSAL AS PRIME MINISTER BY KING 
GYANENDRA.  CLEARLY STUNG BY THE KING'S PUBLIC CRITICISM OF 
HIS COMPETENCE, DEUBA SAID THAT HE HAD REJECTED ON 
CONSTITUTIONAL GROUNDS THE KING'S REPEATED REQUESTS THAT HE 
RESIGN.  PORTRAYING HIMSELF AS THE HAPLESS VICTIM OF BAD 
ADVICE REGARDING THE FEASIBILITY OF NATIONAL ELECTIONS IN 
NOVEMBER, DEUBA INDICATED THAT HIS NEPALI CONGRESS 
(DEMOCRATIC) PARTY WOULD NOT JOIN A NEW GOVERNMENT APPOINTED 
BY THE KING, BUT WOULD NOT CARRY HIS GRIEVANCES WITH 
GYANENDRA TO THE STREETS.  SINCE THIS MEETING, DEUBA SEEMS TO 
BE HEWING TO THE COURSE RECOMMENDED BY THE AMBASSADOR OF 
DEDICATING HIMSELF TO STRENGTHENING HIS PARTY AND PREPARING 
HIMSELF TO CONTEST THE NEXT ELECTIONS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) IN RESPONSE TO A REQUEST BY THE AMBASSADOR FOR A 
MEETING WITH HIM, EX-PRIME MINISTER SHER BAHADUR DEUBA 
APPEARED AT THE AMBASSADOR'S RESIDENCE AND SPENT AN HOUR 
DESCRIBING THE CIRCUMSTANCES LEADING TO THE DISMISSAL OF HIS 
GOVERNMENT ON OCTOBER 4 BY KING GYANENDRA (REFTEL).  DEUBA 
WAS CLEARLY AGITATED AND DEFENSIVE.  THE KING, DEUBA 
EXPLAINED, WAS WORRIED ABOUT TALK OF A CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY 
THAT MIGHT REVISE CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS MAKING THE ROYAL 
NEPAL ARMY ACCOUNTABLE TO THE MONARCH.  HAVING DECIDED TO GET 
RID OF THE DEUBA GOVERNMENT, THE KING TWICE, ON OCTOBER 1 AND 
3, PRESSED THE PRIME MINISTER TO RESIGN.  DEUBA SAID HE HAD 
REFUSED TO DO SO "ON PRINCIPLE," ARGUING THAT THE KING HAD NO 
CONSTITUTIONAL AUTHORITY TO DISMISS A PRIME MINISTER WITHOUT 
THE SUPPORT OF THE PARLIAMENT. 
 
3. (C) REGARDING THE KING'S PUBLIC CHARGES THAT HE WAS 
"INCOMPETENT" TO HOLD CONSTITUTIONALLY MANDATED NATIONAL 
ELECTIONS ON TIME, THE EX-PRIME MINISTER INSISTED THAT THE 
KING HAD NO LEGITIMATE BASIS FOR SUCH A CHARGE.  IT WAS 
NEPAL'S SECURITY OFFICIALS WHO HAD ASSURED HIM INITIALLY, HE 
EXPLAINED, THAT ELECTIONS WOULD BE FEASIBLE IN MID-NOVEMBER 
DESPITE THE MAOIST INSURGENCY.  ONLY RECENTLY HAD THOSE SAME 
OFFICIALS INFORMED HIM THAT SUCH ELECTIONS WOULD BE 
IMPOSSIBLE.  IT WAS THE LEADERS OF THE OTHER LARGE PARTIES, 
FURTHERMORE, WHO PERSUADED HIM ON OCT 3 THAT HE SHOULD 
RECOMMEND TO THE KING THAT THE ELECTIONS BE POSTPONED. 
CHANGING CONDITIONS AND CHANGING COUNSEL HAD REQUIRED HIM TO 
CHANGE HIS POLICY.  DEUBA ATTRIBUTED GYANENDRA'S CRITICISM OF 
HIM TO THE KING'S PIQUE THAT HE WOULD NOT RESIGN. 
 
4. (C) DURING HIS MEETING WITH THE KING RECOMMENDING A 
POSTPONEMENT OF ELECTIONS, DEUBA SAID, HE HAD OFFERED TO FIRE 
CORRUPT MINISTERS IN HIS CABINET AND REPLACE THEM WITH 
TECHNOCRATS OR OTHER PERSONS RECOMMENDED BY THE KING. 
INSTEAD, THE KING HAD PRESSED DEUBA AGAIN TO RESIGN, 
PROMISING TO APPOINT DEUBA AS PRIME MINISTER AGAIN AFTER HIS 
RESIGNATION.  THE KING'S SUBSEQUENT DISMISSAL OF HIS 
GOVERNMENT PROVED, DEUBA ARGUED, THAT THE KING HARBORED OTHER 
MOTIVES ALL ALONG AND HAD ALREADY DECIDED TO ASSERT MORE 
DIRECT CONTROL.  PALACE INSIDERS TELL HIM, DEUBA SAID, THAT 
THE KING IS VERY AMBITIOUS.  DEUBA SUSPECTED THAT THE KING 
INTENDED TO APPOINT AND DISMISS SUCCESSIVE GOVERNMENTS ON 
SPURIOUS GROUNDS FOR 4-5 YEARS, THUS POSTPONING ELECTIONS AND 
THE RETURN OF POPULAR GOVERNMENT.  DEUBA SAID THAT IN THE 
PAST HE HAD WANTED TO BRING NEW FACES INTO HIS GOVERNMENT AND 
HAD ASKED THE KING FOR HELP IN GATHERING EVIDENCE OF 
CORRUPTION AMONG HIS MINISTERS.  RATHER THAN ASSIST HIM IN 
THIS, HOWEVER, THE KING CONTINUED TO MEET WITH CORRUPT 
MINISTERS.  AFTER ALL, DEUBA ALLEGED, THE KING HAD BEEN A 
CORRUPT BUSINESSMAN HIMSELF BEFORE HIS ACCESSION TO THE 
THRONE.  DEUBA SAID HE DID "NOT MIND" THE CURRENT HOUSE 
ARREST OF SEVERAL FORMER MINISTERS IN HIS GOVERNMENT ON 
SUSPICION OF CORRUPTION AND "WOULD BE RELIEVED" IF THEY 
ACTUALLY WERE INDICTED.  HE DID NOT SEEM TO TAKE THIS 
POSSIBILITY TOO SERIOUSLY, HOWEVER, POINTING OUT THAT MANY OF 
THE MEN UNDER SUSPICION HAVE CLOSE CONTACTS INSIDE THE PALACE. 
 
5. (C) THE AMBASSADOR RAISED THE QUESTION OF THE RANGE OF 
CONSULTATIONS THE KING HAD HAD WITH FOREIGN DIPLOMATS BEFORE 
DISSOLVING PARLIAMENT.  THE AMBASSADOR HAD BEEN TOLD BY A 
WELL-PLACED PALACE OFFICIAL THAT THE KING HAD CONVOKED THE US 
AND CHINESE AMBASSADORS ON OCTOBER 4, BUT NOT THE INDIAN. 
DEUBA SAID HE WAS SURE THAT THE PALACE HAD CONSULTED WITH THE 
INDIAN GOVERNMENT THROUGH TWO PERSONAL EMMISSARIES HE HAD 
SENT TO NEW DELHI (REPORTEDLY A FORMER DIRECTOR GENERAL OF 
POLICE, AND THE KING'S BUSINESS PARTNER AND CONFIDANT 
PRABAKAR RANA) AS WELL AS COMMUNICATING THROUGH TWO RETIRED 
INDIAN DIPLOMATS (FORMER FOREIGN SECRETARY RASGOTRA, AND 
FORMER AMBASSADOR TO NEPAL RAJAN) WHEN THE LATTER TWO VISITED 
KATHMANDU IN SEPTEMBER.  DEUBA CONTENDED THAT THE PRICE THE 
KING WAS PAYING FOR INDIAN SUPPORT FOR HIS ACTIONS WAS 
INCREASED GOI INFLUENCE IN NEPAL.  A RECENT, UNPRECEDENTED 
PROTEST DEMONSTRATION STAGED OUTSIDE THE PAKISTAN EMBASSY IN 
KATHMANDU BY NEPALI REPRESENTATIVES OF THE SHIV SENA AND THE 
PASHUPATINATH TEMPLE IN KATHMANDU WAS CLEARLY MOTIVATED FROM 
INDIA AND WAS PROOF OF GROWING INDIAN INFLUENCE HERE, DEUBA 
SAID.  (THE NEW PAKISTANI AMBASSADOR SUBSEQUENTLY TOLD US 
THAT THE DEMONSTRATION WAS A PROTEST AGAINST RECENT ATTACKS 
ON A HINDU TEMPLE IN GUJARAT.) 
 
6. (C) THE KING, LIKE THE MAOISTS, HAD BETRAYED HIM, DEUBA 
ASSERTED.  THE KING HAD NO LEGAL RIGHT TO SACK HIM, AND DEUBA 
HAD NO INTENTION OF PROPOSING NAMES FOR THE NEW CABINET OR OF 
ALLOWING HIS PARTY MEMBERS TO PARTICIPATE IN IT.  HIS 
PRINCIPAL GOAL WAS TO BE RE-ELECTED AS PRIME MINISTER.  THE 
AMBASSADOR ENCOURAGED DEUBA TO TAKE THE HIGH ROAD AND REACT 
POSITIVELY TO THE NEW POLITICAL SITUATION.  THE FORMER PRIME 
MINISTER SHOULD FOCUS HIS ENERGIES PRIMARILY ON STRENGTHENING 
THE ORGANIZATION OF HIS PARTY AND TAKING HIS PROGRAM TO THE 
PEOPLE.  THE AMBASSADOR REMINDED DEUBA OF HIS IMPORTANT 
ACHIEVEMENTS AS PRIME MINISTER.  HE HAD BEEN WELL RECEIVED IN 
WASHINGTON, HAD INCREASED INTERNATIONAL AWARENESS OF THE 
MAOIST THREAT, AND SECURED UNPRECEDENTED SECURITY ASSISTANCE. 
 AS PRIME MINISTER HE HAD ALSO PASSED LEGISLATION SUPPORTING 
POLICIES OF ANTI-CORRUPTION, WOMEN'S RIGHTS, AND 
ANTI-TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS.  DEUBA AGREED; HE WOULD 
CONCENTRATE ON REORGANIZING HIS PARTY AND WOULD NOT TAKE IT 
ONTO THE STREETS TO PROTEST THE KING'S ACTIONS.  HE EXPRESSED 
SOME CONCERN, HOWEVER, BY WHAT HE PERCEIVED AS INITIAL 
EFFORTS BY THE PALACE TO STIFLE FREE EXPRESSION.  WHETHER OR 
NOT HE SUCCEEDED IN HIS ATTEMPTS TO REGAIN THE PRIME 
MINISTERSHIP, HE ASSURED THE AMBASSADOR, HE WOULD REMAIN A 
TRUE FRIEND OF THE UNITED STATES. 
 
7. (C) COMMENT. DEUBA CLEARLY WAS BITTER ABOUT HIS UNEXPECTED 
SACKING BY THE KING, AND HIS SELF-SERVING ASSESSMENT OF THE 
MONARCH'S MOTIVES AND OBJECTIVES SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AT FACE 
VALUE.  DESPITE THIS, HOWEVER, HE APPARENTLY HAS TAKEN THE 
AMBASSADOR'S ADVICE AND MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY DIGNIFIED AND 
CONSTRUCTIVE PUBLIC STANCE.  THE EX-PRIME MINISTER MET WITH 
THE KING THE DAY AFTER HIS MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR. 
AFTER THE MEETING HE ANNOUNCED TO THE PRESS THAT HIS PARTY 
WOULD NOT JOIN ANY COUNCIL OF MINISTERS APPOINTED BY THE KING 
AND CONTINUED TO INSIST THAT THE OUSTER OF HIS GOVERNMENT WAS 
UNCONSTIUTIONAL. PARTY INSIDERS TELL US, HOWEVER, THAT DEUBA 
UNDERSTANDS THAT HE MUST BE REALISTIC IN REACTING TO THE NEW 
POLITICAL SITUATION AND HAS BEGUN TO TURN HIS ATTENTION TO 
ORGANIZATIONAL WORK WITHIN THE PARTY. 
MALINOWSKI