US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1348

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001348 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: MANY SOUTHERNERS ARE UNHAPPY ABOUT THE NATIONAL 
CENSUS 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: With barely three months until the 
scheduled national census, several southern Nigerian groups 
have threatened to boycott the exercise to protest the 
exclusion of information on religious affiliation and 
ethnicity from the census process. Many Southerners (mostly 
Christian) want these categories to be included in the data 
collection because they believe that Northerners 
(predominantly Moslem) have arrogated more than their fair 
share of political power and government patronage based on 
inflated population numbers to the detriment of the South. 
GON continues to stand firm on excluding these data from the 
process. However there now appears to be some GON waffling on 
the scheduling of the census. A Southern boycott of the 
census would erode the credibility of the exercise. End 
Summary. 
 
2. (U) On November 29 and 30, the GON Population Commission 
(NPC) is scheduled to conduct a long-awaited census to 
determine Nigeria's population.  The Commission said it was 
determined to conduct a census truly reflective of Nigerian 
population distribution. Commission Chairman Samu,ila Makama 
announced new guidelines that he said would effectively 
address the criticism generated by the last census. 
Specifically, he announced that information on ethnicity and 
religion, the inclusion of which was a source of friction 
during the previous census, would not be collected in the 
2005 process. He said such data constitutes a threat to peace 
and unity, as rival religious and ethnic groups compete for 
numerical superiority. &It is safer to ignore religion and 
ethnicity since there would be the temptation by each group 
to explore ways to have an edge over the other,8 Makama 
explained. 
 
3. (SBU) Rather than assuage feelings, the new approach has 
aggravated some Southern religious and ethnic groups. Several 
southern groups rejected the new guidelines and vowed not to 
participate in the exercise, arguing that a national census 
that omits data on ethnicity and religious affiliation will 
be meaningless. A true census, they insist, must reflect the 
multi-cultural nature of a country. 
 
4. (SBU) Ohaneze Ndigbo, the most influential of the pan-Igbo 
social-political groups, has threatened to lead Igbos out of 
the exercise unless the census forms include state of origin, 
language group, religious affiliation, ethnic group, gender, 
and age. Igbos consider themselves as Nigeria's primary 
entrepreneurs and traders.  In many areas Igbos claim to be 
the second or third largest ethnic group, although not 
indigenous to their communities.  Thus, Igbos feel a census 
that ignores ethnicity will significantly undercount them 
since so many Igbos live outside their traditional 
southeastern homeland.  They see this as an attempt to 
continue to short change them; political offices and 
government revenues are parceled out to regions and states, 
in large measure, based on their population. Afenifere, a 
similar group representing the Yoruba viewpoint, also warned 
that its members might boycott the census if demographic data 
are not included.  Yinka Odumakin, Afenifere,s General 
Secretary, told PolSpec the huge financial resources 
 
SIPDIS 
committed to the census would amount to a waste if vital 
issues like ethnicity and religion are not included. 
 
5. (U) Religious groups have also been speaking out.  In 
April, the Methodist Church of Nigeria issued a statement 
opposing the exclusion of religion and ethnicity from the 
census process.  Likewise, the Christian Association of 
Nigeria (CAN) threatened to boycott the census if religion 
and ethnicity were excluded.  CAN General Secretary Saidu 
Dogo told journalists in Lagos that both variables were vital 
to development and unity in any country, including Nigeria. 
 
6. (SBU) The new approach has also generated controversy in 
government circles.  On January 15, governors from the 
Southeastern zone issued a resolution criticizing the 
exclusion of the two variables. The governors vowed to 
mobilize against the exercise if the issues of ethnicity and 
religion were not addressed.  They argued that since many 
major national issues are adjudicated on the basis of 
ethnicity and religion, the census must include these 
factors. However, on August 13 these same Southeast governors 
did a volte-face, expressing their "total support" for the 
head count and advising citizens of the Southeast to 
participate in the exercise. (Comment: Pressure from the 
ruling PDP, to which all five governors belong, probably 
caused the gubernatorial change of heart. End comment.) 
 
7. (SBU) COMMENT: A population census in any representative 
democracy is always electrified.  In Nigeria it has a few 
added and highly charged dimensions.  Historically, Northern 
Nigeria has dominated national politics.  Part of the 
rationale justifying this arrangement was that the North had 
more people. An ancillary maxim was that Muslims outnumbered 
Christians.  Many Southerners and Christians dispute these 
claims.  They want to use the census to prove themselves 
right. In the Nigerian political culture, whichever group or 
region can claim numerical majority also has superior claim 
on political leadership. In a nutshell, that is what this 
census is about. That is why Nigeria has never had a 
crisis-free census.  Previous exercises have always been 
followed with criticisms by groups that felt &cheated.8 
This exercise, currently scheduled for November, is not 
likely to be different. But this time the Southerners believe 
they have the numbers to tip the balance in their favor. End 
comment. 
BROWNE