US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1508

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: JVP PONDERS 
PARTNERSHIP WITH PM 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1503 
 
Classified By: CHARGE' D'AFFAIRES JAMES F. ENTWISTLE.  REASON:  1.4 (B, 
D). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
1.  (C) Following the August 26 Supreme Court decision that 
presidential elections must be held by November 22 (Reftel), 
the nationalist Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is 
facing a fierce internal debate about whether to support Sri 
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate and current Prime 
Minister Mahinda Rajapakse or to run its own candidate.  As 
the price for its support, the JVP has asked the noncommittal 
PM to endorse JVP positions on 12 controversial points of 
policy --points like the peace process and privatization, on 
which the JVP differed from its former SLFP coalition partner 
during their short-lived alliance.  Rajapakse's dallying with 
the JVP may cost him votes from minority communities--as well 
as the full backing of incumbent President Chandrika 
Kumaratunga, a formidable and charismatic speaker whose full 
support on the campaign trail Rajapakse could well use.  As 
always, the thinking of the ever-affable but seldom specific 
PM is difficult to discern.  End summary. 
 
---------- 
JVP REDUX 
---------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna 
(JVP) is facing a fierce internal debate about whether to 
support current Prime Minister and Sri Lanka Freedom Party 
(SLFP) presidential candidate Mahinda Rajapakse or to field 
its own candidate in the upcoming polls.  (Note:  The 
Election Commissioner still has not announced a date for 
presidential elections.  According to the Supreme Court's 
August 26 ruling, however, the elections must take place 
between October 22 and November 22.  End note.)  JVP sources 
have told us that JVP patriarch and policy wonk Somawansa 
Amarasinghe is arguing against joining hands once more with 
the JVP's erstwhile coalition partner, while firebrand 
propagandist MP Wimal Weerawansa is pushing for his party to 
make common cause with Rajapakse, a populist politician with 
an agrarian southern Sinhalese voter base similar to the 
JVP's. 
 
3.  (C)  JVP Party Leader Amarasinghe, a policy purist, 
reportedly does not want a repeat of SLFP "back-pedaling" on 
such crucial points as the peace process and privatization, 
which led to the eventual break-up of the United People's 
Front Alliance in June.  By backing Rajapakse, Amarasinghe 
fears, the JVP's clear (some would say rigid) stand on these 
issues would be muddied and compromised by SLFP centrists. 
Instead, the JVP Leader wants his party to run its own 
candidate.  Weerawansa, on the other hand, believes the 
promise of JVP support will be enough to move Rajapakse (left 
on economic issues; right on the peace process) to advance 
the party's goals--and to keep the opposition United National 
Party out of office.  Weerawansa is supported in this bid by 
Rajapakse campaign manager and former Information Minister 
Mangala Samaraweera. 
 
4.  (U)  There was no evidence of internal discord at an 
August 29 press conference in Colombo, however, in which 
Weerawansa announced that the JVP would support Rajapakse, 
provided that he endorse JVP positions on 12 separate points, 
including the peace process, the principle of a unitary Sri 
Lanka, privatization, and a proposed World Bank plan to 
modify secondary education.  A document enumerating these 
points had been sent to the PM, Weerawansa said, adding that 
the JVP was awaiting his response before deciding on whether 
to run its own candidate. 
 
 
------------------------------ 
OTHER PARTIES' SUPPORT SOUGHT 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU) Aside from a generic invitation at a public rally 
down south to all "progressive forces," including the JVP, to 
support his candidacy, the PM has made no direct overtures to 
the JVP since the Supreme Court announcement.  Nor is he 
waiting for the JVP to make a decision before suing for the 
support of other parties.  On August 27 the PM's brother met 
separately with the leaders of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress 
(SLMC) and the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) to sound out 
prospects for their support, while a delegation from the 
Jathika Hela Urumayu (JHU), a right-wing Buddhist religious 
party that is currently part of the Opposition, was meeting 
the Prime Minister at COB August 29.  (Note:  The SLMC and 
CWC have not yet committed their support to either candidate. 
 In general, however, many observers are expecting the 
opposition United National Party to fare better with minority 
voters.  End note.) 
 
------------------------ 
CHANDRIKA HOLDING BACK? 
------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) Other than an anodyne assurance from the Presidential 
Secretariat that the upcoming polls will be free and fair, 
 
SIPDIS 
President Chandrika Kumaratunga has been uncharacteristically 
closed-mouthed since the August 26 Supreme Court decision. 
While her August 28 departure to China on a previously 
scheduled official visit may explain part of her silence, 
many observers are speculating that her own personal 
ambivalence toward the SLFP candidate--and reported suspicion 
that he may somehow have had a hand in the Supreme Court 
decision that ended her Presidential tenure a year earlier 
than she wished--is contributing to the comparative and 
atypical quiet from the President's House.  Rajapakse's 
prospects for success depend, in large degree, on whether the 
President, a charismatic public speaker and formidable 
campaigner, decides to offer her visible support and talents 
to him along the electoral trail, according to some SLFP 
partisans.  Nishantha Ranatunga, Executive Director of the 
state-owned Rupavahini Media Corporation and a long-time 
"Chandrika's man," told poloff on August 27 that such support 
from the President was not guaranteed.  Presidential disquiet 
about reports of a possible JVP-Rajapakse rapprochement may 
also add to strained intra-party relations, SLFP sources 
said, especially since the President blames the JVP for 
abandoning the coalition (and destroying her majority in 
Parliament) and scuttling her carefully negotiated agreement 
on tsunami aid with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE). 
 
-------- 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
7.  (C) An independent JVP presidential candidacy would split 
the left-leaning rural southern vote--thereby helping the 
opposition United National Party (UNP) candidacy of former 
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.  The JVP must calculate 
how far to push its "principled" stand on its trademark 
issues of nationalism/no compromise with the Tigers/no 
privatization--and how much it may get from Rajapakse in 
return--without tipping the balance toward the UNP.  Over the 
past year, the Prime Minister has successfully avoided taking 
controversial or potentially divisive public positions on the 
peace process or tsunami reconstruction, often telling VIP 
visitors that such matters were directly handled by President 
Kumaratunga (and he has even admitted in public that the 
President did not keep him abreast of peace process 
developments). While his public role over the past year may 
have been largely confined to ribbon cutting and tea 
drinking, Rajapakse is nonetheless a savvy operator, with a 
deft feel for the domestic political pulse and--a rarity in 
this corrosive environment--surprisingly few enemies.  With 
the JVP ultimatum now before him, it will be difficult for 
the ever-affable, noncommital Rajapakse to continue to dodge 
these thorny issues. 
 
ENTWISTLE