US embassy cable - 05MANAMA1256

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 001256 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BA, IZ 
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE CONCERNED ABOUT SECTARIAN SPILLOVER 
FROM IRAQ TO BAHRAIN 
 
Classified By: Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe.  Reason: 1.4 
 (b) (d) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) Crown Prince Salman expressed concern to the 
Ambassador August 28 that Iraq will not be able to meet its 
goal of improving security for some time.  While making clear 
that Bahrain fully supported the U.S. position in Iraq, he 
worried that a developing sectarian paradigm "is doomed to 
failure" and that the development of a sense of shared 
national interest in Iraq would only develop slowly over 
time, perhaps a generation.  Addressing the possible impact 
on Bahrain, he said Bahrain is on the "Sunni/Shia fault line" 
and cautioned that sectarian violence in Iraq could spill 
over into Bahrain.  Compared with earlier eras, Bahrain's 
communities are now less tolerant and complain more about 
each other.  Bahrain, he said, must "transcend exclusionary 
ideologies" and work to create national interests and 
incentives.  The CP welcomed Israel's withdrawal from Gaza 
and said he would be making public statements on the move. 
End Summary. 
 
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Constitution Designed to Unite, Protect Iraqis 
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2.  (C) The Ambassador explained in an August 28 meeting with 
Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa that the drafters of 
the Iraqi constitution had the dual aims of promoting 
national unity and protecting the rights of members of all of 
Iraq's communities.  Most issues had been resolved, although 
the article on de-Baathification was still open.  The 
drafting committee had agreed to defer the question of 
federalism until after elections for the new national 
assembly. 
 
3.  (C) The Crown Prince said Bahrain worried about Iranian 
influence in the Iraqi political system.  Jaafari is a good 
man who left Iran for Britain as soon as he could get a visa, 
but Hakim is very close to Iran, the CP asserted.  While 
making clear Bahrain fully supported the U.S. position in 
Iraq, he expressed concern that Iraq will not be able to meet 
its goal of improving security and that the country could be 
unstable for some time. 
 
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Sectarianism Doomed to Failure 
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4.  (C) The Ambassador responded that the Sunnis must lower 
their sights and accept that a strong central government 
dominated by Sunnis will not be reinstated.  The Shia and 
Kurds will inevitably play a much larger role.  Expressing 
discomfort with the continuing and growing sectarian focus in 
Iraq, the CP stated that the sectarian paradigm "is doomed to 
failure."  Those promoting sectarian concerns are unable to 
make policy shifts because they believe in absolute truths 
rather than interests.  Any concept of the national (vice 
community) interest will take time, maybe a generation. 
There must be a favorable status quo for a period of time to 
allow the "wounds to begin to heal."  The CP said he fears 
Iraq could disintegrate if things do not go well. 
 
5.  (C) The CP reiterated Bahrain's long-standing position 
that the U.S. must continue to play a significant role in 
Iraq.  Ideally, U.S. forces could take up positions inside 
bases and Iraqi security forces would be out patrolling the 
streets.  He warned, however, that following parliamentary 
elections, Iraq could demand that American forces leave the 
country and the GOI could become antagonistic toward U.S. 
policies. 
 
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Fears of Spillover from Iraq 
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6.  (C) Turning to Bahrain, Shaikh Salman said that the 
Kingdom will be better off the more people learn how to 
negotiate, compromise, and accept the idea of give and take. 
Citing Iraq but referring also to Bahrain, he said that those 
who boycotted elections for the Transitional National 
Assembly were now slowly entering the political system. 
Saying Bahrain is on the Sunni/Shia fault line, the CP 
asserted that the GOB is against any sectarian violence in 
Iraq and fears such violence could spill over into Bahrain. 
 
7.  (C) Compared with the more liberal (and secular) 1970's 
and earlier eras, relations between Bahrain's Sunni and Shia 
populations are strained, the CP stated, and you hear people 
complain about the other community.  This greater 
identification with sect is a direct result of what's 
happening in Iraq.  He continued that Bahrain must "transcend 
exclusionary ideologies" and create a national base of 
interests and incentives. 
 
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Gaza Withdrawal Encouraging 
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8.  (C) The CP said he was encouraged by Israel's withdrawal 
from Gaza and would be making public statements about the 
move. 
MONROE