US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1566

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001566 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL 
NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT: ARMENIA:  PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ON CONSTITUTION 
PROVES LONG ROAD AHEAD 
 
REF: (A) YEREVAN 1352 (B) YEREVAN 1290 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) On August 29, the Armenian National Assembly opened a 
highly-anticipated extraordinary session to debate the GOAM's 
proposed package of constitutional amendments (reftels).  The 
debate lacked the substantive discussion we (and European 
observers) hoped would prevail.  At times, the discussion 
degraded into a forum for the participating opposition 
members to criticize the Kocharian Administration and 
reprimand the National Assembly leadership for what they 
perceived as procedural irregularities in the proceedings. 
National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan, who departs 
August 30 for a Voluntary Study Program in the U.S., will 
likely move to wrap-up debate before his departure.  Despite 
opposition sniping, the current draft of amendments will 
likely pass this second reading (septel) and move to a 
referendum in November.  End Summary. 
 
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BIGGEST DAY IN MONTHS FOR THE PARLIAMENT 
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2. (C) On August 29, the Armenian National Assembly (NA) 
opened the highly-anticipated extraordinary session to debate 
the GOAM's proposed package of constitutional amendments (ref 
A).  Not since the public hearings on Nagorno-Karabakh 
earlier this year have Armenia's public, press and political 
elite focused so much attention on the National Assembly. 
The governing coalition (represented by Parliament Speaker 
Artur Baghdasaryan and Deputy Speakers Vahan Hovanisian and 
Tigran Torossian) led the second reading of the amendments 
package.  A total of 110 of the current 131 MPs participated 
in the session.  (Note:  As of 1830 local time, the National 
Assembly was still in session.  End Note.) 
 
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OPPOSITION SHOWS UP -- FOR THE CAMERAS OR FOR THE CONTENT? 
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3. (C) At times, the discussion degraded into a forum for 
attending opposition members to criticize the Kocharian 
Administration and reprimand the National Assembly leadership 
for what they perceived as procedural irregularities in the 
proceedings.  A handful of opposition leaders participated in 
the session.  Republic Party leader Aram Sarkissian (one of 
the most outspoken critics of the process) did not attend. 
Demirchian did not actually appear in Parliament, but is 
reportedly watching the proceedings from his office there. 
 
4. (C) Justice Bloc deputy Victor Dalakian attempted to 
de-rail the session altogether.  He claimed that 
irregularities in the punctuation of the draft amendments 
could call into question whether the deliberations were over 
whether to amend the previous constitution or adopt a totally 
new document (which could, according to his analysis, allow 
President Kocharian to run for a consecutive third term). 
Coalition representatives, including Deputy Speaker Tigran 
Torossian, were quick to dismiss Dalakian's accusations. 
Others, including NA Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan, chastised 
opposition MPs both publicly and in private for attempting to 
thwart dialogue and take advantage of the strong media 
presence to advance their anti-Kocharian agenda. 
 
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FAIT ACCOMPLI OR FAIR ATTEMPT? 
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5. (C) Presidential Senior Advisor Armen Harutounyan told us 
on the margins of the session that the final decision over 
the constitution had "already been made days ago" and 
suggested that the proceedings were little more than a 
formality.  He said that the President had dispatched him to 
the hearings in case there was a need for a speech supporting 
the amendments.  Orinats Yerkir MP Mher Shaghelian painted a 
different picture of the discussions, trying hard to convince 
the MPs (and media) present that the hearings were evidence 
of a fair, open dialogue on the amendments package. 
 
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COMMENTS:  IT'S TIME TO PLAY NICE 
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6. (C) While it is likely that the current draft of 
amendments will pass this second reading and move to a 
referendum in November, the August 29 hearings confirmed our 
concerns that the Armenian political elite -- both in the 
governing coalition and opposition -- is not yet giving this 
issue the mature discussion that it merits.  Despite the 
challenges, we believe strong USG support for a transparent 
process that preserves the intent of the Venice Commission 
revisions will aid efforts to bring the amendments to 
referendum, though public complacency and unrealistically 
high voting thresholds for the referendum remain a problem. 
During the August 29 session, both deputy speakers thanked 
Emboff for the USG's public calls for substantive discussion. 
 They were particularly enthusiastic about Secretary Rice's 
August 25 telephone call to President Kocharian and the 
Ambassador's August 27 op-ed. 
EVANS