US embassy cable - 05PARIS5797

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005797 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQI CONSTITUTION 
PARIS - MONDAY, AUGUST 29, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
IRAQI CONSTITUTION 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
DOMESTIC POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ISSUES DOMINATE TODAY'S FRONT 
PAGES AND MOST EDITORIALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEFT-OF- 
CENTER LIBERATION WHICH FRONTS: "IRAQ TRIPS BUSH." INSIDE, A 
THREE-PAGE REPORT IS ENTITLED: "TIRED OF THE WAR, PUBLIC 
OPINION REJECTS BUSH." IN HIS ARTICLE PASCAL RICHE EXPLAINS 
WHY A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS "DISAPPROVE OF PRESIDENT BUSH'S 
IRAQI POLICY" CONCLUDING THAT THE PRESIDENT IS FACING "A 
HISTORIC PRESIDENTIAL LACK OF POPULARITY." THE ARTICLE ALSO 
MENTIONS SENATOR CHUCK HAGEL'S CRITICISM OF THE WAR: "THE 
LONGER THE U.S. STAY IN IRAQ, THE MORE THE MIDDLE EAST IS 
DESTABILIZED." A SEPARATE ARTICLE AND EDITORIAL ARE DEVOTED TO 
THE IRAQI CONSTITUTION WHILE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE JOURNAL DU 
DIMANCHE COMMENTATOR GILLES DELAFON TITLES HIS ANALYSIS: "IRAQ 
ON THE BRINK OF BREAKING." (SEE PART C) 
 
AS PRESIDENT CHIRAC PREPARES TO MEET THE ASSEMBLED CORPS OF 
FRENCH AMBASSADORS THIS MORNING, LE FIGARO GIVES A HINT OF THE 
ISSUES HE WILL BE COVERING IN HIS REMARKS: "GIVING NEW 
MOMENTUM TO EUROPE, ACTING AGAINST THE THREATS TO COLLECTIVE 
SECURITY AND OPPOSING MULTILATERALISM TO THE EXCESSES OF 
GLOBALIZATION: THESE ARE THE THREE DIRECTIONS CHIRAC WILL GIVE 
TO HIS AMBASSADORS. CHIRAC WILL SPEAK IN FAVOR OF A STRONGER 
EUROPE, USEFUL TO THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP, AS HE 
RECALLS THE COMMUNITY OF VALUES BETWEEN FRANCE AND THE U.S. . 
CHIRAC IS AWAITED ON HIS POSITION ON THE GEOGRAPHICAL 
EXPANSION OF THE EU. ABOUT TURKEY IN PARTICULAR, HE IS 
EXPECTED TO DEFINE THE EU-25'S DETERMINATION TO ASK ANKARA TO 
CLARIFY ITS POSITION ON CYPRUS. HE WILL RECALL DEMOCRATIC 
VALUES IN FIGHTING AGAINST TERRORISM. AND INVITE IRAN BACK TO 
THE NEGOTIATING TABLE. SHORT OF WHICH FRANCE AND ITS PARTNERS 
WILL HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE BUT TO GO BEFORE THE UNSC. FRANCE'S 
EMISSARIES WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE REFORMS IN THE 
MIDDLE EAST." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAQI CONSTITUTION 
 
"FAILURES" 
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (08/29): "WITHOUT 
THE ALLIED ARMIES, NAMELY THE AMERICAN ARMY, NEVER WOULD THE 
IRAQIS HAVE BEEN SO CLOSE TO HAVING A CONSTITUTION SO WELL 
TAILORED TO THEIR MULTIPLE NEEDS. A LITTLE ISLAM, A LITTLE 
HUMAN RIGHTS. THIS INTRICATE DISTRIBUTION IS ALSO THE ONLY 
CHANCE FOR THE TEXT TO BE ADOPTED BY THE IRAQIS. THE SUNNIS, 
WHO HAVE VIOLENTLY REJECTED THE U.S. PRESENCE. COULD LEAD THE 
PROJECT TO FAIL. A PROJECT WHICH IS ALSO THE ONLY TRUMP CARD 
BUSH HAS IN HIS HAND TO BRING BACK HIS TROOPS. WITH `THE BOYS' 
IN MIND, BUSH PUSHED HARD FOR THE CONSTITUTION. BUT IF IT 
FAILS, PRESIDENT BUSH WILL GET THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT HE WANTED. 
WHILE TRYING TO GAIN TIME, HE COULD END UP HAVING LOST TIME. 
BECAUSE THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE COUNT DOWN HAS BEGUN IN THE 
MINDS OF THOSE SURROUNDING THE PRESIDENT. HIS PUBLIC OPINION 
IS AGAINST HIM, AND THE RUMORS OF TROOP DISENGAGEMENT ARE A 
RESULT OF THE PRESIDENT'S MOUNTING UNPOPULARITY. AS THE GAME 
PLAY BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT, IT SEEMS THE PRESIDENT HAS LESS 
AND LESS TIME. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE, THE PRO-SADDAM INSURGENTS 
POSSESS A DEADLY WEAPON: TO PROLONG THE SITUATION." 
 
"FOR THE IRAQIS, A CONSTITUTION, BUT PROBLEMS REMAIN" 
PIERRE PRIER IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/29): "IF ONE IS 
TO BELIEVE IRAQI PRESIDENT JALAL TALABANI, IRAQ HAS BEEN SAVED 
FROM THE RISKS OF A CIVIL WAR. BUT IF ONE LOOK CLOSELY AT THE 
CONSTITUTIONAL TEXT, NOTHING SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN PERMANENTLY 
RESOLVED. THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THE VARIOUS 
FACTIONS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TO GAIN TIME AND GIVE IN TO 
PRESSURES FROM WASHINGTON, WHICH IS EAGER TO SEE A POSITIVE 
OUTCOME AND BEGIN MILITARY DISENGAGEMENT PROCEEDINGS. BUT IN 
REALITY, THE SAME PROBLEMS APPEAR UNRESOLVED. IN BAGHDAD, THE 
U.S. AMBASSADOR SHOWED LESS ENTHUSIASM THAN PRESIDENT BUSH, 
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT A REJECTION BY THE SUNNIS ON OCTOBER 15 
WOULD CREATE `A PROBLEM.'" 
 
"A HIGH RISK CONSTITUTION" 
CHRISTIAN BOLTANSKI IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (08/29): "AT 
THE IRAQI PARLIAMENT, VICE-PRESIDENT HUSSEIN CHAHRISTANI 
REJOICED IN THE `GIFT' OFFERED TO `THE IRAQI PEOPLE.' BUT THE 
TEXT COULD WELL TURN OUT TO BE A POISONED GIFT. THE IRAQIS 
HAVE NEVER SPOKEN SO MUCH OF THE RISKS OF `A CIVIL WAR' SINCE 
THEY STARTED DISCUSSING THE CONSTITUTIONAL TEXT." 
 
"IRAQ ON THE BRINK OF BREAKING" 
GILLES DELAFON IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE JOURNAL DU DIMANCHE 
(08/29): "IT IS WASHINGTON'S WHOLE STRATEGY OF RECONCILIATION 
WHICH IS AT STAKE AND COULD FAIL. PRESIDENT BUSH'S WORRIES ARE 
SUCH THAT HE EVEN CALLED THE SHIITE LEADER EL-HAKIM ASKING FOR 
MORE FLEXIBILITY. THE DEMOCRATIC SOLUTION THAT WILL BE COMING 
OUT OF THE BALLOTS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GUARANTEE FOR 
PACIFYING IRAQ. AND THE NEW VICTIM OF IRAQ'S PARADOXES IS 
PRESIDENT BUSH HIMSELF: NOT ONLY HAS HE HAD TO COURT EL-HAKIM, 
IRAQ'S PRO-IRAN FIGURE, TO ALLOW MORE ROOM TO FORMER PRO- 
SADDAM PROPONENTS, HE IS ALSO BEING THREATENED BY AMERICAN 
EVANGELISTS WHO SAY THEY WILL WITHDRAW THEIR SUPPORT IF THE 
IRAQIS ADOPT A CONSTITUTION WHICH GIVES TOO MUCH IMPORTANCE TO 
ISLAM." STAPLETON