US embassy cable - 05MANILA3994

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003994 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/IET, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, INR/B, DS 
NSC FOR GREEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, ASEC, RP 
SUBJECT: IMPEACHMENT HEARINGS CONTINUE WITH KEY VOTES 
EXPECTED SOON 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3901 
 
     B. MANILA 3862 
     C. MANILA 3810 
     D. MANILA 3697 
     E. MANILA 3391 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Timothy Cipullo for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Impeachment hearings in the House Justice 
Committee continued on August 30.  The pro-Arroyo Majority 
made clear that it intends to vote against allowing the House 
to review the Opposition's amended impeachment complaint 
against President Arroyo.  The Opposition argues that its 
complaint should be fully aired.  It is not clear when key 
votes on the matter will be taken, but they are expected in 
the next day or so.  Leftists, joined by some mainstream 
Opposition elements, held a rally near Congress calling for 
Arroyo's impeachment on August 30.  About 4,000 people 
participated, but there were no reports of violence.  It 
appears that the only chance the Opposition has now to push 
forward with impeachment is to gain enough support for its 
complaint to earn a referral to the Senate, but that prospect 
seems unlikely.  End Summary. 
 
---------------- 
Debate Continues 
---------------- 
 
2.  (U) The House Justice Committee resumed its hearings on 
the impeachment complaints filed against President Arroyo on 
August 30.  As has been the case in earlier sessions, debate 
centered around the issue of whether the Committee should 
consider the amended complaint filed by Opposition lawmakers 
on July 25 or complaints filed earlier by private citizens 
(ref d).  Opposition lawmakers argued that its July 25 
complaint merely strengthened the substance of the original 
complaints and insisted that the Committee consider all of 
its evidence against the President.  Majority lawmakers 
argued that the amended complaint is a separate petition and, 
as such, is invalid because the law forbids filing additional 
complaints within a year of the original charges.  In 
speeches containing great detail on procedural matters, 
lawmakers also debated the validity of all the complaints on 
myriad technical grounds.  At about 4:40 PM local time, 
Committee Chairman Simeon Datumanong declared the debate over 
and called for a vote on initial procedural issues. 
Pandemonium ensued, with Opposition members loudly demanding 
to take the floor.  At this point, Datumanong gaveled the 
hearings closed for the day and Opposition members stormed 
out of the building.  Hearings are scheduled to resume on 
August 31, though there is an outside chance that the House 
will hold an unscheduled session later tonight. 
 
------------------- 
Votes Expected Soon 
------------------- 
 
3.  (U) Majority members of the Justice Committee are 
expected to push for votes on the issue of which complaint(s) 
to recognize whenever hearings resume.  Some Opposition 
members believe that if the Committee refuses to accept its 
amended complaint the impeachment effort cannot go forward. 
Other Opposition members argue, however, that they can 
proceed regardless of which complaint the Justice Committee 
recognizes (see ref a).  At the same time, some Majority 
lawmakers have suggested that none of the complaints may be 
valid because of technical deficiencies.  If the Committee 
were to refuse to recognize all three complaints, the 
impeachment hearings would essentially be over. 
 
---------------- 
Opposition Rally 
---------------- 
 
4. (U) The Opposition also sponsored a public rally on August 
30.  Opposition lawmakers attended a mass at a church near 
Congress in Quezon City, where Bishop Antonio Tobias (a 
left-leaning Catholic prelate) in his homily urged President 
Arroyo to "listen to the sentiments of the people."  Susan 
Roces, the widow of former presidential candidate Fernando 
Poe Jr., also attended the mass.  Afterward, she marched with 
pro-Opposition religious and civil society groups to the 
House of Representatives, where she observed the hearings 
from the gallery.  The hearings were briefly interrupted when 
several pro-Opposition spectators unfurled banners calling 
for the impeachment of President Arroyo.  This prompted the 
presiding officer to order the removal of the group from the 
session hall.  Outside of the House, meanwhile, around 4,000 
protesters held an anti-Arroyo rally.  According to emboff 
who observed the rally, most of the protesters belonged to 
leftist groups such as Bayan Muna, Gabriela, Anak Pawis, 
Migrante, etc.  A large contingent of police prevented the 
demonstrators from entering House grounds and there were no 
reports of violence as of 5:00 PM August 30. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (C) It appears that the only chance the Opposition has 
now to push forward with impeachment is to gain enough 
support for its complaint to earn a referral to the Senate. 
The Opposition's complaint seems to have anywhere from 45 to 
65 endorsers depending on what source is being cited, but 
that is not enough:  it needs 79 or more endorsements (or 
more than one-third of the total House membership).  At this 
point, unless the Opposition can pull off a surprise, it 
seems that there is little chance that its complaint is going 
anywhere.  If the Opposition loses in the Justice Committee, 
however, the turbulence will not end.  As with today's rally, 
the Opposition has made clear that it will continue its 
effort to oust Arroyo via demonstrations, press events, etc. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
JOHNSON