US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3596

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003596 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA-RUSSIA MILITARY 
EXERCISE, U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
 
1. Summary: Amid extensive coverage August 27-29 on 
local politics and the aftermath of a riot by Thai 
laborers in Kaohsiung, major Chinese-language Taipei 
dailies also provided moderate amounts of reporting on 
U.S.-Taiwan relations and the China-Russia joint 
military drills.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times," 
Taiwan's biggest daily, carried a news story on its 
page six August 27 that was topped with the headline: 
"Taiwan-U.S. military talks [i.e. the Monterey Talks] 
will be held in the wake of the Bush-Hu meeting."  Both 
the "Liberty Times" and centrist "China Times" August 
28 quoted TECRO Chief David Lee as saying the U.S. 
government would announce the appointment of a new AIT 
chairman right before President Chen Shui-bian transits 
San Francisco and Miami this September so that the new 
chairman could accompany Chen during his transits. 
Both newspapers also said former AIT Director Raymond 
Burghardt will be taking up the position.  The "Liberty 
Times," in addition, quoted Lee as saying that U.S.- 
Taiwan relations have stabilized since he took office. 
 
With regard to the China-Russia joint military 
exercises, the pro-unification "United Daily News" ran 
a news story on its page four August 29 with the 
headline: "Taiwan secretly dispatches military aircraft 
to monitor China-Russia military drills."  The sub- 
headline added: "A C-130 military cargo plane departed 
from [Taichung's] Chingchuankang military base for 
Okinawa last week, landed in the U.S. military base and 
intercepted electronic intelligence.  [Taiwan's] Air 
Force Headquarters declined to confirm [the report]." 
 
2. In terms of editorials and commentary, a "China 
Times" editorial commented on the China-Russia military 
exercises and said the drills have indeed marked a new 
milestone in terms of confidence building between the 
two nations.  Chinese Council for Advanced Policy 
Studies Secretary-General Andrew Yang noted in an op-ed 
piece in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" that the 
joint Sino-Russia military exercises are a concrete 
move for China and Russia to demonstrative their 
determination to protect their own interests.  An 
editorial in the limited-circulation, conservative, pro- 
unification, English-language "China Post," however, 
said China's saber-rattling proves that it is a threat 
and shows that it is eager to project its power beyond 
its borders.  An editorial in the limited-circulation, 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
strongly criticized Washington's decision to cancel the 
"Monterey Talks" with Taiwan; the newspaper later 
carried the news that the talks had merely been 
postponed.  Finally, an editorial in the limited- 
circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan 
News," urged the DPP government to carefully reevaluate 
the triangular relationship between Taipei, Washington 
and Beijing.  End summary. 
 
1. China-Russia Military Exercise 
 
A) "How Should Taiwan View the Joint Sino-Russia 
Military Exercise" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
[circulation: 400,000] editorialized (8/29): 
 
"Judged from the [current] situation, the joint Sino- 
Russia military exercises have indeed marked a new 
milestone in terms of the confidence building between 
the two nations.  The mutual trust between China and 
Russia is closely related to the rapidly changing 
geopolitical strategy of the two countries, and the 
weirder and more changing their neighboring environment 
becomes, the more easily it will push the two sides 
under pressure to move toward closer cooperation.  It 
is thus, without doubt, the biggest error in the 
strategic plan of the United States and Japan if China 
and Russia were pushed to an extreme. . 
 
"Given the current development, it is difficult to tell 
or estimate to which extent the strategic partnership 
between China and Russia will develop.  But if [we] 
reflect on the security alliance mechanism that the 
United States has been working eagerly to establish, 
[we will see that] it takes four or five decades for 
such a mechanism to develop into the state it is in 
now.  As for the relations between China and Russia, 
the two nations did not divest their past grudges until 
a decade ago.  What grounds [do we have] to believe 
that China and Russia will establish an equal mechanism 
in such a short period of time to counterbalance the 
U.S.-Japan security alliance? ." 
 
B) "The Intent and Capabilities of China-Russia Joint 
Military Exercises" 
 
Chinese Council for Advanced Policy Studies Secretary- 
General Andrew Yang noted in the mass-circulation 
"Apple Daily" [circulation 570,000] (8/29): 
 
". China and Russia have [clear] strategic and 
political intentions for spending so much effort and 
money on a joint military drill that appeared to be 
complicated and confusing to the outside world.  Even 
though the two nations have stressed repeatedly that 
their military exercises are not aimed at any 
[particular] threat or third nation, their statements, 
in the eyes of experts, merely shows that the more they 
try to cover up their intentions, the better-known they 
will become.  The greatest symbolic significance of the 
joint Sino-Russia military exercises is that the two 
nations are troubled and concerned about the current 
changes in the geopolitics of Asia; in particular, 
Russia [is concerned about] an expanded U.S. force deep 
in the backyard of Central Asia, and China is eying 
apprehensively the strengthened military alliance 
between Washington and Tokyo in Northeast Asia and the 
Taiwan Strait.  The increasingly enhanced energy 
cooperation between China and Russia and the security 
challenges they both face have also tied the future 
development and fundamental interests of the two more 
closely together.  Their joint military drills are a 
concrete move to demonstrative their determination to 
protect their own interests. ." 
 
C) "Beijing's Saber-rattling" 
 
An editorial of the conservative, pro-unification, 
English-language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] 
wrote (8/27): 
 
". But the show of force [by China and Russia] could be 
counterproductive.  On the one hand, the United States 
would try to strengthen its military alliance with 
Japan to maintain its military dominance in this part 
of the world.  On the other, Taiwan would be frightened 
enough to beef up its defense by buying more modern 
arms from the United States.  It goes without saying 
that Beijing's relations with Washington would be 
adversely affected, just on the eve of an official 
visit to the United States by Chinese President Hu 
Jintao, who will meet with President George W. Bush on 
Sept. 7 in the White House.  The least thing Beijing 
should do is to prove that it is a `threat' to the 
world. 
 
"But the saber-rattling gives fodder to China basher, 
in Washington and elsewhere, that mainland China is a 
threat, militarily and economically.  It shows that the 
country is eager to project its power beyond its 
borders. ." 
 
2. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "US Opts for Cents and Insensibility" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (8/26): 
 
"The news that Washington has canceled the highest 
level US-Taiwan defense talks that take place each year 
[in Monterey, California] is a reminder of the 
inability of the Bush administration to conduct 
sensible foreign policy, as well as brazen hypocrisy 
when it comes to questions of principle. 
 
"When Washington abandons pragmatism and ideology in 
its diplomatic affairs, then what is left? 
Unfortunately, the answer seems to be `damage control. 
.' 
 
"The problem with such reactive diplomacy is that it is 
shortsighted and sends the wrong message to 
Washington's allies, as well as its enemies - or 
`strategic competitors' as the politically correct call 
them. . 
 
"The tension between China and Taiwan is neither a 
minor trade dispute nor a diplomatic gaffe that can be 
papered over.  A conflict could involve the world's 
largest economies - the US, China and Japan - in a 
direct confrontation over vital strategic interests. 
 
"Yet the Bush administration once again demonstrates 
its lack of imagination as it sacrifices what is 
clearly in the US' interest - support for a democratic 
state on the periphery of its security frontier - just 
so that Bush can have a nice, quiet photo-op with a 
tyrant. . 
 
"The White House is making a grave mistake allowing 
itself to be influenced by Chinese President Hu 
Jintao's visit next month.  After all, the trip is an 
exercise in fluff, and the most substantial thing that 
is likely to come of it is hours of TV coverage of two 
men in suits sitting in chairs with half-smiles on 
their faces. . 
 
"Before it decides to sacrifice necessary security 
preparations, the US would do well to remember that 
everything is achieved in East Asia came at the price 
of blood. 
 
"The shattered husks of fighters and warships that 
litter the ocean floor from the Solomons to Okinawa - 
and rivers of blood from soldiers and civilians - mark 
the last time an ultra-nationalist, militant state have 
to be brought to heel in the region. 
 
"Does anyone want to see that happen again?" 
 
B) "U.S.-China Ties Face High Hurdles" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
[circulation: 20,000] commented in an editorial (8/29): 
 
". The drive by the Bush administration, under the 
forceful leadership of Rice, to build a `candid, 
constructive, and cooperative relationship' with the 
Chinese Communist Party-ruled PRC government have 
created huge challenge for Taiwan's Democratic 
Progressive Party administration. 
 
"In the light of this new trend, the DPP government 
should carefully reevaluate the triangular relationship 
between Taipei, Washington and Beijing and understand 
thoroughly how the new `Asian team' of the Bush 
administration perceives China. . 
 
"As far as Taiwan is concerned, the pressure is on the 
Chen administration to seriously design a grand 
strategy that combines elements of strengthening its 
relationship with Washington while at the same time, 
closely observing and flexibly responding to the U.S.- 
China rapprochement in a global context. ." 
 
PAAL