US embassy cable - 05WELLINGTON658

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000658 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, EAP/EP, INR/EAP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NZ 
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND FIRST: A PARTY OF THE OLD STILL MAY 
CHARM 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Katherine B. Hadda, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  As New Zealand gears up for September 17 
general elections, neither Labour nor National are likely to 
get enough votes to win a majority outright.  Of all New 
Zealand's small parties, only two, the New Zealand First 
party and the Green Party, have enough current support to win 
more than 5% of the vote.  Either could play the role of 
"kingmaker" by giving one of the two major parties enough 
Parliamentary seats to govern. 
While NZ First has not said which party it would prefer to 
back, it is widely assumed that National is the more likely 
partner.  When the parties shared rule in the 1990s their 
government fell apart, however. 
 
2.  (C/NOFORN) Led by the unpredictable and charismatic 
Winston Peters, New Zealand First paints itself as the party 
that will preserve New Zealand's traditional way of life. 
The party is populist, anti-immigration, and against special 
rights for minority groups, although in recent weeks it has 
toned down its rhetoric somewhat in response to flagging 
support in the polls.  The United States could face 
difficulties in dealing with any coalition government 
beholden to NZ First: the party wants to restrict foreign 
investment and supports New Zealand's anti-nuclear policy 
(though would back a referendum to change it).  Then again, 
Peters is pragmatic: he tends to back any policy that he sees 
as raising his public profile, and he was considered a steady 
hand as Finance Minister in the '90s. The party also favors a 
strong defense establishment.  End Summary. 
 
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Who Are NZ First? 
----------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) New Zealand First party leader Winston Peters may 
be dabbling in irony when he labels the major Labour and 
National Parties as the "two tired old parties" competing for 
the country,s September 17 elections.  Peters himself could 
be tagged as the election,s graybeard: At age 60, he is the 
second-oldest candidate for prime minister and is one of 
Parliament,s longest tenured members, serving 24 years. His 
party,s motto "placing New Zealand and New Zealanders first" 
has been marched out in slightly different forms for every 
campaign since Peters split from National and formed NZ First 
in 1993. 
 
4.  (C) The party,s core support rests with elderly voters, 
and its five policy priorities appeal to an older 
constituency that seeks personal security and is cheered by 
nostalgic references to a largely bygone New Zealand.  Down 
in the polls with three weeks to go (support has plummeted 
from about 12% to 5% in the last weeks), NZ First stands in 
familiar territory.  At this point in previous campaigns, 
Peters uncorked his personal charm and laid out his 
appealing, if shopworn, populist messages, proving on 
election night that pollsters had judged his party far too 
pessimistically.  His tireless, tried-and-true campaign 
methods may pull off another hurrah -- possibly not Peters, 
last -- making NZ First a potential kingmaker in a coalition 
with either Labour or, more likely, National. 
 
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Grey First policies 
------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) The public sees NZ First as a party for older New 
Zealanders.  In the 2002 election, 52 percent of NZ First 
voters were over 50.  In an August poll, its voting-age 
supporters were three times more likely to be over 55 (40.9 
percent) than under 24 (13.6 percent).  The party,s promises 
to battle crime, limit immigration, constrain privatized 
asset sells to foreign investors and manage race relations 
resonate most strongly with seniors.  This year, it has added 
a senior-specific campaign pledge: to raise the rate of 
social welfare support for the elderly.  As a result, NZ 
First has won the not-insignificant support of Grey Power, a 
100,000-member political group for age 50-plus New Zealanders 
that is a key component of NZ First's campaign success. 
 
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Policies as protection for NZ identity 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) NZ First policies generally seek to protect and 
preserve a distinct New Zealand identity.  Foremost among 
them, NZ First pitches an anti-immigrant message, with Peters 
often saying that New Zealanders have "the right to stop 
being swamped by a flood of immigrants."  Peters recently 
said that New Zealand is replacing its first-world emigrants 
of the postwar period with third-world workers and 
threatening the Kiwi way of life.  NZ First calls for a 
drastic reduction in immigrants, especially refugees.  Peters 
often has used the mechanism of parliamentary privilege to 
name immigrants he thinks pose threats to national security, 
without supporting evidence or disclosure of his sources. 
 
7. (SBU) Peters, who inherited Maori lineage from his father 
and once was ticketed as the likeliest prospect to become the 
country,s first Maori prime minister, is labeled by some 
critics as being Maori in name only. He first came to 
national prominence in the mid-1980s by uncovering scandal in 
the government,s Maori loan programs.  He has since attacked 
what he calls the "bro-racracy" of Maori that seeks large 
government payouts to settle treaty claims, and he has also 
criticized some  tribe Maori leaders as nepotistic and 
corrupt. However, ever since National Party leader Don 
Brash's January 2004 Orewa speech stole much of the thunder 
on this issue, NZ First has struggled to further distinguish 
its race policy.  For example, the party still promotes Maori 
language and culture as a vital part of New Zealand,s 
national identity. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Party,s strengths, vulnerabilities are Peters 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Arguably the most charismatic figure in Parliament, 
Peters propels the party,s populist policy.  Coupled with 
his long experience in Parliament, Peters is well positioned 
to deliver polling gains in the remaining weeks of the 
election campaign.  Four weeks out from the 2002 elections, 
NZ First polled between 4 and 5 percent.  Largely on Peters, 
charisma, it received 10.4 percent of the party vote.  A 
similar performance remains possible this campaign, 
especially as older voters appear to be disengaged from the 
two major parties and other minor parties. 
 
9. (C) Peters, charisma, the party,s populist platform and 
its support among the elderly notwithstanding, NZ First,s 
message and its leader have worn thin on many New Zealanders 
who may be sympathetic to its views but not convinced of its 
effectiveness.  Other parties, especially National and ACT, 
have cannibalized the party,s core policy messages 
(anti-corruption, anti-immigration and race relations), 
leaving the party with little new or different on offer. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Anti-First: issues of coalition government 
------------------------------------------ 
 
10. (C) As in the last three elections, Peters is promoting 
NZ First as a potential coalition "king-" or "queen-maker," 
suggesting that he could help Labour or National reach a 
Parliamentary majority.   However, Labour leader Helen Clark 
and National,s Brash have both distanced themselves from 
Peters, who has said he would not commit to a coalition plan 
before the election.  National likely worries voters will 
remember how after the 1996 election, it took 10 weeks for 
National and NZ First to form a coalition, which then 
essentially fell apart in 1998.  Labour,s Clark stands 
further apart from Peters, political philosophy and, since 
the Green and Progressive Parties already have agreed to back 
a Labour coalition, needs him less. Given Peters, reputation 
as a political lone wolf, some commentators have suggested a 
more casual collaboration with NZ First would better serve 
Labour or National.  This might the form of an agreement by 
NZ First to work with a minority government on an 
issue-by-issue basis, and this arrangement, some insiders 
believe, would be Peters, preference. 
 
11. (C) Another factor complicating NZ First,s position is 
that NZ First,s rank-and-file increasingly are signaling 
that Labour would be their first choice for a coalition 
partner.  As a conservative in centrist clothing, Peters 
feels more at home with National, his former party, and 
without Peters, NZ First would likely go extinct. 
--------------------------------------------- - 
New Zealand "First": implications for the U.S. 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
12. (C) Consistent with its overall strategy to protect the 
national identity, NZ First supports New Zealand,s 
anti-nuclear policy.  However, the Party's MPs have told us 
they could support a public referendum concerning the policy. 
 NZ First remains skeptical of free trade agreements, 
especially arrangements with developing nations.  It believes 
deals with "low-wage economies," such as the one being 
negotiated with China, threaten the New Zealand way of life, 
although it favors increasing New Zealand,s association with 
the South Pacific. 
 
13. (C/NOFORN) On the whole, a coalition government obliged 
to draw on NZ First policies would be neutral to the United 
States.  However, some policies, notably Peters, call for 
expanded intelligence sharing within Parliament and his 
party,s policy to cap foreign ownership of key 
infrastructure to 24.9 percent, might be a problem for us. It 
is rumored that National might tap Peters as Foreign Minister 
in a coalition government, which would make this prospect 
less than academic.  Then again, Peters is basically 
pragmatic.  We believe he would support any policy that makes 
him look good. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Winston First: leader as person and party 
----------------------------------------- 
 
14. (SBU) Winston Raymond Peters, 60, studied history, 
politics and law at Auckland University before working as a 
teacher and a lawyer.  In 1978, age 33, he entered Parliament 
as a National Party member.  After losing in 1981, he 
returned to Parliament in 1984 by winning in Tauranga, a seat 
that he continues to hold.  He resigned from the National 
Party in 1993 over policy differences, especially those 
involving privatization of state infrastructure.  He founded 
NZ First that same year, just before the general election. 
 
15. (SBU) In the 1996 election, NZ First captured 17 seats, 
six of which were electorate seats (including five dedicated 
to Maori), demonstrating it had a solid party foundation.  It 
joined in coalition with National, making Peters deputy prime 
minister and Treasurer.  However, old tensions reappeared 
between Peters and National leadership, resulting in Peters, 
sacking from cabinet.  A collapse in NZ First followed, with 
some members of Parliament breaking in favor of National.  In 
the party,s current incarnation, Peters has firmly 
established himself in opposition, where some say he performs 
best. 
 
16. (C) Although Peters exercises autocratic control over the 
party, there are signs he may be losing touch with his home 
district in Tauranga.  A recent poll of the Tauranga 
electorate indicates their preferred party is National, with 
26 percent; Labour, 18 percent; and, NZ First, 10 percent. 
However, extrapolating party vote to electorate seat outcome 
is tenuous.  In the 2002 election, Labour had 32 percent of 
the party vote while National and NZ First posted 22 percent 
each.  Peters decisively won the seat with 52 percent of the 
electorate vote.  The next closest contender, a prominent 
sitting Labour MP (Speaker Margaret Wilson), took 21 percent. 
Burnett