US embassy cable - 05HELSINKI930

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000930 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/ERA AND EUR/NB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EU, PGOV, PHUM, PREL, FI, EUN 
SUBJECT: FINLAND: PLANS FOR SEPTEMBER 1-2 GYMNICH MEETING 
 
REF: STATE 153187 
 
1.  Summary: 
 
(U)  The GoF plans to concentrate on three issues at the 
Gymnich:  EU enlargement, the Middle-East Peace Process, and 
the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT).  Finland will strongly support 
the start of Turkish accession talks on Oct. 3, and EU 
Commissioner for Enlargement Ollie Rehn (a Finn) will address 
the Gymnich on the second day.  The GoF is pleasantly 
surprised at how smoothly the Gaza withdrawal has gone. 
However, there is concern about Israeli plans for the West 
Bank and Jerusalem, and Finland is hopeful the U.S. will 
continue to exercise a moderating influence on Tel Aviv. 
Finland hopes to use the Gymnich to raise the awareness level 
about the ATT, although no specific goals had been set. 
Finally, Finland believes the Croats must fully carry through 
with Gotovina's arrest and transfer to The Hague.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  (U)  Poloffs met August 25 with MFA Director for EU 
Affairs Jarno Syrjala to deliver reftel demarche.  Syrjala 
said that Finland has not yet received the Gymnich agenda 
from the UK, but that Finland plans to concentrate on EU 
enlargement, the Middle-east Peace Process, and the Arms 
Trade Treaty (ATT) at the meeting. 
 
Enlargement and Turkey 
---------------------- 
3.  (U)  Syrjala reiterated the GoF's strong support for the 
Oct. 3 start of accession talks with Turkey.  He added that 
the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Ollie Rehn- a Finn, and 
a staunch advocate of the Oct. 3 start -would address the 
group on September 2.  He did note that some countries might 
call for some form of an "EU reaction" to recent Turkish 
statements on Cyprus, but said that, in Finland's view, 
Turkey's comments were mere rhetoric and should not disrupt 
the process.  In any case, he said Finland would seek to 
press for no EU reaction--  or in a worst case, a very 
moderate statement.  Syrjala further noted that there was 
some uncertainty over the Turkish question, particularly with 
the possible election of Germany's Angela Merkel looming in 
September.  He said that he did not believe a decision would 
be made on the talks at the Gymnich, and that this would 
likely be postponed until later in September, possibly during 
an ad hoc ministerial meeting in New York during the UNGA 
opening. 
 
Middle-East Peace/Gaza 
---------------------- 
4.  (U)  Syrjala said that the GoF is pleasantly surprised by 
the relatively smooth operation in Gaza and the lack of 
accompanying violence.  He said that Finland believes it is 
now time to "build a bridge to the future" and quickly return 
to the process set out in the roadmap.  He said that there is 
some concern in Helsinki about possible Israeli plans for the 
West bank and Jerusalem post-Gaza;  if Gaza came at the price 
of a tightening of Israel's grip on the West Bank, the 
situation could deteriorate rapidly.  Syrjala said that he 
believes many Palestinians are fearful that this was the 
case, and that debate over the efficacy of a third Intifadah 
centered on this.  He also said the U.S. needs to use its 
influence with Israel to moderate potentially unhelpful plans 
with the West Bank and Jerusalem.  In this regard, he said 
that the Secretary's recent remarks had been very useful. 
 
Arms Trade Treaty 
----------------- 
5.  (U)  Syrjala said that support for a mechanism to 
regulate small arms proliferation had been part of Finnish 
policy for some time.  UK Foreign Minister Straw has now 
"personally picked this up," and the UK will promote the ATT 
at the Gymnich meeting.  Syrjala linked the ATT to the 
Helsinki Process, and said that the Netherlands, Germany, and 
Denmark had all shown interest in moving ahead with the 
still-nascent project.  He said that Finland will attempt to 
raise awareness of the issue at the Gymnich meeting, but that 
there were no specific goals set for the September meeting, 
although the issue might be addressed later in New York 
during the UNGA. 
 
Western Balkans 
--------------- 
6.  (U)  On Kosovo, Syrjala said that the Comprehensive 
Review was a work in progress, and that it was premature to 
draw any conclusions.  However, he also said that Eide 
recently had put a negative spin on the review process, and 
that the final result may not be as positive as Serbia and 
Kosovo once believed.  He opined that Eide's posture had a 
positive effect in the form of increased Serbian and Kosovar 
compliance.  Syrjala confirmed that the UNSYG had been in 
touch with former Finnish President Ahtisaari about taking 
the UN lead on Kosovo, but that this was at a tentative and 
early stage.  He declined to comment on whether Ahtisaari 
would eventually do so. 
7.  (U)  On Croatia, Finland believes Zagreb had to fully 
cooperate and comply as regards the arrest and transfer to 
The Hague of Gotovina.  Some countries wished to be less 
strict with the Croats, but the GoF believes that any softer 
line would establish a negative precedent and jeopardize 
Croatian cooperation in future cases.  He said that the EU 
Task Force might meet in New York to discuss the situation 
more fully later in September. 
 
Iraq/Iran 
--------- 
8.  (U)  Syrjala said that he did not believe either Iraq or 
Iran would be substantively addressed at the Gymnich meeting 
in early September. 
 
MACK