US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3571

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003571 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: POLITICAL JUJITSU: CAN PFP LEVERAGE KMT IMAGE FOR 
NOMINATIONS? 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 3376 
     B. TAIPEI 3450 
     C. TAIPEI 3496 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). 
 
1. (U) Summary: Ma Ying-jeou immediately reached out after 
his August 19 inauguration as KMT Chairman to urge PFP 
Chairman James Soong and other former KMT members to come 
back to the party.  At Ma's insistence the KMT removed the 
party rules barring disciplined or expelled members from 
serving as party Chairman or from sitting on the Central 
Standing Committee; Ma has declared "Pan-Blue unity" 
essential to victory in this year's city/county elections and 
the 2008 presidential race, and he promised former KMT 
members a warm homecoming and a respected place in the party. 
 PFP leaders dismissed Ma's gestures as empty talk, arguing 
that if the KMT sincerely wanted Pan-Blue cooperation, it 
would agree to let PFP candidates represent the Pan-Blues in 
five key year-end elections.  Newly appointed KMT 
Secretary-General Chan Chun-po recently met with PFP leaders 
 
SIPDIS 
to begin the discussion of election cooperation 
possibilities.  PFP representatives professed optimism, but 
the devil will be in the details, which have yet to be ironed 
out.  PFP leaders know they have little leverage, and hope an 
image-conscious KMT will choose to cooperate with its much 
weaker ally.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) During his campaign for KMT Chair, Ma Ying-jeou called 
for the KMT to work closely with its erstwhile Pan-Blue 
coalition partner, the People First Party (PFP).  Ma also 
publicly welcomed PFP Chairman James Soong and other former 
KMT members back into the fold, as part of his "Old Comrades 
Return Home, New Comrades Join In" policy.  Leading up to the 
KMT's 17th National Congress, Ma proposed striking the KMT 
rule banning disciplined or expelled KMT members from running 
for the Central Standing Committee or for KMT Chair.  This 
was widely interpreted as a peace offering to Soong, who was 
ousted from the KMT by Lien Chan, after Soong chose to run as 
an independent against Lien in the 2000 presidential race. 
The rule change passed the KMT National Congress on August 
19.  During his Chairman acceptance speech, Ma promised to 
gradually integrate the PFP back into the KMT, beginning with 
Pan-Blue cooperation on policy matters, legislation, and 
elections.  Ma declared his first order of business as 
Chairman was to assure a KMT victory in this December's city 
mayor and county magistrate elections, which, he 
acknowledged, would not be possible without PFP cooperation. 
 
3. (C) On August 16, PFP Deputy Director of Public and 
Cultural Affairs Liao Wen-chang told AIT that he doubted Ma's 
sincerity, because, despite Ma's repeated calls to 
reintegrate the two parties, no one from the KMT had thus far 
contacted the PFP to discuss a process to do so.  No one, he 
said, had even approached the PFP to discuss Pan-Blue 
cooperation in advance of this December's city mayor and 
county magistrate elections.  Liao alleged that Ma's calls 
for reunification are actually a cynical attempt to further 
marginalize the PFP by convincing Pan-Blue voters that the 
PFP is responsible for fracturing the Pan-Blue unity that is 
so critical to success not only this December, but also in 
2008.  Rhetorically, Liao asked why the KMT didn't offer to 
unify with the PFP in 2000, when the PFP was strong.  Now, 
when the PFP is weak and getting weaker, Liao said many PFP 
members are insulted by, and not appreciative of, Ma's offer 
to welcome them back into the KMT.  Liao said Ma must first 
demonstrate his good faith, by meeting directly with the PFP 
leadership to discuss plans for inter-party cooperation. 
That plan must yield tangible benefits for the PFP; namely, 
the KMT must be willing to yield five or six key elections in 
December to PFP candidates.  If the KMT is unwilling to do 
that, Liao said, it would be "all out war," since the PFP 
would be fighting for its very survival. 
 
4. (C) On August 18, PFP LY member Hwang Yi-jiau told AIT 
that his recent election to the PFP Caucus Leader position 
revealed a deep divide among those PFP members who favor 
returning to the KMT and those, including Hwang, who remain 
loyal to Chairman Soong.  Hwang's Caucus Leader opponent was 
Lin Yu-fang, perhaps the PFP's most outspoken supporter of 
PFP-KMT reunification.  A vote of thirty of the PFP's 
thirty-four LY members resulted in a 15-15 tie.  In the weeks 
before the vote, Soong lobbied heavily for Hwang, and 
ultimately cast the tie-breaking vote for Hwang.  Hwang said 
Lin now "holds a grudge against Soong" for favoring Hwang. 
After his loss, Lin announced publicly that he has not ruled 
out rejoining the KMT.  Hwang said Lin's threat to defect is 
merely a ploy to get control of the PFP's Arms Committee -- 
Lin knows his status within the KMT would be very low, and he 
would lose the high media profile and the authority he enjoys 
as a senior PFP member.  Hwang also said Pan-Blue voters 
question the loyalty and integrity of politicians who switch 
parties.  Lin too would likely suffer this "defector's 
Achilles heel," and would not be a viable KMT candidate for 
some time, especially since the number of candidates will be 
halved in the next LY election. 
 
5. (C) Hwang argued that Ma needs the PFP in order to retake 
the presidency in 2008, because Taiwan voters are split 
almost 50-50 between Pan-Blue and Pan-Green.  Hwang predicted 
the PFP could deliver (or withhold) at least 200,000 votes, 
well in excess of the 23,000 votes which decided the 2004 
presidential election.  (Comment:  This glib suggestion that 
PFP support will put a Blue candidate over the top in 2008 
ignores the reality that the Blue lost in 2004, even with the 
PFP Chairman on the ticket.  End Comment.)  However, Hwang 
said, many PFP members consider Ma's recent push to absorb 
the PFP as a "hostile takeover."  In order to dispel that 
resentment, and to establish its good faith, Hwang said, the 
KMT must agree to run PFP candidates in five of the 
twenty-three December city/county elections: the Keelung 
mayoral race, and the county magistrate races in Hualien, 
Lienchiang, Miaoli, and Changhua.  Hwang stressed that the 
PFP distrusts polls, and will reject any KMT proposal to use 
that method to decide the best Pan-Blue candidates.  The PFP 
simply wants the KMT to "reserve" these five races for PFP 
candidates.  Hwang hopes the KMT will cooperate, but 
acknowledged the PFP does not have the financial resources or 
the candidates to oppose the KMT in all 23 races, should the 
KMT refuse to cooperate. 
 
6. (C) On August 23, the new KMT Secretary General (and 
former Ma campaign manager) Chan Chun-po led a delegation to 
the PFP to discuss improving relations between the parties in 
advance of the December city and county elections.  The China 
Post reported that the parties, after a forty-minute meeting, 
reached a tentative agreement to cooperate in the upcoming 
elections.  A KMT participant reportedly repeated Ma's 
invitation to meet with PFP Chairman James Soong upon Soong's 
return to Taiwan from the US.  Both the KMT and PFP 
participants reportedly expressed optimism about prospects 
for improved relations under Chairman Ma's leadership, but 
final details on election cooperation must wait until PFP 
Secretary General Chin Chin-sheng returns from a visit to 
 
SIPDIS 
Mainland China. 
 
7. (C) Comment:  Before being sworn in as KMT Chairman, Ma 
could not communicate directly with PFP leadership without 
violating KMT protocol; moreover, with James Soong in the US, 
the two men could not meet, and the PFP will not make any 
moves until they do.  After his swearing-in, Ma wasted little 
time in opening up direct communication with the PFP, as he 
had promised during the Chairman campaign.  Unfortunately, Ma 
and other KMT leaders' repeated public calls for KMT-PFP 
reunification have fed a wellspring of resentment and 
distrust within the PFP.  The KMT has enjoyed an increase in 
popularity in recent public opinion polls, in large part due 
to "democratizing" efforts like the contested Chairman race 
and the National Party Congress's direct election of the 
Central Standing Committee.  While Pan-Blue supporters want, 
and would support a KMT-PFP coordinated election strategy, 
trying to force KMT hopefuls to step aside for PFP candidates 
could strain KMT party discipline to the breaking point. 
Realizing their limited power, PFP leaders are forced to hope 
Ma will be able to convince the KMT that giving away a few 
nominations is worth perpetuating the image of an 
increasingly democratic KMT, maybe securing the PFP's 2008 
cooperation in the bargain.  End comment. 
PAAL