US embassy cable - 05RANGOON989

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000989 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, DS/IP/EAP, DS/IP/ITA; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, ASEC, BM 
SUBJECT: BURMA: RUMORS PERSIST THAT SOMETHING'S AMISS 
 
REF: RANGOON 979 
 
Classified By: CDA Karl Stoltz for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: August 25 was yet another day of 
unsubstantiated rumors in Rangoon involving speculation that 
State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) Chairman Than Shwe 
has suffered a medical setback and/or that senior regime 
generals are involved in a power struggle.  If nothing 
unusual has taken place, past regime practice would portend 
an eventual public display of regime unity.  The SPDC's 
prolonged silence and/or absence from public view of the top 
two leaders could generate additional speculation that 
something is amiss.  Our analysis of August 24 (reftel), 
however, still stands; Rangoon is quiet and there are no 
obvious signs of any disruption to the regime's power 
structure.   End Summary. 
 
2. (C) An unusual spate of activity at military hospital No. 
2 in downtown Rangoon continued on August 25, but remains 
unexplained.  According to Embassy sources, the daughter of 
SPDC Vice Chairman Maung Aye gave birth several months 
prematurely at the hospital on August 23.  Such an event 
would trigger increased military security at the hospital, 
but does not fully explain a regular flow of high-level 
government and military visitors.  (Note: Maung Aye's 
daughter, Nanda Aye, is married to the son of Colonel Aung 
Thaung, the Minister of Industry-1.  Her child would be Maung 
Aye's first grandchild.  End Note.) 
 
3. (U) The SPDC is clearly aware of the rumors that there is 
trouble among the top brass.  However, the regime's public 
posture is entirely business-as-usual.  Two of the twelve 
members of the SPDC, Lt-Gen Kyaw Win and Lt-Gen Maung Bo, 
traveled on August 24 to interior locations on routine 
"inspection tours" and state-owned press gave their travels 
top billing on August 25.  Additional top "stories" included 
typically bland coverage of the regime's mass-member 
organization, the Union Solidarity and Development 
Association (USDA), and routine soccer reports. 
 
4. (C) As of COB August 25, there have been no public 
appearances by either Senior General Than Shwe or Vice Senior 
General Maung Aye since the rumors of an alleged struggle 
emerged late on August 23.  However, such brief absences are 
routine and there are no signs that the SPDC has canceled or 
postponed regularly scheduled functions and events. 
According to Thailand Embassy contacts, there has been no 
change to plans for a visit on August 31 by Foreign Minister 
Kanthati, which includes a scheduled September 1 call on Than 
Shwe. 
 
5. (C) Comment:  If nothing has taken place, past regime 
practice would portend an imminent and public display of 
regime unity via a photo op with many or all of the top 
generals.  The SPDC's prolonged silence and/or absence from 
public view of top leaders could generate additional 
speculation that something is amiss.  The diplomatic corps is 
split, with several missions actually convinced, though they 
have not provided compelling evidence, that Maung Aye has 
removed Than Shwe from power.  Several other missions dismiss 
entirely the talk of either illness among the generals or a 
top-level struggle.  From our own perspective, it remains 
uncertain what has or has not taken place within the SPDC. 
However, there are currently no signs of any significant 
disruption.   End Comment. 
Stoltz