US embassy cable - 05CAIRO6539

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 006539 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, EG, Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN, UPDATE #2 
 
REF: CAIRO 6448 
 
Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  One week into the presidential campaign, the 
Presidential Election Commission (PEC) is drawing criticism 
for a lack of transparency.  A local domestic monitoring 
coalition has publicly accused the PEC of obstructing Egypt's 
effort to conduct a free, fair, and transparent presidential 
election.  A visiting delegation from the International 
Republican Institute (IRI) separately told us that the PEC's 
self-imposed isolation is "unprecedented" in their collective 
experience.  The PEC must shortly issue its regulations for 
the actual conduct of the election.  The publication of these 
regulations should clarify the situation, and perhaps 
strengthen the PEC's credibility.  The three leading 
candidates (Mubarak, Nour, and Gom'a) continue to receive 
considerable media coverage, which many GOE critics say is 
skewed in Mubarak's favor.  End summary. 
 
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PEC to Egypt:  We've Got Everything Under Control 
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2.  (C)  In an August 22 press conference, the National 
Campaign for Monitoring Elections (NCME) complained that the 
PEC continues to stonewall the NCME and other aspirant 
monitors who are seeking guarantees that domestic monitors 
will have unfettered access to polling stations.  As noted 
reftel, PEC Chair Mamduh Mara'i's statement--that domestic 
monitors (from civil society groups) would not have access to 
the polling stations--sparked criticism from civil society 
and threat of a lawsuit by these groups against Mara'i.  The 
groups have, in fact, not formally proceeded with their 
lawsuit against Mara'i (reported reftel) apparently out of 
fear that this might spark GOE retaliation, per the new law 
governing presidential elections. 
 
3.  (SBU)  The PEC's legal existence derives from a new law 
("Law 174/2005") "on the organization of the election of the 
President of the Republic."  The law empowers the PEC 
(composed of five judges and five eminent public figures) to 
administer all aspects of the presidential election.  In 
addition, the law stipulates that the PEC members are immune 
from prosecution or lawsuits, except for gross criminal 
actions.  Article 46 of the law states that "anyone who 
insults the chairman or one the members ... during or because 
of the exercise of their functions, shall be punished with 
imprisonment for up to two years and a fine ... or one of 
these two punishments." 
 
4.  (C)  The PEC has yet to issue its regulations for voting 
day, but there has been speculation that the PEC--in keeping 
with the practices that have regulated previous Egyptian 
polls--will not allow people other than voters, poll workers, 
candidate/party agents, and judges to have access to polling 
places.  The domestic monitoring groups are already making 
plans for a worst case scenario.  If they are not given 
permission to enter the polls as monitors, they will use 
powers-of-attorney from candidate agents to access to the 
polls.  This tactic worked with some success during the 
parliamentary elections in 2000 when domestic monitors were 
barred from the polling stations. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Also on August 22, PEC spokesman Osama Attawiya, 
in a report carried by the Kuwait News Agency (KUNA), 
rejected international observers playing a direct role in 
monitoring the polls during the September 7 election. 
Attawiya told KUNA that the PEC would guarantee "full 
judicial supervision" of the presidential election and that 
international monitoring of the polling places would 
"compromise the dignity of the Egyptian judiciary." 
 
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IRI Has Never Seen Anything Like the PEC 
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6.  (C)  An IRI delegation currently visiting Egypt (protect) 
told us on August 22 that the most striking thing they had 
observed so far was the "absolute isolation and stonewalling" 
of the Presidential Election Commission in response to 
requests for information from both domestic and international 
groups about the upcoming poll.  The IRI team, whose members 
have participated in monitoring over 40 international 
elections, said that the self-imposed isolation of the 
Egyptian PEC was unprecedented in their experience.  Emboff 
and USAID staff have also sought to reach out to key PEC 
staff, to discuss the possibility of technical assistance to 
the PEC funded by USAID, but after an introductory meeting, 
the PEC responded with "don't call us, we'll call you." 
 
7.  (C)  Sociologist and civil society activist Saad Eddin 
Ibrahim said that the PEC's isolation and apparent lack of 
accountability was leading Egyptians "to look back to the 
good old days when the Interior Ministry ran elections." 
Ibrahim ruefully observed that "at least you weren't 
threatened with jail for criticizing Interior."  Ibrahim and 
other activists have complained that rather than increasing 
the transparency of the presidential election process, the 
PEC has only increased the secrecy and lack of accountability 
surrounding the process. 
 
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Mubarak Reaches out to the Hinterland, via Video Links 
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8.  (SBU)  In other developments, and reflecting both the 
relative sophistication and deep pocket of the Mubarak 
campaign, the President has been reaching out to the NDP 
faithful in key governorates outside of Cairo by conducting a 
series of video conferences. The video links, which have so 
far included Port Said, Qalubiya, Aswan, and Assiyut, have 
allowed Mubarak to present messages customized to local 
concerns.  For example, in his address to the citizens of 
Port Said, at the northern end of the Suez Canal, Mubarak 
said that he is considering a renewal of Port Said's "Free 
Zone" status, which was revoked in 2002.  (Note:  A 
knife-wielding man attacked Mubarak, and was killed by his 
security detail, in Port Said in 1999.  The city's loss of 
its duty-free status, and the subsequent loss of jobs, was 
widely seen by Egyptian conspiracy theorists as an act of 
vengeance by the GOE for the assassination attempt.  End 
note.) 
 
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1000 Factories, 1 Million Acres, 4 Million Jobs 
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9.  (SBU)  Mubarak continues to hit his talking points, 
especially his ambitious economic development goals, which 
include creating 1000 new factories, reclaiming one million 
acres of desert for agricultural expansion, and creating four 
million new jobs.  He has also stated that he is working to 
secure an FTA with the United States.  There is widespread 
skepticism about Mubarak's economic promises, but this 
skepticism is complemented by a growing realization that 
Mubarak's promises will give the Egyptian public a yard stick 
by which to judge his future performance. 
 
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The Wafd's New Slogan:  "We've Been Suffocated!" 
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10  (SBU)  "Kifaya" ("Enough!") embodied the frustrations of 
the opposition to Mubarak during the first half of 2005, but 
now the Wafd Party's new slogan "Itkhana'na" ("We've been 
suffocated!") seems to have captured the mood of the 
anti-Mubarak opposition.  Although "Itkhana'na" does not seem 
to be boosting the fortunes of Wafd candidate No'man Gom'a in 
his race for second place against Ayman Nour, some observers 
argue that Wafd Deputy Chair, and eminence grise, Mahmoud 
Abaza, has his eye firmly fixed on the parliamentary 
elections.  A poor presidential election showing by the 
uncharismatic Gom'a might clear the way for Abaza to take 
over the party leadership in the run-up to the parliamentary 
elections.  With the public responding to Wafd's 
"Itkhana'na," Abaza might emerge, by dint of Wafd 
parliamentary gains, as the de facto leader of the opposition. 
 
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Comment 
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11.  (C)  The consensus here remains that the campaign 
conditions (including resources, media access, and the law) 
are overwhelmingly in Mubarak's favor.  (Note:  Egyptian 
campaign monitors are set to issue a study on August 25 
documenting the way that coverage of the Mubarak campaign has 
dominated Egypt's media.  End note.)  The PEC has, so far, 
not established itself as a positive force in the 
presidential election process.  It may still be able to 
remedy this problem when it issues its definitive ruling on 
access by outside monitors to the polling stations. 
Mubarak's advantages go far beyond those of an ordinary 
incumbent, and yet even his fiercest critics concede that we 
are witnessing a sea change in the process by which Egypt's 
leader is determined.  Saad Eddin Ibrahim, for example, told 
us that it was simply remarkable to see an Egyptian president 
asking the citizenry to vote for him.  End comment. 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES